Trades and Draft Picks

The Rapids added 3 players today, 2 from the draft and 1 through a trade, and traded away a draft pick as well.

They started the day trading with Cincinnati for forward Calvin Harris.  They sent FCC $100K GAM this year and another $100K next year, plus up to $175K in conditional GAM based on performance.  Cinci also retains a percentage of any transfer fee if the Rapids sell him.  Harris was drafted #2, right in front of Mayaka, in the 2021 draft.  Its always been a rumor that the Rapids were targeting Harris or #1 pick Pereira when they traded up to #3 in that draft, as Mayaka was widely expected to go #1.  They've now got Harris, just 2 years later.  In that time Harris hasn't done much, but maybe a change of scenery will help.  He has one year left on his Generation Adidas deal, and he does require a international slot at the moment, though he's "close" to his green card so if that gets done in the next two months he wouldn't need one when the season starts.

Then at the draft this afternoon Colorado took central defender Moise Bombito out of the University of New Hampshire with the #3 overall pick.  Bombito is a Canadian citizen but will not require an international slot as he came through an accredited Canadian academy.  Tall and good in the air, he'll compete with our other young CB's for backup playing time.  The Rapids then traded their natural first round pick (#12) to Charlotte for $50K in GAM and Charlotte's first round pick next season, plus up to $50K of conditional GAM based on how their pick does.

With the 12th pick in the 2nd round we selected goalkeeper Oliver Semmle from Marshall University.  Semmle is a German citizen who will give Abe Rodriguez competition for the backup spot behind Yarbrough.

The Rapids, as is their ilk, passed with their third round selection.  As we've seen under Padraig Smith Colorado tends to target one player in the draft and get him, and then trade their remaining picks for value.  What they can't move they then only use if they see a player worth their time.

So all in all today we added three international players with potential but all of them are unlikely to contribute much in 2023.  We still need some significant moves to be competitive this year and the clock is ticking.  We open camp the week after the holidays end.

2023 Schedule Released!

At noon today MLS dropped the 2023 schedule  The Rapids will start on February 26th in Seattle and finish at home against FSL on October 21st.  In-between will be 32 other games and the Leagues Cup, plus the U.S. Open Cup.  Looking at some of the highlights:

• 14 Saturday night games, 2 Wednesday night games, and 1 Tuesday night game (July 4th).  All home kickoffs are at 7:30pm except the final match with is TBD.
• All away kickoffs except the opener are at 7:30 local time for the match.  The opener in Seattle is at 5pm local/6pm MT due to being on FS1 (ironically I'm flying home from a family gathering two days before where everyone else is flying home to Seattle, should have gone home with them!)
• This scheduling is part of the AppleTV deal where all games will be on Wednesdays and Saturdays with 7:30pm local kickoffs, unless the FOX TV deal needs them in a different time slot.
• Rocky Mountain Cup matches are home on May 20th and October 21st and in Utah on Labor Day weekend.
• Portland will be the opponent for our annual 4th of July match
• Jameson Night September 16th!
• Eastern Conference opponents are at Charlotte, Atlanta, Columbus, and Orlando, and hosting Philly, Cincinnati, and New England.
• You'll notice Miami is not on that list.  That means in the 4 years they've been in the league we will still have not faced them, unless we matchup in the Open Cup or Leagues Cup (or MLS Cup final).
• We play expansion St. Louis on April 22nd at the Dick and July 1st in St. Louis.

Beyond that the big thing to look at with the schedule is the rhythm of the games.  Only once do the Rapids play 3 home games in the a row, on July 4th, 9th, and 15th, leading into the Leagues Cup break.  They never have more than 2 games in a row on the road.

As far as busy 3 game weeks (by which I mean anytime we have a midweek game between two weekend matches or two Wednesday matches with a weekend match in-between) it happens five times.  The first is in mid-May where we have a midweek trip to Atlanta between home games against Philly and FSL.  After a week with no midweek games we then have a trip to Columbus sandwiched between home matches against Cinci and San Jose.  The next time it happens is over the 4th of July match where as mentioned we play in St. Louis on Saturday, Portland at home on the 4th, then stay in Commerce City to host Dallas on Saturday.  The last two times are like the first two, with 3 games, a week without a mid-week game, and 3 games.  In this case it starts with New England at home on September 16th, Seattle at home on the 20th, and then a trip to Portland on the 23rd.  After a midweek off its then a Texas Trio of Austin at home on Sept. 3oth and then trips to Dallas and Houston on October 4th and 7th.

So almost half our games will be played in 3-game weeks.  Squad rotation is going to be important this season.

The next major offseason news is tomorrow, when the Superdraft will be held tomorrow afternoon.  The Rapids hold the 12th pick in each of the 3 rounds, but they also hold the #3 overall pick which they acquired in the trade with Toronto for Mark-Anthony Kaye.  Some talk that forward Ilijah Paul, Pac-12 player of the year out of Washington, might be available at #3.  If so he fills an obvious need for the team and you can't go wrong drafting a Husky.  Go Dawgs!

Beitashour In, Zardes Out

Today the Rapids announced that Steven Beitashour has re-signed on a one year deal with a team option for 2024.  This gives us added depth at outside back and he'll fill the "grizzled veteran" role now that Drew Moor has retired.  I still think we need a regular starter at LB in front of him but this at least gives us some wiggle room.

Yesterday Austin FC announced they had signed Gyasi Zardes to a new 3 year deal.  This was the type of deal the Rapids couldn't afford to offer him since there were a number of clauses in the trade for his rights with Columbus that would have kicked in that would have sent GAM to the Crew from our coffers.  I am not at all surprised that we passed on making a deal with Zardes given that, it was the right move.  But it leaves us looking for a #9 still.

I have heard a rumor that no deal could be reached to bring Felipe Gutierrez back on a loan (or outright) so the only remaining player from our 2022 roster we expected to try to bring back after they were released (or their contract was up) was Michael Edwards.  Even if we bring Edwards back I don't expect him to be a significant contributor in 2023.  That means any more additions will be new to the team.

Rapids Acquire Kévin Cabral from the Galaxy

Today Colorado made its first big move off the season, acquiring French winger and Designated Player Kévin Cabral from the LA Galaxy in exchange for $600K of GAM in 2023 and $400K of GAM in 2024.  LA will pay half of Cabral's salary and retain a percentage of any transfer fee should the Rapids sell him.

Cabral was acquired by the Galaxy in April of 2021 for over $6M and in 61 appearances had 6 goals and 5 assists for LA.  Prior to that he was with French Ligue 2 side Valenciennes FC where he came up through their youth academy, having originally started in PSG's academy.  In 63 appearances with Valenciennes he had 11 goals.

At 23 years old (24 in July) Cabral is still early in his career but his start in MLS was not good.  Widely considered one of the worst DP signings in recent years by the Galaxy he was an albatross on their roster and with their upcoming transfer ban for overpaying Pavon and not reporting him as a DP and the $1M GAM fine for it the Galaxy were really on the ropes.  This move helps bail them out of the hole they dug.

On the plus side however, getting them to eat half his $1.65M salary and having already paid his transfer fee means the Rapids are only on the hook for the GAM and for about $150K in cash for each of the next 3 years to pay off the amount between the max salary and 50% of his salary.  So the cost here for a 6 million dollar player 20 months ago is minimal.  He does take a DP slot, but lets be realistic, the Rapids weren't going to use all those slots anyway.

There are still a couple of big negatives for me in this deal, and I think I come down on the side of "this had better work, because this looks like a bad deal right now".  First of all paying the same amount as we got for Kellyn Acosta seems out of whack on this move.  Either we sold Acosta cheaply or we overspent on Cabral, because as a MLS player Acosta is a lot more valuable than Cabral  Secondly, letting a fellow Western Conference team off the hook like this is not a great move.  LA was going to bein a world of hurt, and still will be, but since the transfer ban doesn't take effect until summer this gives them a chance to fill a DP slot before the winter window closes, and replaces the GAM they lost in the fine.  Third, this deal reeks of another case of Plan A and B for a new signing fell apart, so now we need to find a Plan C we can actually get over the line.  Similar to Zardes and Gutierrez last year.

Regardless of how you feel, the Rapids FO (Padraig Smith and co.) have put all their chips on Max and Cabral this season.  That's $2M+ investment in two players that so far haven't shown to be up to making a difference in MLS.  I can't see us making another major attacking move after those, so we will live or die on how that midfield works out.

In related news, earlier this week Minnesota United announced the signing of Clint Irwin, so as expected Yarbrough will have a new backup this year.

Rapids Pass On Esteves

Yesterday the Colorado Rapids announced that they would not exercise the buy clause in Lucas Esteves' loan contract.   This was set at $1M for 50% of his rights (or in Football Manager terms, a $1M transfer fee with a 50% sell-on clause).  In order for that to make sense the Raids would have had to have gotten at least $2M in value from Esteves, either in his play or in a future transfer fee.

Colorado reportedly sold Vines for $2M+, so essentially Esteves would have to be as valuable to the Rapids as Sam Vines was.  Esteves is not as valuable as Sam Vines.  This was a good decision by the club even with a lack of an obvious replacement at the moment.  The team should not throw money away just because they feel like they don't have an option.  We're not going to get better by using our limited fund on players who aren't worth it.

This, however, leaves let another hole for the Front Office to fill in an offseason that's starting to get short.  I expect training camp to open somewhere between January 9th and the 16th.  Last year it opened on the 10th but we had a CCL game to play before league play started, which meant we had to open camp a little earlier.  Essentially in about 6 weeks players will be reporting and we only have half a starting XI right now.

Goal Bassett Returns

The Rapids made it official today, recalling Cole Bassett from his loan to Fortuna Sittard.  Based on the media they posted today he's actually been back for a couple of days at least (sun and minimal snow at the Dick suggests those images were filmed Tuesday or Wednesday).  Things in the Netherlands didn't work out for Bassett at either Feyenoord or Fortuna Sittard.  Both teams seemed to change direction after the decision to bring Bassett in on loan and her wasn't in the new plans.  At the same time, a player has to force a manager to consider him even if that wasn't the plan and that never seemed to happen either.

Colorado posted an interview with Cole today and it sounds like he's all-in on being back here for the 2023 season.  He turns 22 in the middle of the season so he should know that putting up a season or two like his 2021 season for the Rapids will get him another chance to go to Europe, hopefully long-term next time.  Until then he's going to provide the kind of pressure for playing time to other midfielders that was missing in 2022, which is good for the Rapids.

Colorado Has A Jersey Sponsor For 7 Seasons

It leaked over the weekend (and I had heard rumors long before that) but today it became official.  UCHealth will be the Colorado Rapids jersey sponsor through the 2029 season.  UCHealth is short for University of Colorado Health, one of the larger health care systems on the Front Range and based in Aroura.   Terms of the deal were not announced but the TransAmerica deal was reportedly for between $2 and $3 million a year ("coincidentally" about the same amount as Tim Howard's salary) and the base for MLS jersey sponsorships is set around $2 million according to talk, so I expect this is likely in the $3 million range.  Its not massive money, but that's still some good investment for a spot we got $0 for in 2022.

As to the jersey itself the logo looks good and I appreciate it being done in the same blue as the trim on the kit.  So many sponsors are stickers for their colors even if they clash with the shirt, causing an ugly look (any number of the gambling site sponsors in the English leagues for example).  This is a good look, equal to the TransAmerica logo and better than the short-lived Ciao! look.

Some fans are a little disappointed that its a smaller local company without a "big" name, but I think that undersells things a bit.  First of all a 7 year deal is some nice stability in an area the club has had no stability in.  You're likely not going to get that from a major sponsor that isn't going to commit to a smaller club like ours for that long.  Secondly, its not a MLM like Herbalife (Galaxy) or LifeVantage (FSL).  Thirdly, just because its a smaller company doesn't mean it can't be beneficial.  Since they started in MLS Orlando City has been sponsored by Orlando Health, pretty much the area's equivalent to UCHealth.  When Orlando entered MLS in 2015 I, unfortunately, was spending some time in Orlando Health facilities with a sick family member.  The Orlando City SC logo was everywhere.  Big logos on the front of buildings, flyers and promotion materials inside the facilities, etc.  They were proud to be sponsoring the team and wanted to promote it.  Hopefully UCHealth will do the same.

In the end this added money removes one more excuse for the club to not spend money this offseason.  We've got a new multi-million dollar sponsorship, we've got $5+ million a season coming in from the Apple TV deal, and we've still got a couple of million in GAM banked from our deals in the last year or so.  If the Rapids Front Office is doing their job it should be a big offseason.

Bassett Returning?

Before we get tot he Bassett news/rumor I want to mention that, as expected, no Rapids were taken in today's expansion draft.

Now, this report out of the Netherlands via 1908.nl states that the Rapids are likely to exercise their recall option in Cole Bassett's loan this winter.  When the new deal was created between Feyenoord, Fortuna Sittard, and the Rapids to allow Bassett to move to Fortuna Sittard this fall, it included a clause that if he didn't reach a minimum number of minutes/appearances before the end of the year the Rapids would have the right to terminate the loan and bring him home.  This report states that according to sources Colorado is preparing to do just that.

As much as this probably sucks for Cole, it makes a ton of sense for him and the Rapids.  If he's not getting minutes he's losing valuable development time on the bench.  At 21 years old he needs to be playing and not riding the pine.  Colorado has a need in midfield and he knows the system and most of the players so he should be able to slot right back in.  He gave it a full calendar year in the Netherlands with two different teams and couldn't break in as a regular starter.  He still has two years on his Rapids contract.  Time to come back, hit it hard for a MLS season, and hope for another shot in Europe next offseason.

Roster And Expansion Draft News, Finally

With the expansion draft coming tomorrow the Rapids finally released their end-of-year roster news and their protected list for the draft.  Starting with the roster moves:

Options picked up: Barrios, Keita, Larraz, Markanich, Rodriguez, Rubio

Options declined: Beitashour, Edwards, Mayaka

Out of contract: Irwin, Zardes

Loans expired: Esteves, Gutierrez

Everyone else is under contract for 2023.  Colorado is negotiating with Zardes, Edwards, and Beitashour about coming back in 2023 under different terms than their options.  They're also talking to Gutierrez about coming back but that would either be a new loan or paying a transfer fee for him.  The Rapids have until December 1st to decide if they want to exercise their buy option in Esteves loaned, reported to be $1M for 50% of his rights,

Really the only surprise here for me is cutting bait on Mayaka after just two seasons, and being in position to do so.  Normally a Generation Adidas contract is longer than that, and generally the league invests more into those players.  In the 2021 draft Mayaka was seen by most commentators as the "most MLS ready" player in the draft, yet the two players taken in front of him (Daniel Pereira and Calvin Harris) have a combined 79 appearances in 2 years and Mayaka has 0.  I can tell you that the Rapids did not buy the "most ready player" line and when they moved up to third in that draft it was with the belief that Mayaka was going to be selected by Austin or Cincinnati in front of them and they made the move expecting Harris to be available, but they ranked Pereira ranked ahead of Mayaka as well.

This is not to suggest that I think the Rapids are making a mistake moving on from him.  From what little I've seen of the Switchbacks and Rapids 2 the last two years he did not stand out, and the reports from people who followed those teams more closely were that he did not look particularly good playing at that level.  He also requires an international slot, so it makes it hard to keep him as an on-going project if they're not seeing improvement.

Outside of that I think I called the rest of these moves except Barrios, who I wanted to see brought back on a lower contract.  And I still don't want to see us spending $1M on Esteves.

Now that we know who's here and who's not, we can figure out the expansion protected list.  Because of the end of his GA contract Mayaka i not automatically protected, but we obviously won't be prtecting him.  The 12 we did protect:

Yarbrough, Abubakar, Rosenberry, Vallecilla, Acosta, Price, Max, Galvan, Barrios, Lewis, Nicholson, Rubio

Along with our auto-protected players:

Rodrigues, Anderson, Edwards, Keita, Travis, Bassett, Larraz, Priso, Toure, Yapi

That leaves these 10 players available in tomorrow's expansion draft:

Irwin, Beitashour, Esteves, Moor, Markanich, Wilson, Gutierrez, Mayaka, Warner, Zardes

I went 10 for 12 on my expansion draft picks.  I protected Zardes and Markanich over Acosta and Nicholson.  After further thought Acosta probably makes more sense than Zardes because as a free agent the only thing St. Louis can get out of selecting Zardes is a little more freedom to offer him more money, which would be a waste of a pick.  I don't think Acosta is at any risk of being picked but its still more likely than Zardes.

Nicholson over Markanich makes no sense to me though, as Sam looked like a shell of himself this season and I can't imagine St. Louis taking a flyer on him.  Markanich at least has the benefit of being young and showing a few flashes this season.  Honestly though I look at those 10 players and think "there's got to be better options elsewhere".  I predict this will be the seventh straight expansion draft that a Rapid is not picked (Cascio and Mwanga in 2014 were the last ones).

Sad News For Sam Vines

Yesterday Sam Vines posted on his Instagram that he had suffered a broken tibia in practice on Friday and had immediate surgery to repair it.  They inserted 2 screws and the prognosis is for a full recovery, but he'll be out of commission for 3-4 months.

Obviously that means he won't be able to go to the World Cup in Qatar in two weeks.  He had an outside chance to make the roster being announced on Wednesday, though most experts seemed to think he'd be one of the final names left off the list.  Still only Gregg Berhalter and Jedi Robinson really know the extent of his injury and Vines is the best pure LB available to back him up so there was certainly the possibility of him being on the plane.  Now, sadly, Sam will have to turn his focus into challenging Robinson for the next 3.5 years to lock up a sot on the 2026 roster.

Sam Vines was really the only hope for a strong Rapids connection on the U.S. roster, depending on how you think of Kellyn Acosta now (personally I don't really think its a strong connection).  Rapids 2 midfielder Daniel Chacon will be on Costa Rica's roster.  Chacon was signed midseason by Rapids 2 and immediately loaned back to hiss Costa Rican team to allow him to focus on the World Cup, so he has yet to play a game in a Rapids kit.  No other current Rapid or Rapid homegrown is expected to be in Qatar.

If there's any silver lining to the Sam Vines news, any reason for me to buy one of the lousy U.S. kits is now out the window.  Now I'll likely get a Japanese or South Korean alternate kit instead.

Expansion Draft Time

St. Louis is joining MLS next season, which means its time for yet another expansion draft, and yet another set of protected player lists.  So, time for me to take my best swing at who I think we'll protect.

The rules are the same as last year.  Teams can protect 12 players, and their homegrown and Generation Adidas players 25 years old or younger are automatically protected.  Teams can lose at most one player in the 5 picks St. Louis will make, and anyone who lost a player to Charlotte is not part of this expansion draft (Colorado didn't lose anyone).  Teams must protect at least 3 international players unless they have less than 3, then they must protect all but 1 (and auto-protected HG's/GA's don't count).

So for the Rapids, first our auto-protected players:

Seb Anderson, Cole Bassett*, Michael Edwards, Aboubacar Keita, Ollie Larraz, Phillip Mayaka, Ralph Priso, Abe Rodriguez, Yaya Toure, Jackson Travis, Darren Yapi

* - I assume Bassett's homegrown status means he's still automatically protected.  If he's not for some reason he clearly becomes one of our 12 protected players.

So after that group we have to protect 3 internationals, and honestly I only want to protect 3:

Max - As disappointing as he was, it would be stupid to give away a million dollar asset.

Brain Galvan - He's an exciting young player who will hopefully bounce back from his ACL injury

Jack Price - I mean, duh

That leaves us with 9 more slots to fill:

Lalas Abubakar - He may be frustrating at times but he's our best central defender and would be an easy choice for St. Louis if he were unprotected

Michael Barrios - I don't want to pick up his option, but if we could bring him back at a lower number I'd want to have his rights

Jonathan Lewis - Too much potential value to leave unprotected

Anthony Markanich - He's a young player that showed a bit of potential

Keegan Rosenberry - Obviously

Diego Rubio - Duh

William Yarbrough - Another obvious choic

After this group there's two open slots, but not two obvious players I want to protect.  So I'm going to go with these two but only for lack of a better choice:

Gustavo Vallecilla - Just to protect the money we put into getting him

Gyasi Zardes - I've heard that the payment to the Crew if we re-sign him only kicks in (or maybe only kicks in at 100%) if we sign him to a 3 year deal.  I'd consider re-signing him for a 1+1 deal at sum $1M if he'd take it, so we should protect our opportunity to do that if that report is accurate.

With this the unprotected players are:

Bryan Acosta, Steven Beitashour, Lucas Esteves, Felipe Gutierrez, Clint Irwin, Drew Moor, Sam Nicholson, Collen Warner, Danny Wilson

I don't seed anyone in that list St. Louis is likely to select that would hurt us if they were claimed.  Some of them would actually help us if St. Louis picked them up.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Its been a few weeks since our disappointing season ended, so its time to take stock and move forward.  By the end of next week the Rapids will have made their season-ending roster moves and will be preparing for the numerous offseason MLS roster machinations (trades, expansion draft, re-entry draft) that will occur between MLS Cup and Thanksgiving,  Then things go a bit quiet until right before Christmas when the Superdraft is on Dec. 21st  We'll cover each of those events in detail closer to them, but for now I want to look at the current options on the roster.

With some help from Joseph Samelson on the contract status I'm going to separate the players into groups of "out of contract/loan", "team held options", and "under contract" and go through what I think the Rapids should do.

Out of Contract/Loan:

Gyasi Zardes - Even if you could negotiated him down to half his $1.5M contract, there's still the reported ~$750K of GAM we would ow to Columbus if we re-sign him as part of the trade.  Zardes just isn't worth that.  There are better ways to use that money.  I think the Rapids need to let him walk.

Clint Irwin - I think Clint's second stint in Colorado has come to an end.  Its time to let Abe Rodriguez claim the backup spot and sign another young keeper to give him competition.  Hard to justify $200K a year for a to-be-34-year-old backup who seems to be falling off.

Collen Warner - We're pretty sure Warner is out of contract though the union doesn't list him as a free agent (which he would be).  Assuming he is a free agent the Rapids should consider bringing him back in a limited role.  We should be able to do better than relying on him to start any games but as a senior leader coming off the bench to close out games we could do worse.  Consider it the Drew Moor role.  Warner was on $84K last season, and presumably wouldn't be looking for/expecting a big salary bump at this point in his career.

Felipe Gutierrez - Gutierrez's loan was just until the end of the season.  To retain him we'd have to buy him in a transfer or convince Universidad Catolica to loan him to us again.  He's 32 years old and was making $700K last year.  I don't think that's where we should be investing our money.  If a loan is a possibility it might be worth keeping that in our back pocket for a "in case of emergency break glass" option this offseason, but it kind of feels like that's why we got him on loan this summer when nothing else happened in the window.

Lucas Esteves - His loan from Palmeiras is up and I don't think we should look to renew it or buy him.  Rumors are that Palmeiras wants $1M for 50% of his rights.  So essentially they place the same value on him as we did on Sam Vines, and Esteves is no Sam Vines.

Team Held Options:

Drew Moor - Retired, obviously.  But if he wanted to come back we should have brought him back.

Diego Rubio - Yes you pick the option up.  There are hints that Colo Colo might be interested in a transfer but that rumor has been out there for 2-3 years at this point.  There's some question to if Colo Colo could come up with any kind of transfer fee with their current financial difficulties.  It would have to be at least close to Sam Vines money to consider selling him I think.

Michael Barrios - He's going to be 32 years old, is making $680K, and didn't break 2000 minutes this season.  I don't see how you can justify picking up the option at that number.  We're better off to release him and try to re-negotiate a contract at a lower number.

Steven Beitashour - The 35 year old played a surprising amount of games this year (and played well), and with Drew Moor retiring there's a need for veteran leadership on the bench.  Assuming he wants to come back the Rapids should pick up his option.

Aboubacar Keita - You have to bring him back off injury to see what you have.  He should be a good addition but you never know after an ACL tear.

Anthony Markanich - On a rookie contract, doesn't hurt to pick it up

Ollie Larraz - Had some good flashes in 2021, as a homegrown you bring him back and hope the injury didn't set him back too much

Under contract:

As far as we can tell everyone else is under contract for 2023.  I'm going to go through some players I think the Rapids should look to move if an opportunity comes up, but I'm not going to go through everyone on the roster.  The rest are either obviously core players like Price and Yarbrough, are unlikely to have an option to move like Max, or are young kids who we just don't know enough about like Seb Anderson and Michael Edwards.

Jonathan Lewis - For whatever reason Lewis just can't put it together as a 90 minute player.  He's a good to sometimes great super sub but if he hasn't locked down a starting spot by now I don't think he will.  If a good offer comes our way we should absolutely take it.

Lalas Abubakar/Danny Wilson - I put these two together because I think they're both in the same position.  One of them can start but not both of them.  If we get an offer for one of them we should take it.  Ideally I'd like to move Wilson and keep Lalas, because I think Lalas is the better player.  Wilson can start but probably shouldn't unless its in a 5 man backline.

Sam Nicholson - I'm sorry, but whatever he had in his first tenure wit the team he no longer has.  The fact that he's on a multi-year deal at $300K is going to hurt us for a while.  If we get an out, take it.

Bryan Acosta - He's a MLS replacement level midfielder.  Which means we can probably find somebody to contribute what he contributes at a lower number but he's not hurting us being out there.

Gustavo Vallecilla - Right now this looks like the worst move we've made in a few years.  A huge price tag for a guy that doesn't look close to MLS ready.  I doubt we'll ever get back what we invested in him, now we just need to minimize the damage as much as possible.

So, the tl;dr version:

Allow to leave: Zardes, Irwin, Gutierrez, Esteves

Pass on options: Barrios

Move if there's an offer: Lewis, Nicholson, Acosta, Vallecilla, Abubakar OR Wilson

Time To Face The Music

End of the season means looking back to what we thought was going to happen.  Specifically going back through my preseason predictions.  I have a feeling I had a bad year:

• The Rapids make the playoffs without too much sweat, but in 5th place so they don't host a playoff game 

• Because of that they're one and done again

Um, no.  Very, very no.  10th place finish, 4 points out of a playoff spot.  Zero and done.

• Colorado beats Comunicaciones in the first round of the CCL, marking the first time they've ever advanced in that competition, but then gets knocked out by NYCFC in the next round

Again, no.  Crashed and burned in the first round losing a PK shootout at home.

• Because they get a bye to the 4th round of USOC play, to allow for CCL play, they end up facing off against another MLS team and do not advance from their first game

Nailed this one, not that it was that hard.  1 point.

• We win the Rocky Mountain Cup, somehow

*sigh*

• We will not make a significant signing before the season starts in 12 days

 Well, that was correct.  1 point.

• This summer we sign what is a notable #9 for the Rapids, but he does not have a significant impact on the 2022 season (but looks like a good signing for the future)

I going to give myself a half-point for this one because we did get Zardes and he didn't have a significant impact on the season, but it wasn't in summer and its not a good signing for the future.

• Barrios wins the Golden Boot again

Nope

• Rubio does not finish the season in Colorado

Nope, Rubio stayed and won the Golden Boot

• Max shows us what the Rapids saw in him, but it takes a bit before we see it

If I wanted to stretch for a half-point I could here, since he did start showing something in the last few games, but not enough to legitimately make that claim.

• Bassett has a quiet end of the 2021-22 season for Feyenoord, but comes out on fire in the fall

Half a point.  He did have a quiet end to the season, but at the moment he looks more likely to be playing in Colorado after the winter window than the Netherlands.

• Trusty leaving hurts the team in the last third of the season as Keita won't really be starter ready until after he takes his lumps this year.

Trusty staying hurt the team as much as him going, but it wasn't good either way.  1 point.

• Trusty becomes a late scratch from the WC roster.  Kellyn Acosta goes to Qatar (yes, we qualify) as does Sam Vines

Unknown at this time but still possible, if unlikely.

 

Well out of a possible 12 points with 1 outstanding I got 4 and that a being a bit generous.  Compared to 5.5 of 11 last year and 8 of 11 in 2020 I'm going the wrong way.  Much like the Rapids.

Your 2022 Rapids MVP Is...

 ...Diego Rubio.  I mean, obviously, right?

This wasn't even close.  Rubio set a new team record for goals + assists in a season (23), tied the team's single-season goal scoring record (16), and set a new record for career game-winning goals (13).  And he did it in a year where the Rapids struggled to win a third of their games.  Diego was involved in 50% of the goals Colorado scored this season, and when you look at other stats you see he has the most shots on the team, by over 60% (Rubio had 93, Lewis had 57).  Rubio also had the most shots on target, and almost double the fouls suffered than anyone else on the team.

Essentially whatever offense we had in 2022 largely went through Diego Rubio.  His 16 goals and 7 assists were career highs for him as well.  At 29 (30 in May) you would think he's probably got another couple of good years in him, which is good since we have him under contact with an option for next year, an option I expect the team to pick up.  In a year where a lot of things went wrong, his play gives us something to build around in 2023.

That's A Wrap!

The Rapids pulled off a smash and grab in Austin, bringing a point home with them to end the season.  While Colorado got some (very?) favorable officiating, the over-reaction from the Austin faithful to the result in what was, in the end, a meaningless game was the most entertaining part of it.  While the two waved off offside goals, one clear and one more questionable, are things we see go either way in games the foul that wasn't called on Abubakar late in the game was a huge miss that immediately came back to bite the ref as Lalas had the assist on the tying goal.  That said though, the 1-1 draw vs. a 1-0 win for Austin changed nothing in the league, so the Austin FC announcers going off as the game ended about how the official should never ref again went from professional to homer fan commentary in about 5 seconds.

The most interesting thing from the Rapids POV in this match was that tying goal, by none other than Diego Rubio.  With it he tied Conor Casey's single season record of 16 goals.  Combined with setting a new team record of 23 goals + assists, Rubio had arguably the best offensive season in team history.  He was directly involved in 50% of the goals the team scored (which isn't a team record, Spencer was involved in 58% in 2001, which I'm guessing is the record).  We'll get to the official View From the Couch MVP award in the next week or two, but it will be no surprise who gets it.

With that, this season is over.  Colorado had its 3rd worst year-over-regression, dropping back over 0.5 PPG from their 2021 pace.  Some of that was likely inevitable, given the record setting year we had, but this was a much bigger step back than anyone expected.  We'll get into that, roster analysis, and the rest over the next couple of weeks while MLS works through the playoffs.  Remember that we have an expansion draft for St. Louis coming up after MLS Cup.  Oh, and of course the World Cup.

One Last Game

Well we've made it.  To the end of the season and to the end of the Altitude blackout.  After Sunday both will be over, thankfully.  Before that we have an almost meaningless game in Austin.  Almost meaningless because with 1 point Austin can clinch the third best record in the league, which is slightly meaningful for Leagues Cup seeding and they would qualify for the CCL if LAFC/, Philly, or Orlando win MLS Cup (since they've already qualified in other ways the extra slot would go to the best unqualified team).  Even if they lose though NYCFC would have to win and make up 6 goal differential, so odds are they'll get it regardless.  The only thing the Rapids are playing for is where they'll pick in the draft.  Individually Rubio is looking for a goal to tie Casey's season goal-scoring record and a brace to break it.

Other than that, there's not much to get excited about this week.  Really just playing out the string and getting to the offseason.  The ending of the Altitude blackout comes with one negative, this will be Richard Fleming's and Marcelo Balboa's last time in the booth, barring an unexpected offer from MLS/Apple to join their commentary teams next season.  And if you watch through ESPN+ they usually go with the home announcers, so you won't be able to hear them that way.  Hopefully somebody will post a decent link to a stream for this one.  Kickoff for this final game is at 3pm on Sunday and for one last time, TV is still blacked out.

2023 Leagues Cup Format Revealed

Today MLS and Liga MX announced what the 2023 Leagues Cup will look like.  As a reminder, the Leagues Cup is going through a major revamp next season.  Instead f being roughly equivalent to the Europa League, the Leagues Cup will now be a full-month tournament between MLS and Liga MX.

MLS will stop league games from July 21st and Liga MX will delay the start of its season until after Aug 19th.  In that month all 47 MLS and Liga MX teams will compete in a World Cup style competition.  The format:

The 2022 MLS Cup winner and the better of the Liga MX's 2022 Clasura and Apertura will receive a by to the knockout rounds.

The other 45 teams will be split into 15 groups of 3 teams.  Top 2 teams in each group advance to the knockout rounds.

The groups will be seeded with the top 15 MLS teams in 2022 (so the 14 playoff teams and the best team to miss the playoffs) being placed into a group and the top 15 Liga MX teams being placed into the groups in reverse order.  So LAFC, as Shield winners (assuming they don't get the bye as MLS Cup winners), will get the 1st pot, and they'll be seeded with the 15th best Liga MX team.  Philly, as 2nd overall in the Shield race, will get the 14th best Liga MX team, etc.  The remaining 13 MLS teams and 2 Liga MX teams will then be drawn randomly into the groups.  There is some talk about the groups being regionalized but its unclear if that's accurate or not.  The Rapids can do no better than 16th, so this is where they'll be.

Once the groups are decided the group matches will be (home team listed first):

Seeded MLS team - Seeded Liga MX team

Seeded MLS team - Unseeded MLS/Liga MX team

Unseeded MLS/Liga MX team - Seeded Liga MX team

Yes, this year at least all games will be played in the U.S..  The seeded MLS team will host both their matches, the unseeded MLS team will host their Liga MX match and go to the seeded MLS team.  In the two groups that have one MLS team and two Liga MX teams the MLS team will host both Liga MX teams and the head-to-head matchup between the Liga MX teams will be played at a predetermined site in the U.S.  (I'm guessing places like Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego, etc.).

The other twist is that there will be no draws.  Games that are tied after 90 minutes will go to Kicks From the Mark, with the winner getting 2 points and the loser 1.

After the group stage the tournament becomes a standard 32-team knockout competition with the higher finishing MLS team hosting, and intra-Liga MX matches being hosted at predetermined sites.  The final and third placed games will both be on Aug 19th at the home of the highest remaining MLS team (again, with a predetermined location if no MLS team makes the final 4).

The top 3 teams get spots in the 2024 CONCACAF Champions League, and there's a substantial prize fund being put together too.

So now that you have the facts, here's the analysis.  This is stupid.  15 teams are going to play 2 games and be done, and odds are those are going to be largely MLS teams.  So midway through the season we're going to stop for a month and have a bunch of teams sit around for 2-3 weeks not playing games.  Bad enough that we (correctly) do that during major international tournaments like the Gold Cup and World Cup, but this is self-inflicted.  If the MLS Cup winner or Liga MX top team fall on their face in the Round of 32 they'll play 1 game that month.  And its not like you know ahead of time who's going to be knocked out so you could set up friendlies.  Its going to be a bunch of scrimmages against USL teams to keep the rust off, which is just a season momentum killer.

Maybe once team 30 joins MLS and there are 48 teams, so you can do 12 groups of 4 and then have the group winners and top 4 second place teams go to a round of 16 knockout field.  That way everyone is guaranteed 3 games and there are only 4 rounds of games after teams get knocked out instead of 5.  Until then though, some teams (like, odds are, the Rapids) are going to play one home game against a Liga MX side, go to a MLS team, and then sit around for 3 weeks.  Which, yay?

Best case scenario for the Rapids next year will be to end up in a group with a team like LAFC or Austin, two teams we've beaten recently on the road, and thus with one of the weaker Liga MX teams.  Worst case would be something like Minnesota, which seems to have our number at their place, which would also include a top Liga MX team like Santos.  That's a recipe for a quick exit.

Colorado Finishes Home Season On High Note

The Rapids didn't end on a whimper, taking 3 points out of a (likely) top 3 team in the West with a 1-0 win over Dallas on Saturday to close out DSG Park for 2022.  Diego Rubio became only the second Rapid all-time to score 15 goals in a season with the loan tally of the game and not even a ridiculous red card could spoil the result.  Colorado will finish out the season with a game in Austin next Sunday.

With the goal Diego Rubio set anew team records for goals + assists in a season (22) and career game winning goals (13).  He needs 1 goal against Austin to tie Conor Casey for the team season goal scoring record at 16 (Casey did it in 2009).  He was also named C38's Player of the Year.

We also got the expected final home appearance by Drew Moor, who came in after Vallecilla committed an obvious and wildly unnecessary red card, taking out a Dallas attacker almost  off the field.  This  necessitated a formation change, pulling Zardes off and putting Moor on to fill the gap, and he immediately made a pair of clearances en route to clearing 4 balls in the last 10+ minutes to snuff out any hope Dallas had.

With the win Colorado ends the season with a 10-5-2 home record, for 35 points.  Last season, when the team won the West and set a new team record for points, they gathered 34 points at home.  Clearly our issues this year were anytime we got on an airplane we forgot how to play soccer.  7 road points (with one to play) does not bode well to finishing the season with a win.

Saying Goodbye Tomorrow

The final home game of the season is tomorrow and while our slim playoff hopes left last week, tomorrow is going to be a home departure for a couple of notable Rapids.  The big one will be Drew Moor, who announced his retirement today.  After an 18 year career its ending (at least at home) almost where it started, with the Rapids hosting his original team FC Dallas.  Drew is an absolute club legend and he retires with the 2nd most starts, appearances, and minutes in team history, trailing only Pablo Mastroeni in all three categories.  He's also one of only 6 field players in league history to reach 400 appearances, more than half of them with the Rapids.  A member of the 2010 MLS Cup winning squad, he's going to go into the Gallery of Honor in the future, and the Rapids press release about his retirement mentions "celebrating him early next year", so expect an induction ceremony at halftime of one of our first home games.

On top of all that, Drew has been a fan favorite since his arrival in 2009 and his return in 2020.  I expect one of the subs tomorrow has already been reserved to get him into the game (if they don't start him, because why not?), which will be his 210th regular season appearance in burgundy.  There's been a lot of talk about what he might do next, everything from coaching to media, but whatever it is I hope the Rapids find room for him to do it here.

Speaking of media, that's the other farewell tomorrow.  Centennial 38 will be giving our favorite commentary duo a sendoff at the tailgate tomorrow, with Fleming and Balboa calling their last game together next week with the Austin away game.  The Apple TV deal means there won't be any "home" and "away" commentary teams next season and it seems unlikely that the duo will be hired to work for the new MLS/Apple streaming setup.  After 10 years they are wrapping it up and since tomorrow's game is on Univision and not Altitude, Richard Fleming has the day off, while Marcelo Balboa is working the game in Spanish.  Despite that, they are going to make time in the hour before scheduled kickoff to stop by the C38 tailgate and get the sending off and love they richly deserve.  Please try to stop by and thank them for everything.

With all of that going on, and with Colorado being out of playoff contention, the actual game seems secondary.  The game is scheduled for kickoff at 1:30, but since its a Univision game there will be about 20 minutes of pregame and actual kickoff will be around 1:50.  It will also likely be wet.  Seems appropriate that a home season that started with disappointment in the snow will end with resignation in the rain.

Eliminated

With the Galaxy's win over the Earthquakes tonight the Rapids are officially eliminated from playoff contention.

All Over But The Shouting

Told you I'd be posting less, but I didn't expect to go completely quiet like that.  Family stuff, you know.  Anyway, after a week where we beat the teams we should beat but didn't beat the team we needed to be (and in fact, got curb stomped by them) our playoff chances are really all but mathematically done.  The only way to the postseason for Colorado is to beat Dallas at home and Austin on the road (ha!), have the Galaxy and FSL draw, have FSL not win its other game have the Galaxy lose both of its other games, have Vancouver not win one of their two games, and have Seattle not win two of there three games.  Easy, right?

What this run-in has shown us is that the Rapids aren't a playoff team, but they aren't the bottom of the league either.  They're good enough to pop up and cause issues for any team, but they're not good enough to sustain it, especially on the road.  Its a long cry from last year at this time, when we were about to go on and win the West.  A lot of people, and a lot of statistical analysis, suggested we overperformed last year.  A lot of that same analysis is suggesting we're underperforming this year.  So some have suggested the reality of this team is that we're probably a playoff team that got good breaks last year and bad ones this year.

I disagree though.  I think that undersells what we built in 2021, and what we let collapse in 2022.  Sam Vines, Cole Bassett, Auston Trusty, Kellyn Acosta, and Mark-Anthony Kaye are National Team quality players that have left this team for various reasons and not been replaced.  The quality of the 2022 Rapids is not the same as the quality of the 2021 team.  Sadly, what we built last year is now gone, and we are looking at a significant rebuild.  That's the real failure of this season.

On a different, sad, note, former Rapids head coach Tim Hankinson passed away from cancer last night.  He was 67 years old.  Hankinson had a long coaching career stretching 40 years, including both the Tampa Bay Mutiny and Rapids in MLS and Fort Lewis College in Durango, among 15 teams in 4 countries on 3 continents.  He was at the helm here in Colorado from 2001-2004, taking the Rapids to the playoffs in all but his first year.  He also recruited/drafted notable Rapids like Pablo Mastroeni, John Spencer, and Joe Cannon.  Rest in peace Tim.

Another Game, Another Unhelpful Result

A pretty meh game in DC where the team once again didn't look dangerous until the end.  At least the defense showed up, with some help by Yarbrough making his first ever PK save.  Still a 0-0 draw with an xG of 1.0 doesn't not make for a playoff team.  Over this 3 game East Coast trip the team was outscored 10-1, came back with 1 point, and had a combined xG of less than 3.0 over the 3 games.  The organization can say all they want about still having a shot at the playoffs, but the reality is this isn't a team playing like it.  This is a team that's realized its done for the season and is just going through the motions.

Right now the playoff like looks to be 48 points.  If the Rapids win out they would end up with 48 points.  No, that's not going to happen.

So, DC Tomorrow

The Rapids finish their East Coast swing with a game in the cation's capital tomorrow evening.  There's no salvaging this trip, being down 10-1 so far.  With the way tonight's games have gone the playoff line is at 48 points, so anything short of a win tomorrow means that Colorado would have to win out and get a lot of help to make it in, but based on the way we played in August, 1.14 PPG while being outscored 21-13 (oddly, that 1.14 is exactly our season average too) we're not going to win 5 straight anyway.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 5:30pm and we have 5 more blackouts before the Apple deal ends it.  Though the way we're playing I'm not sure the blackouts are a bad thing.

Injury Report: 

OUT: D Seb Anderson, D Jackson Travis, M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price

Disciplinary Report:

ONE YELLOW FROM SUSPENSION; D Lalas Abubakar, M Bryan Acosta

At this point I hope Fraser puts out 11 players who actually care about not checking out for minutes at a time and that want to win the game.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Rubio.  Do you see this team winning?  Me neither, no matter how bad DC is.  They are bad enough that we should get a point, but until the Rapids actually appear to care about winning, I'm not going to predict they will.

On To 2023

I could go into detail about what went wrong this game, what our mathematical chances are in 2022, and what we need to look for on Sunday, but we've all seen it before.  This is the same Rapids that have been falling down since midseason, and there's no indication that's going to change.  I'm just going to put out these two stats.

In a make or break week for our playoff chances, we've been outscored 10-1 in two games

In a game last night that we absolutely had to win to have a playoff shot, our xG didn't go above 0.0 until the 85th minute, finishing at 0.4.

Quite simply this team doesn't have the talent or drive to compete any more this year.  Its questionable if it ever did.

I've got some travel and work commitments coming up, and this team isn't giving me any reason to go out of my way to keep to my normal game preview/review schedule.  That doesn't mean I'm going quiet for the rest of the year, just that you may see smaller posts and I may skip some.  Once we're officially eliminated and the year ends I'll be back with my normal wrap-ups and roster analysis as me move on to 2023.

Last Ditch Effort

Well, Colorado is back on the road tomorrow night trying to bounce back from that embarrassing loss on Saturday.  They're in Nashville to face Gary Smith and other members of the 2010 MLS Cup winning team.  Nashville is the last team in the playoffs (based on PPG) so this is a true 6 pointer.  Anything short of a win and whatever last remaining playoff hopes the team might hold will be essentially gone.  Even a draw means we'd likely need 15 points in our last 6 games, and I don't see this team winning 5 of siz with trips to the Galaxy and Austin, and Dallas at home. on the schedule.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 6:30 and this is the first of the last half dozen blacked out games.

Injury Report: 

OUT: D Seb Anderson, D Jackson Travis, M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price, F Yaya Toure

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED; D Gustavo Vallecilla

Along with that, the Rapids announced today that defender Michael Edwards has been loaned to the Switchbacks for the rest of the season.  Notably neither Danny Wilson or Keegan Rosenberry (who was Questionable on Saturday) are on the injury report.

Its all hands on deck time.  I think in a less critical game Fraser would give Wilson and Rosenberry some time to heal, but after Wednesday he needs a win here and his best options playing.  The only question mark is who plays in Warner's spot, could be him, Priso, Max, or a 5th defender.

Prediction: 3-1 loss, goal by Rubio.  In the end the answer to that last question won't matter.  There's nothing that's happened in the last 72 hours that says anything but a loss to me in this one.  The season is over and everyone knows it, but nobody wants to admit it yet.  The hobbled backline is going to give up goals to Nashville and we won't respond.

Rapids Tie Second Worst Loss In Team History

On September 5th, 2015 the Rapids hit what we hoped was their low point.  This was the infamous Joe Nasco game where the Rapids went down a man in the first minute in LA, and eventually set an all time worst team loss (and at the time a top 3 all-time league loss) at 6-0.  Sadly, that wasn't the low point even of that era.

Three years later, on August 25th 2018, it got worse.  This time at home the Rapids would go down a man in the 9th minute and a second man in the 45th minute, and again lose 6-0.  This time though, it was to their Rocky Mountain Cup rivals FSL.  That is still the worst loss in team history, because it was at home and who the opponent was.

On Saturday Colorado repeated their 2015 game, losing 6-0 on the road to the Union.  This one might even be a little worse than that, considering that they were down 3-0 in the first 30 minutes while playing 11v11, then got a red card and gave up the last 3 goals in the last 10 minutes of the match.  Against LA all 6 goals were given up down a man (since the red card was in the first minute).  Colorado showed up not ready to play as individuals or a team and the second best squad in the league was surgical in taking advantage of that.

There's no need to break down the details of this game.  The match exposed everything the fans have been saying about the team this season.  No depth, no pride, and not enough skill or effort.  Fraser put out a B lineup, trying to rest players for the more winnable games in this 3 game week, and our reserves are no longer good enough.  The only players in the starting XI for this one that I'm confident I'd be happy to see in the starting lineup for the opening game of 2023 were Yarbrough and Rosenberry.  Everyone else needs to be playing for their jobs the rest of the season (there are players like Rubio and Price who didn't start for various reasons that don't need to worry about their jobs either).  Even including the subs only Drew Moor should have a guaranteed spot in 2023 (if he doesn't retire).

The worst part about it, as a fan, is that we see the same disinterest from the organization as we saw after the other two 6-0 losses.  No attempt to address it, no statements by leadership or even the players* taking responsibility, and no reason for the fans to think the club sees the deeper problems this team has right now.  For a Front Office that has talked about earning the fans' trust, the last two months has done nothing but throw away whatever they had managed to earn.  Right now they look like every other leadership team this club has had over the last 15+ years.

If anyone was still thinking about the playoffs, this weekend pretty much put paid to that idea.  The Rapids looked nothing like a playoff team while at the same time the teams they are chasing made a strong move to separate themselves from the back.  The playoff line is now at 47 points, to to get to 48 and avoid any tiebreaker scenarios Colorado would need 16 points in the last 7 games, a Bodmer Line of 2.29 pts/game.  And we still have to go to Austin, who just ripped the Shield winners apart on Friday night.  Its quite possible that the Rapids could lose to Nashville on Wednesday and DC on Sunday, leaving us a max possible total of 47.

Obviously, nobody deserves a MOTM award after this one.  On to Nashville with a patchwork defense against the 2nd scorer in the league.

* - if I remember correctly a couple of players did make an extra effort to make a statement taking responsibility after the FSL loss

Doin' A Little East Coast Swing

Colorado heads East for a 3 game week, presumably staying out there all week (I really hope they're not flying back and forth after each game).  First stop, Philly and the Eastern Conference leading Union.  Philadelphia is coming off their third (3rd!) 6+ goal win of the season and their second over DC United alone.  They're also completely healthy and have no players missing, so the Rapids have a mountain to climb to get points tomorrow.  Kickoff is at 5:30pm, and there are 7 games left in the Altitude blackout.

Injury Report: 

OUT: D Seb Anderson, M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price, F Yaya Toure

QUESTIONABLE: D Keegan Rosenberry

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED; M Bryan Acosta

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar

Toure's injury was confirmed as a season=ending ACL tear this week, so I'll be leaving him off the report for the rest of the season alongside Keita and Galvan.  Keegan and Seb are new additions to the injury report, both with right leg injuries.  Needless to say, this is not good.

This is the lineup I'd expect Fraser to play if he's trying to win this game and not worrying about our trip to Nashville on Wednesday and DC next weekend.  We may see some players rotated out, especially since this seems to be the toughest of those 3 games.  Priso and Barrios would be the most likely to rotate in.

Prediction: 3-1 loss, goal by Rubio.  A full-strength Union squad, at home, trying to stay on top of the East against a weakened Rapids squad on the road with a questionable playoff chance?  Yeah, we're not getting anything out of this one.  As they say, No Price, No Points.

Season Ends On Final Kick Saturday Night

For 90+ minutes the Rapids did just enough in an ugly game to get the 3 points they needed to stay in the playoff race.  Then once again, like we've seen all season, the defense switched off for a second, the opposing team took advantage, and now realistically the season is over (we'll get back to that conclusion).  In this case it was, once again, Esteves who switched off.  He took two steps outside to cover empty space while his man moved inside to the ball.  Danny Wilson, now overloaded with two men to cover followed the ball.  Drew Moor dropped off to take Wilson's extra man, leaving a wide open hole in the middle for Ferreira's shot to fly through to tie the goal.  Abubakar was also defending space instead of stepping up.  Sound familiar?

Other than that there's not much to talk about the game.  A nice strike by Lalas early in the second half to g get the lead but otherwise it was a game the ref called very tightly leading to little flow and a lot of back and forth in midfield.  Outside of the goals the teams combined for 5 shots on target, and the goal was the Dynamo's only shot on goal of the second half.

So, lets talk about why I'm calling the season over.  Currently the Rapids sit at 32 points with 8 games to play.  They are on pace for 42 points.  The average number of points for the 7th placed team in a 34 game season is 44 points (the so-called Bodmer Line).  538's projections has Seattle as the 7th placed team with 45 points.  Since 2018 (not counting the COVID-shortened 2020 season) the 7th placed team has had 48 points.

So we know the Rapids will likely need somewhere between 12 and 18 points in the last 8 games to make the playoffs.  Their remaining schedule is three home games and five road games.  If Colorado wins all 3 of their home games they'll still need 3-9  road points in those 5 games.  Right now, after 12 road games, the Rapids have earned 6 points.  They have trips to two of the top three teams in the league (Philly & Austin), two mid-tier teams in a playoff spot, one of which already beat us at home (Nashville & the Galaxy), and the probable Wooden Spoon winner (DC).  If they pull off the win in DC, no gimme given our road  play, and maybe they get draws in Nashville and Carson, that gets them 5 points.

But that's only part of the battle.  The rest of it is winning those 3 home games.  That's a game against San Jose (currently 1 point ahead of Houston and 5 points behind Colorado, Vancouver (2 points ahead of Colorado, and just beat us somewhat convincingly on Wednesday), and Dallas (10 points ahead of the Rapids and trying to clinch a home playoff game).  Can we really expect a team that couldn't close out Houston to win all 3 of those games?

And one last piece of the puzzle.  The Rapids have this week off, then will go to Philly, Nashville, and DC in a week.  Then they'll have another 7 days off and they'll host SJ, Vancouver, and go to Carson in a week.  6 games in 20 days, 4 on the road.

So IF Colorado can get a draw and a win on the road in 3 days, coming off a probable loss in Philly 4 days earlier, and IF they can win back-to-back home games in 4 days and follow it up with a draw 72 hours later in Carson, then they can host Dallas knowing a win over a team fighting for a top playoff spot would likely put them in the playoffs.  If not, then they can go on the road to one of the top teams in the league on Decision Day and hope Austin has everything wrapped up and nothing to play for.

To me, that's a pretty unrealistic set of circumstances.  For all intents and purposes, our season ended on that Houston goal.  We should play the kids the rest of the way and plan for 2023.

Man of the Match:  Nobody.  In a must win game everyone was so flat its not worth giving the award out.

Must win Game In Commerce City Tomorrow Night

Currently the Rapids sit on 31 points with 4 home and 5 road games remaining.  Realistically we probably need at least 16 points to feel comfortable with our playoff chances.  That means even if we win all our remaining home games we still need 4 points from trips to 1st placed Philly, 8th placed Nashville who beat us at home already, last placed in the league DC, 6th placed Galaxy, and 2nd place Austin.  I highly doubt we get points in Philly or Austin.  So as you can see, dropping any points at home to Houston tomorrow night would be all but fatal for our playoff hopes.  Do you see 6-7 points out of those remaining road games?  I don't.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7pm, and the Altitude blackout count is at 8.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price, F Yaya Toure

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar

There's been no official update to the injury report since Wednesday's game, so I have to assume Price is out again for this one.

I think Fraser probably wants to rest Wilson for this one, but the disaster on Wednesday with Vallecilla doesn't leave us many options other than Wilson and Abubakar.  While Danny didn't play well, he was the better of the two starting CBs.  If Priso doesn't start after what he brought to the play on Wednesday I don't know when he will (unless Price is back and starting).  Everyone else needs to get through one more game before getting some rest.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Barrios.  By any measure Houston is a worse team than us, and we're at home.  The one thing against us is that Houston didn't play midweek and we did.  Despite that I think Colorado bounces back from Wednesday and picks up the vital 3 points, just to keep us hanging on this season a little while longer.

Rapids Throw Away Chance To Move Into Playoff Position

There was a chance for Colorado to jump to 6th and solidly in a playoff spot with a win last night.  Instead they showed up flat with a questionable lineup and instead their opponents, the Whitecaps, are now in a playoff spot after a 2-1 win.  The loss turns this Saturday's game against Houston into a huge must win for the home side and even at that point they're going to need to pick up some surprise results on the ensuing East Coast road trip.  This was a significant setback for a team that seemed to be heading the right way over the last few matches.

Random Musings:

• I raised my eyebrows when I saw both Max and Vallecilla in the lineup when Abubakar and Priso were available.  Its possible that Fraser was concerned about Abubakar being one yellow from suspension with the big match this weekend, but Max was a very questionable start, as we'll see.
• I was happy we got through the first 10 minutes without giving up a goal finally, only to give one up 3 minutes later.  The sequence started with Vallecilla making a poor choice to play the ball back to Yarbrough when he had no outlets.  Instead of launching a long ball Will had Wilson come closer and played him the ball.  Danny, with his back to the field and a Whitecap on him tried to get the ball out side to the only option he could see, Beitashour on the touch line.  Unfortunately he didn't get enough on it and Beita made no effort to come to the ball.  That made an easy interception and immediate goal opportunity for Vancouver and we were down 1-0.  Playing it out of the back is fine, but somebody on the defense needs to recognize when there's no play and just boot it long to remove danger.  Nobody did on this one.
• The rest of the half was pretty ugly for Colorado.  They only managed one shot on target in the half, and spent most of the time just trying to move the ball up the field as they had no ability to break through the home side's press.
• Once again we gave up a goal in the last 5 minutes before half.  This time Max played a lazy ball back in the general area of our central defenders, but not to either one of them.  Had Wilson read the ball as soon as it left Max's foot he probably would have gotten to it, but it took him a second to realize that while it wasn't going to him, it also wasn't going to Vallecilla.  At that point it was 50/50 at best if he would beat Gauld to the ball and he made the right choice in staying back rather than trying and failing to get to the ball first, which would have led to a 1 on 1 with Yarbrough.  Sadly though, Gauld had a head of steam, and lets be honest Wilson isn't fast, so even staying back he was unable to stop Gauld's run and goal.  Really though, he takes very little fault for the goal, the mistake was Max's.
• The second half was more of the same, until the last 15 minutes.  Suddenly the Rapids that we needed to see from the start of the game showed up.  They were aggressive, they attacked Vancouver's goal, and Zardes got a goal and hit the post on a second opportunity.  It shouldn't take going down and hitting crunch time before we start playing though.
• A lot of the positive play we saw in that last 15 minutes was due to the introduction of Priso.  Compared to the non-entity Max was Priso clearly needs to be getting all of the minutes when Price and Acosta aren't available.  He had a good argument for man of the match despite only playing 10 minutes.
• With this draw the Bodmer Line is back up to 1.44 points per game.  Realistically though we need to get to 47-48 points, so we're looking at more like 1.8 pts/game to have a good playoff chance.  Last year we played at 1.79 pts/game.
• That means we probably need at least 6 points from Saturday's home game against Houston (12th place) and our 3 game road trip through Philly (1st place), Nashville (8th place) and DC (12th place and last overall in the league).  Given that we have 1 road win this season, its hard to expect any on that road swing, even against DC, which means 3 points this weekend is an absolute must.

Man of the Match: Jonathan Lewis.  Any dangerous chances we had before Priso entered the match came through Lewis, and while he struggled on his crosses through most of the game he kept Vancouver on their toes and mad them work to keep him from causing those dangerous chances.  In the last 15-20 minutes he was finally finding those crosses and probably should have had an assist or two if we could have finished.

Water Faces Water North Of The Border

Fraser River entering the Salish Sea at Vancouver

Rapids and Whitecaps, two forms of disturbed water.  Tomorrow night we'll see which can dry up the other as two teams fighting for their playoff hopes face off in British Columbia.  The Rapids go north in a weakened state, missing multiple players and their equipment manager after a late red card on Saturday night.  Kickoff is at 8pm tomorrow, and we're down to single-digit games left on the Altitude blackout with only 9 to go.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price, F Yaya Toure

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED: D Lucas Esteves, M Bryan Acosta

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar

There's an unconfirmed report that it was the worst case for Toure after his knee buckled on Saturday night, his ACL.  We'll see if its confirmed but if so, that would obviously end his season.  Jack Price was downgraded from Questionable to Out, so that's not great to see.

Its always tough to predict the lineup of the second game in a three game week, especially when its on the road.  Given the importance of this one though I think Fraser will worry less about rest than he may have earlier in the season. I can't see the backline being much different than last week other than the necessary Beitashour/Esteves swap, and Zardes is almost certain to start up top.  Its really the midfield that could go any number of ways.  This assumes that Fraser doesn't try to reintroduce the 5-man back line of course.

Prediction: 1-1 draw goal by Rubio.  Essentially I have to choose Rubio as a goal-scorer at this point.  Barring injury or a real cold streak he's almost certainly going to put up the best offensive season in team history.  As far as the overall game, Colorado is a better team than Vancouver.  But we're missing some critical pieces and we're on the road.  Plus we haven't shown a real ability to stay focused defensively for 90 minutes.  Given all that the best I can see us doing is a draw.  A loss would put any playoff hopes on life support.

Colorado Gets A Point From An Ugly Match

While the weather was better on Saturday night than during the Minnesota game the prior week, the soccer was worse.  Lots of play in the middle third with very little happening at either end.  The teams did have 8 shots on target but very few of them were at all dangerous and both teams seemed to just be going through the motions.  That's not good enough for a Rapids team in a playoff dogfight.  A point really puts the burgundy boys into some required results in this 3-game week.

Random Musings:

• Another game, another early goal.  At some point either Joseph Samelson or I are going to go through and count the number of goals given up in the first and last 5-10 minutes of the first half this year and the number won't be pretty.  Its a sign of a lack of concentration.
• This goal is a really bad look for the Rapids, no way to sugar-coat it.  The sequence starts with the Crew making a stab into the box that Lalas and Wilson successfully defend and Columbus cycles the ball back out to the Rapids right side.  Out there are two Crew players with only Diego Rubio to pressure them.  Abubakar is manned up on a Crew attacker in the box, Acosta is on Zelaravan, and Esteves is keeping an eye on Cucho.  Meanwhile there are another four Rapids, plus Yarbrough, just hanging out in the box, with Zardes just outside of it.  For some reason Rosenberry is over on the left near Esteves.  Diaz releases the ball to Santos, and Santos goes right past Rubio who seems to think he has support behind him.  Lalas's man tried to pull him out of position but he doesn't bite, so Santos whips in a cross.  At this moment there are 9(!!!) Rapids physically in the box, including Will, against 2 Crew attackers.  Despite that the cross gets through the box clean, and Esteves loses Cucho who puts away the tap-in.
• Cucho is a great player, and the Crew got a little lucky in that his awkward touch actually directed the ball down into the turf and then up into the goal, where an "expected" shot directly into the goal might have been saved by Yarbrough, but there's no excuse for 9 players to allow an open shot from one of two attackers.  Bad by Esteves to lose Cucho, but overall bad team play to  leave your striker as the only player available to pressure 2 attackers while 5-6 guys defend space.
• Moving on to the waved-off goal, it was the right call.  The replay in stadium focused on the shot Zardes scored, but the offside was on the entry ball.  Zardes was just offside when that ball was played to him.
• The PK was an easy call for the ref.  And great job by Rubio putting it away even as the Crew keeper guessed correctly.
• After that the game really got stuck in the mud.  It took almost 30 minutes of the second half for either team to get a shot on goal, and both teams looked gassed at that point.
• Fraser played it safe, making like for like subs primarily and not really pushing for the win, which was disappointing to see.
• You never want to see a player go down, but it hurts more when its a young kid who's just getting his feet under him.  No work yet on Yaya Toure's injury, but it didn't look good.  We're all hoping its not as serious as feared.
• Rapids defended a man down after that due to being out of subs, but the Crew never threatened and seemed to be satisfied with the draw, oddly.
• The teams ended up tied on xG at 1.4.  But 0.8 of the Rapids xG came off the PK.  Outside of that the Crew had double the Rapids xG.
• Colorado will be without Acosta and Esteves in Vancouver on Wednesday due to yellow card accumulation, presumably Toure due to his injury, and their equipment manager who got sent off late.
• The Rapids will need a result north of the border too.  Given the upcoming schedule after this week its hard to see how we could make a real playoff push without getting at least 4 points from Vancouver on Wednesday and Houston on Saturday.

Man of the Match: Lalas Abubakar.  Broke up a lot of attacks and didn't give the ball away.  He also avoided the yellow card that would have suspended him alongside Acosta and Esteves on Wednesday.

COL VS. COL

The former and once again Crew are in town tomorrow night after the All-Star break.  The Rapids, not having any All-Stars, are coming off a week of rest while Darlington Nagbe represented the Crew in the game (and took a hard knock).  Columbus  is on a hot streak, with only one loss  in their last eleven games (five wins and 5 draws).  Kickoff tomorrow is at the normal 7pm time, and we're into the final 10 games of the Altitude blackout.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz

QUESTIONABLE: M Jack Price

Disciplinary Report:

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lalas Abubakar, D Lucas Esteves, M Bryan Acosta

Yes, Jack Price started last week and yes, he's still on the injury list.  This time though its an upper body injury instead of the leg injury he was recovering from.

Hard to tell exactly how the midfield is going to lay out.  Price starts if he can, but I'm assuming he won't be able to.  You could see a more attacking midfield with Gutierrez instead of Priso, or possibly in place of Acosta if they want to keep the more defensive midfielder in.  Columbus is weak on the flanks so I expect Esteves, Lewis, and Barrios to start over the more defensive options there.

Prediction: 2-2 draw, goals by Zardes and Rubio.  Zardes had a less than pleasant separation from the Crew when he was traded and I think he's going to want to show them what they're missing.  That and the weakness on the flanks should be enough to keep us in the game, but I'm not sure we get over the hump for 3 points.

Cole Bassett To Fortuna Sittard

Cole Bassett is currently, well as of earlier this week, on an 18-month loan to Feyenoord in the Netherlands.  Despite a strong pre-season where he started a number of the final games and scored twice, the talk coming out of Rotterdam is that Feyenoord isn't planning to play him much this season  Recently there's been a lot of scuttlebutt about him being loaned out to Fortuna Sittard, also of the Eredivise.  They barely avoid relegation last year, so they're om the other end of the table.

Well today it looks like that talk has become all but official, as numerous social media accounts reporting on Fortuna Sittard have reported the deal as done, and Sittard's own Twitter account teased an announcement with a blurred picture that does seem to be Cole.

The interesting thing here is that Feyenoord is not allowed to loan a player on loan.  So one of two things happened.  Either Feyenoord triggered the purchase option in Bassett's loan deal, and then loaned him to Fortuna, or the Rapids and Feyenoord cancelled the loan for Basset and Fortuna Sittard and Colorado created a new loan deal.  Early reports were all sides were working towards the latter option, but that the new loan would include Feyenoord having the right of first refusal on buying Cole before Fortuna Sittard could.

Regardless of how its being done, it appears that Bassett will be playing for Fortuna Sittard this season.  Hopefully he'll get more playing time than it appeared he would be getting at Feyenoord.  Otherwise there's a team in Colorado that could use his help.

Rapids Win Sloppy Delayed Match

Last week the Rapids shipped 7 goals, but the good news is that they scored 9.  For the first time in their history they put up back-to-back 4+ goals games to pick up 6 points.  A 4-3 match isn't ideal, but as long as you score more than the other team you take the 3 points.  Now the team gets a week off at home since none of them were selected for the All-Star Game on Wednesday before facing Columbus next Saturday.

Random Musings:

• In the last 13 minutes (plus stoppage) on Tuesday and the first 15 minutes on Saturday the Rapids scored goals.  As best I can tell, 28 minutes is the fastest Colorado has ever scored 6 goals in.
• Game didn't start on a good note with the defense giving up a goal inside 5 minutes.  Vallecilla played a ball he could have easily cleared out for an unnecessary corner, then lost his man on the ensuing dead-ball.  Otherwise the defense was pretty tight on the free kick but it only takes one mistake.
• Notably Vallecilla was starting in Abubakar's place.  It certainly appears that Lalas was benched after his atrocious play on Tuesday.  Its good to show the team that poor play has consequences, but long-term Abubakar and Wilson have to be the starters.  Vallecilla just isn't ready yet.
• Colorado bounced right back with three quick goals.  Two of them were set up by throwi-ins by Rosenberry.  Dropping a ball right into the middle of the box for an unmarked Rubio, and creating a fast break from midfield for Barrios.  That's a nice little weapon we haven't seen enough.
• With his 11th goal Rubio is now barely ahead of the pace of Conor Casey's team record 16 goals in 2009.  He's also on pace to shatter the team record of goals + assists, which is 21 held by both John Spencer and Mark Chung.  Rubio is on pace for 25.  That's without two unofficial assists this weekend where his long shots were spilled by the keeper right into the path of Zardes to finish them.
• Colorado let their opposition back into the game right before half, again.  To be fair, this was a nicely taken goal with Esteves being unfortunately nutmegged and then Wilson's man playing a back-heel pass to himself and then taking a sliding shot just over Danny's leg and just past Yarbrough's outstretched hand.  A tip of the cap for a nice play, but Esteves and Wilson could have done a bit better as well.
• Then the lightning hit and we sat around for 90 minutes before the second half kicked off.
• Kudos to the Rapids for continuing to press and getting Zardes' hat-trick.  If it weren't for some big saves from Minnesota's keeper it could have been a couple more.
• They couldn't make it easy though, giving up another goal on a set piece.  Wilson lost his man on the corner, with a bit of nice work from Kallman.  In order to lose Wilson he ran Danny into the scrum in the middle of the box and used it as a pick to get free, and the ball was placed it the right spot for him to finish after that.  Smart play by the attacker, but Wilson needs to not get sucked in like that.
• Yarbrough came up huge after that, blocking a tying goal from a one on one with a kick save.
• Barrios was on fire Saturday night.  When he's on, he's the best winger we have.  But, much like the rest of the team, his biggest negative this year is his inconsistency.
• Jack Price was back, unexpectedly!  It made total sense to pull him after the weather delay, there's no need to risk injury after sitting that long.
• That gave us our first look at Felipe Gutierrez.  He didn't do anything to really stand out, good or bad, but good to see him getting minutes already.
• Zardes, Rubio, and Fraser all made the MLS team of the week this week.
• The Bodmer Line is now at 1.27 pts/game, which is below the season average of 1.29.  Somehow we've climbed back into the race.  We probably needs 1.64 pts/game to feel really confident though.
• One last thing, happy birthday to Rapids legend Marcelo Balboa!

Man of the Match: Gyasi Zardes.  I mean, the league named him the Player of the Week.  He scored a hat-trick.  Its the easiest choice possible.