No Price, No Points?

Lets hope not, because Jack Price is officially out tomorrow.  He headlines a list of 5 Rapids officially out and a 6th (Esteves) not listed but reportedly not ready to start.  The only good news is that Portland is as much a walking wounded camp as we are.  The two M*A*S*H units kickoff at 7pm tomorrow in Commerce City, with both coming off scoreless draws (Portland has had back to back scoreless draws in fact).  So all signs point to a 1-0 game, but this is MLS so we're just as likely to see something like 4-3.

Injury Report:

OUT: D Danny Wilson, M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price

As mentioned Lucas Esteves isn't officially listed on the injury report but people who saw training this week said he had a bit of a setback from his recovery so I don't expect him to start tomorrow.

I really don't know what Fraser is going to roll out there.  Between the injuries and the addition of Zardes its a whole new world right now.  I'm sure Zardes will start, I'm pretty sure we'll stick with our back 5, but other than that these are real guesses.  I could see Rubio on the bench and sticking with our 5-4-1/5-2-3, I could see Mezquida over Max above, or Warner over Acosta, or Warner and Acosta but no Max.  It will be interesting to see the lineup around 6pm tomorrow.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Zardes.  I think we start both Rubio and Zardes and Portland doesn't know what to expect, which works in our favor.  They get one but we get two and the three points, and reset our season a bit.  I also acknowledge that this is a totally biased pick, but eventually we have to get straightened out, right?

Rapids Flatter Than A Pancake

For the first time in their history, according to Richard Fleming, the Rapids were held without a shot on goal in a home game.  That's a fair summary of the game overall.  The Rapids struggled to control the match in the first half.  Then Jack Price went down with a hamstring injury just before halftime and Colorado had no control after that.  A scoreless draw was the result, a disappointing score line against a team in its 10th game ever.

Random Musings:

• The Rapids continued their normal play against expansion teams.  7 of the last 10 expansion teams have taken points off Colorado in their expansion year now, and 2 of the remaining 3 we didn't play.  Cincinnati is the only one of the last 10 expansion teams we got the full 3 points from.
• Wilson and Moor were injured and didn't make the 18, Esteves had a knock so started the game on the bench.  Despite that the defense still looked solid.
• Vallecilla looked good in his first start.  He had one distribution mistake that Abubakar cleaned up but otherwise he was solid in defense.  His passing could use a bit of work.
• Losing Captain Jack changed the game.  Before that Colorado was at least on the front foot, even if they couldn't get synced up.  After Price was subbed it was pretty much all Charlotte.
• No news yet on how bad his injury is, but it wasn't a good sign that he couldn't make it to half just a few minutes away and save one of our sub windows.
• The choice to put Warner in was a bit of a surprise.  It made us more defensive at a time we needed to work on our attack.  I hope that's not the long term plan to replace Price.
• Even with Price in, the team couldn't string passes together to get near goal.  Our offense is still in neutral.
• It was good to see Zardes get time so quickly after arrival.  Sadly we couldn't give him any service to take advantage of.
• In stadium news, looks like they've added some food options but still not up to the level of other stadiums.  Still green chile nachos, salads, and shrimp po'boys are a start.  I'm still going to stick with the tailgate though.
• Next up is a Portland team that is also struggling.  Its not a "must win" but some real questions will be asked if we can't get 3 points in this one.

Man of the Match: William Yarbrough.  Earned us a point with some big saves, and was named to the MLS Team of the Week for it.

Who Are These Guys?

The new kids on the block, Charlotte FC, are in town tomorrow for our first look at the expansion side.  They're coming off a 120 minute Open Cup match in mid-week that they won, and a losing streak in league play.  The normal reaction to an expansion team, especially at home, is that this should be an easy 3 points bot the Rapids track record against expansion teams is not great.  In the last 10 years they've only taken maximum points off the expansion team in their inaugural year twice, Cincinnati in 2019 and Montreal in 2012.  That comes with a caveat in that due to the COIVD shutdown the Rapids didn't play the 2020 expansion teams, Nashville and Miami.  In fact they still haven't ever played them.  They'll play Nashville later this year but it will be at least 2023 before we face Miami (unless an extremely unlikely MLS Cup matchup occurs).  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7, tailgate at 4, TV is Altitude.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Ollie Larraz (broken leg)

The media notes haven't been sent out yet, probably due to the Zardes trade, but this is the reported injury list.  No Danny Wilson listed, but we'll see if that changes on the official report.  Reports are that the Rapids don't need to make a roster move to add Zardes and he will be available tomorrow, but I'm sure he won't be starting.

I expect minimal changes this week, knowing that with Zardes coming we might have significant changes in the future.  We're still trying to figure out the best winger combos, but I don't think Lewis or Max are them right now.  If Wilson isn't available I think we may see Moor again.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Kaye.  Our defense is still questionable but our offense is better then theirs (and their defense is just as bad as ours).  Home cooking and a expansion team trying to find tis feet is the answer to our losing streak.

Rapids Get Their DP #9

It took an additional 2 months but the Rapids have signed the DP #9 we've been looking for.  They did it by trading with Columbus for U.S. National Team striker Gyasi Zardes.  This has been a long-suggested rumor since Zardes is apparently on the outs with Crew head coach Caleb Porter, and has been coming off the bench as a late game sub, while the need for a #9 in Colorado was obvious to many (though Rubio's play early this season has taken the edge off of that a bit).

The deal is Zardes and his full remaining salary to Colorado for $300K of GAM, plus up to $1.1M more through performance incentives.  The Denver Post has reported that for 2022 those incentives are $100K for making the World Cup roster, $150K for scoring 12 non-PK goals but only if the Rapids make the playoffs, and $100K for winning the league Golden Boot.  Zardes is out of contract at the end of the season, so the other $750K in incentives are tied to his re-signing and his performance in 2023.  To get the full amount Zardes would have to re-sign for 3 more years and hit performance metrics next season, if he doesn't re-sign Columbus will get nothing more than what he hits in 2022.

Zardes will retain his DP status in the move to Colorado, so this means KSE must have decided to pay out some money finally.  This will cost them around $1M in salary (trying to track down an exact salary number, its between $1.4 and $1.7M this year).  As a free agent at the end of the year this is a low risk high potential move.  If he crashes and burns KSE will be out that $1M in DP money and we'll be out $300K in GAM, but we can cut him free at the end of the season.  If he succeeds then we pay more in GAM but we get more, and we can talk about re-signing him.  At 30 years old he's on the tail end of the prime of his career, but he's by no means over the hill.

Long-term this isn't the #9 move I was hoping for, but as a stopgap for 2022 and maybe into 2023-24 its fine.  With our service he should be able to get a number of goals and gives us a second type of attack for teams to defend.  Zardes is much more of a poacher than Rubio. more in the Conor Casey mold.  It also allows us to shift to a 5-3-2 formation if our wingers continue to struggle.

One interesting note is that Zardes played in the Open Cup for the Crew earlier this week, which means he's cup-tied and can't play for us in our Open Cup match on May 11th.  I didn't get a chance to post about the draw yesterday, but we will be going to Minnesota United for our first game.  We were in a group with Minnesota, Union Omaha, and Northern Colorado Hailstorm, who knocked off FSL in Sandy on Wednesday night.  I was really hoping to get an all Colorado matchup but luck was not with us.

The other part of this move for Zardes is freeing up a spot on the roster.  Joseph Samelson has looked at the roster and from what he can tell, we don't have an open roster spot for Zardes.  Now MLS roster machinations can be complex, and there may be some way for the Rapids to stash an additional player at Rapids 2, or on loan to the USL, or on the injury list or something, so take that with a grain of salt.  The rumors are the Rapids want to have him available for Charlotte tomorrow night, but that would seem to require another roster move to allow it.

Regardless of if its necessary or not, I can't see the Rapids keeping all of Zardes, Rubio, Barrios, Max, Acosta, Lewis, and Shinyashiki.  That's too many players for not enough minutes in a roster capped league.  I'm guessing that before the window closes on May 4th that at least one of Lewis or Shinyashiki will be traded.  There were even reports today that there's been interested in Shinyashiki from multiple teams, but the Rapids have been a firm no on trading him.  I'm thinking today's move may change that.

Rapids Ran A Rerun On Saturday Night

Another road game, another domination of chances, another failure to score, another 3-1 loss.  If you watched the Dallas game you saw a first half goal, a first half equalizer ins stoppage time, and a second half breakdown by the Rapids defense.  You saw the same thing against Minnesota.  The only difference was Minnesota scoring first and Colorado equalizing.  There's not much more to say about this one.

Random Thoughts:

• Yarbrough is not the keeper he was last year.  He's still the starter, but he's letting in goals he would have stopped last year, and some a top qualify MLS keeper should be stopping.
• Trusty has also regressed.  I don't know if he's lost focus with the Arsenal deal or what, but the combination of the two is really hurting our defense.
• Because despite the frustration of not converting our chances, our problem is defensive.  Yes, if we had scored a second early in the second half maybe the game goes differently, but Minnesota hadn't scored more than 1 all season.  We shouldn't have given up 3 regardless of our offensive woes.
• Our wingers are struggling.  Everyone wants a DP striker, but I'm thinking a DP winger would be more helpful.
• Speaking of, the fact that Max couldn't make it into this game isn't reassuring.  I know his play last week as a starter wasn't great, but  this was a game where he could have had a shot to redeem himself.
• Right now this season is feeling like one where we largely stood pat in the offseason and the rest of the league got better around us.  A two game home stand should help with that, but we need to look a lot better.

Man of the Match: Diego Rubio.  4 goals and an assist in the first 7 games.  Our 9 spot isn't the issue right now, its the attack around him that needs help.

Rapids Going A Bit Looney

Colorado is on the road again tomorrow, still looking for their first road win of the season.  This time they head to the cold frontier of the Twin Cities to play the Loons of Minnesota United.  The Rapids have done well recently against Minnesota, but given our track record so far this year we can't take anything for granted.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 6pm, with TV being where you can find it.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Ollie Larraz (broken leg)

Minnesota is missing a couple of players, so you would think Colorado has the edge in availability (even with our season-ending injuries).

This is the same lineup we used in Dallas, and despite the result we did dominate the game.  So I would expect Fraser to stick with it.  Maybe Max goes back to the bench after his less than stellar start but otherwise I think this is likely.

Prediction: 1-1 draw.  Goal by Rubio.  Rubio stays hot, but the Rapids still fail to get all 3 points.  Minnesota has struggled in attack, so if we could somehow score two we'd be in good shape for a win, but I need to see more before I predict that happening.

Rapids Outplay The Burn Everywhere But The Scoreboard

Well, that was bad.  After a first half where they dominated the game and got a goal the Rapids were ready to go into the break up 1 and on the front foot when Servania launched a bomb from 35+ yards that knuckled badly and fooled Yarbrough.  Suddenly the match was tied at half and Colorado didn't recover.  Despite still looking good Dallas got a second shortly after half, then capped it off with a breakaway third while Colorado was pushing for the equalizer.  The 3-1 score line heavily favors Dallas, the Rapids were the better team in the game, but what matters is the scoreboard.

Random Thoughts:

• Pretty pass from Barrios and a great touch and finish from Rubio on the Rapids goal.  When we do manage to take advantage of opportunities we create it does look good.
• Of course, we're failing to take advantage of those opportunities.  The xG in this one was 2.1 versus Dallas' 1.4.  They were more clinical in front of goal than we were.
• I see Yarbrough getting a lot of blame on the first goal, and yeah, a GK getting beat from 40 is always a bit questionable.  Though that was an easy goal of the year candidate.  Just getting it on target from there is difficult, throwing in a swerve like that ball had along with it is rarely seen at this level.
• The second goal Dallas just beat us.  Rubio was under pressure and tried to get an outlet pass across to Rosenberry.  He couldn't get enough on it though and it only made it about halfway.  Rosenberry pinched in to try to get to it while Max took a stab at it to deny possession.  An unlucky bounce put the ball back out into the space where Rosenberry came from allowing Dallas a run at goal.  Lalas rotated over to cover for Rosenberry, Wilson rotated over to cover for Wilson, but they were both a touch too slow to stop the play and Ferreira scored.
• The third goal was just taking advantage of the Rapids pushing for an equalizer.
• I think we found out why Max wasn't starting.  His miss early in the match was pretty bad, and the rest of his game was forgettable.  Not that Lewis replacing him changed much.
• This team needs another attacking threat, one that can create and convert opportunities.  We're actually only about a goal and a half behind where we should be on xG but that's not good enough.
• The last 3 matches, 2 points, all games we should have gotten wins out of.
• Next up, Minnesota.

Man of the Match: Jack Price.  Great set piece delivery, not that we could capitalize, and controlled the midfield.  A quiet but solid game from the captain.

F*C* Dallas, 2022 Edition

We're messing with Texas tomorrow as the Rapids head to Frisco to face their old friends FC Dallas.  While its been 11 years since our last playoff meeting (see above) we're still undefeated against them in playoff series.  We're also undefeated against Dallas since Michael Barrios switched sides and came north to Commerce City.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 6:30, and you know the TV deal.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Ollie Larraz (broken leg)

Dallas has nobody listed on their injury report, so both teams are rested and at near full strength.

I don't see Fraser making many changes this week.  Lewis had a poor game against FSL so I'm thinking/hoping Max gets a chance to show his stuff.  Otherwise I expect to stick with what's working, but if Robin is trying to balance minutes we could see somebody rested for Vallecilla or Shinyashiki

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Barrios.  Dallas is improved and earl on has a slightly better defense than u.  Though that is somewhat tilted by the egg we laid in LA opening day.  I think these teams are too even to separate and they split the points.

Rapids Choke, Again, In The Rocky Mountain Cup

Once again Colorado found a way to get a ref to make a call for FSL and against the Rapids.  In this case it was a light tap by Rosenberry followed by a dive the ref bought leading to a PK just before half.  Colorado battled back right after half to level the score, but couldn't break through for a winner.  That leaves us having to go to Sandy and win on July 9th to bring the Cup home.

Random Thoughts:

• I'm tired of Ted Unkel being the center official for RMC games and then screwing the Rapids.  In the last 4 years he's been the CR for 3 RMC matches, in which he's given 3 red cards to Colorado and now gifted a PK to FSL.
• Outside of the PK the visitors only had one good look at goal, in the 7th minute, and Yarbrough easily saved it.  There's total xG outside the PK was 0.35.
• I asked a neutral friend who's connected to the ref community about the PK call right after it happened.  He said there was one view that made the call plausible, which explains why it wasn't sent down for review, but the other angles all showed it was super soft.  But it wasn't "clearly and obviously" incorrect, so the call stood.
• Regardless of the poor call, Colorado should have won that game.  We were at home and had way more options, but as we've seen many times we can't break down a team that's sitting back and allowing us to have possession.
• Lewis was particularly poor with his positioning on Saturday.  Way too many attacks found nobody in front of net because Lewis took too long to head to the obvious position.
• Interesting strategy for Fraser to make only one sub against a weakened side.  I would have liked to see Max get a shot, especially given that Kaye went 60 for Canada on Wednesday and then went 90.
• Overall our xG this season is 7.5, and our goals scored is 7.  That suggests we aren't creating good chances that our lack of a striker is causing us to fail to convert.  It seems more likely that we're not creating enough good chances.  We need to sign an attacker that can create and score.
• We've only won the one time in Rio Tinto, but it was a big one,, the 5-0 win in 2020.  Any win is enough this year, but a draw or loss leaves the Cup in SLC.
• Next up is a trip to Dallas.

Man of the Match: Lalas Abubakar.  Not only for the goal but he shut down everything in defense.  He was also named to MLS's team of the week.

Battle Over The Divide

Its that time again, when that team from the other side of the Continental Divide comes to town to get the crap kicked out of them.  Tomorrow FaKe SaLt LaKe is in town for the first leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup.  We all know what this means, now we just need the team to go out and do what we know they can.  The second leg will be July 9th in Sandy, so its important we put up a multigoal win so we put the pressure on them in the return leg.  Kickoff tomorrow is at the traditional 7pm time.  Game's on Altitude, if you get it.

Injury Report:

OUT: M Ollie Larraz

QUESTIONABLE: D Lucas Esteves

That's a pretty solid injury report.  I mean, I'd love to have Esteves but overall we could be significantly worse off.  Like FSL is, they had to call up two Academy players just to get to 1 players for game day.

This is the lineup that worked in Houston so I'm not expecting any changes.  The only possibility is that Kaye played 60 minutes for Canada on Wednesday night, so he may not start.  We could see Max there instead.  I'm expecting Kaye to start and play into the early second half though.

Prediction: 2-0 win, goals by Rubio and Barrios.  FSL is hurting and we should be able to take advantage as healthy as we are.  Rubio likes scoring against FSL so I think he gets on and Barrios gives us a cushion going back to Sandy in July.