Rapids Face Defending Champs

If Colorado is going to get its first win of the season its going to have to do it by taking down the current MLS Cup holders.  LAFC, including former Rapid Kellyn Acosta, is in town for tomorrow night's game.  LA's second team is still undefeated on the season with a +6 goal differential.  A tough hill to climb, but the Rapids have won 3 of their last 4 against the black and gold.  Kickoff is at 7:30, like always, and the commentators for the match on MLS Season Pass are Mark Rogindino and Heath Pearce in English and Adrian Garcia Marquez and Francisco Pinto in Spanish.

Availability Report:

OUT: D Moise Bombito (knee), D Aboubacar Keita (hamstring), F Yaya Toure (knee)

QUESTIONABLE: M Cole Bassett (hamstring), M Braian Galvan (groin)

Well adding Bassett isn't great but the rest looks better.

I really don't know who's going to play left back.  My midfield is a guess, I considered the possibility that Rubio would start beneath Yapi but I think its more likely Yapi subs in for Rubio since they both played and travelled this week.  Instead with Bassett out I think we get Priso behind Max and Ronan, and Cabral gets the reward for scoring last week.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Rubio.  This feels optimistic, but we have played LAFC well lately and we have Rubio starting (hopefully) for the first time this season.  Still not going to get a win, but we won't regress from last week.

Rapids Outplay Austin, Lucky To Get A Point

Wait, how is that possible you ask.  The Rapids outplayed their opponent but they were lucky to get a point?  Well let me introduce you to the Rapids finishing efforts combined with a Team of the Week performance from Austin's keeper.  It looked like for most of the night this was going to be another scoreless effort from Colorado, but a late combo from Barrios to Cabral finally beat Stuver.  With the point the Rapids can feel like they got what they deserved from the match, but it was a close thing.

• Austin's goal in the 5th minute was initially ruled offside, but VAR took a look and correctly determined it was a good goal.  It happened because Nicholson lost his man for a hood 10 seconds before the ball was played in behind him. 
• I'm not sure why Fraser thought pulling Markanich off after his success against Minnesota was a good idea, but Nicholson is not the answer.  Unfortunately he doesn't seem to be the answer anywhere.
• Overall the Rapids were more aggressive and more dangerous in this match than we have seen the rest of the season.  That's reflected in the xG, which was 2.2 to 1 in Colorado's favor.  They also had 8 shots on goal, compared to 9 in the first 4 games combined.
• All that said, this doesn't make the Rpaids a good team.  They still have nobody who can finish, players that disappear for long stretches of the game, and millions of dollars (Max, Cabral) invested in players who can't even earn a regular starting spot.
• Max was the only player with multiple shots on goal, which combined for a total of 0.06 xG.  Yeah.  To be fair though he had the best xA (expected assist) total on the team.
• The best shot of the night was Lewis' in the first half off a corner.  He unfortunately hit it right at Stuver but even then he almost failed to make the save.  The difference between 2021 and 2023 is that those shots went in in 2021 and get saved this season.
• While I'm still not sure what Fraser is doing with the starting XI, you can't criticize his subs this game.  Barrios and Cabral combined for the goal, both off the bench.
• Worst season starts through 5 games in team history:
• 2003 - 1 point, 3 goals scored
• 2013 - 2 points, 5 goals
• 2019 - 2 points, 6 goals
• 2023 - 2 points, 2 goals
• (Side note, 2033 is probably going to suck)

Man of the Match: Kevin Cabral.  I'm really excited that he got on the scoresheet finally.  Less excited that not only is he not starting but that he's not the first option off the bench, but for this week let's go with the positive and hope that kick starts his year.

The 2024 Preseason Starts Now?

Colorado heads down to try to mess with Texas tomorrow night, specifically the barcode-wearing Austin FC.  There's not a lot of joy among the burgundy faithful right now, with 1 goal and 1 point in the first 4 games and Jack Price gone for the season many fans are thinking this season is already over.  Honestly, I can't blame them.  Its hard to see how this team turns things around with what we've seen in the first 360 minutes of the season.  With the injuries and absences we have tomorrow, any turn-around is unlikely to start this weekend.  Kickoff is at 6:30 tomorrow and the announcers on Apple TV are Adrian Healey and Cobi Jones in English, Raul Guzman and Sonny Guadarrama in Spanish.

Availability Report:

OUT: D Moise Bombito (knee), M Jack Price (Achilles)*, F Yaya Toure (knee), F Diego Rubio (Chile), F Darren Yapi (U.S. U-20)

QUESTIONABLE: D Steven Beitashour (hamstring), D Alex Gersbach (hamstring), M Braian Galvan (groin)

* - Since Price has been announced as out for the season, this is the only time I'll include him in the Availability Report, since its not going to change week-to-week

That's an ugly list.  8 players unlikely to start at best.  Not to mention all our true forwards.  Hard to see how we get out of our scoring funk.

Really, I'm not sure what Fraser is going to do at this point.  I think he'll likely ask Ronan to take the role Price was expected to play this season, which would lead to a more attacking player like Max or maybe Acosta filling the 3rd role in central midfield.  Cabral seems like the only option at striker but who knows.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  Hard to predict any scoring right now, and Austin seems to have a decent offense so I can't predict a shutout.  I wouldn't be shocked by a 0-0 or even a 1-1, but I can't see anything more than that happening.

Beware The Ides Of March, Even 3 Days Later

It was a bad night in Commerce City Saturday.  Not only was the offense still a work in progress but after 7 minutes off the bench Jack Price went down with a non-contact injury.  The Rapids today confirmed what we all feared, he tore his Achilles and is done for the season.  That makes Saturday night a loss no matter what happened, but the Rapids also lost the game, 2-1.  Hey, at least we scored finally.

• The Rapids had 3 shots on goal in this one (and scored one!).  That's 50% of what they had in the first 3 games combined, so I guess that's improvement, but that's still not good enough.  Especially at home.
• They didn't have a shot on target after Cole's goal in the 49th minute, even after going down a goal and pushing for an equalizer.
• So this isn't all bad, the Rapids certainly had moments in this game where they looked dangerous.  They just couldn't find the final pass or shot.  They actually controlled the majority of the game, but a lot of it was passing around the edges waiting for somebody to try their luck.
• Great to see Rubio get some time, though scary that he almost injured himself hitting the post.  With both he and Yapi playing in this one I feel better about them going on National Team duty.
• Markanich looked good at LB, at least compared to Beitashour and Gersbach.  Its good to know we might have one decent option there.
• The penalty was clear, Danny Wilson left his arm hanging out and the ball hit it.  And Yarbrough still hasn't ever saved a PK that I remember.
• Minnesota's second goal was a well taken free kick that Abubakar misread.  That allowed Tapias a free header to put it in the corner (really well taken header I might add).
• That's the game, but the real story from Saturday night is Price's injury.  This team is built around him, and without him I don't know where we go.  We saw it last year when he missed half the season and we struggled.  In fact (h/t to TheWarmBurger) under Fraser the Rapids have played at 1.72ppg when Price plays...and 1.04ppg when he doesn't.  That's the difference between a top 2-3 finish in the conference and missing the playoffs completely. 
• Ronan is going to have to fill that gap on the field, and somebody is going to have to step up and fill the intangibles.  Cole Bassett seems a candidate for the latter, if he decides he's ready to be a team leader.
• We're all still dealing with this news, but its hard to find anyone in the fanbase who is feeling positive about this season.  4 games in, 1 goal, 1 point, averaging barely over a shot on goal per half, and now Price is out.  Its hard to see where this team turns it around and makes this season any more than prep for 2024.

Man of the Match: Cole Bassett.  He got the goal, easy choice in this one.

The Anti-Beautiful Game On Tap For Tomorrow

In one corner, the visiting Minnesota United.  Missing 5 players due to injury and suspension.  Scorers of 2 goals in 2 games with a total of 6 shots on target.

In the other corner, the home side Colorado Rapids.  Missing 2 players to injury with another 6 that are questionable.  Scorers of 0 goals in 3 games also with a total of 6 goals on target.

And just to raise the difficulty on this battle, the weather will be barely above freezing at kickoff.

LETS GET READY TO RUUUMMMMBLE!

Yeah, this is going to be an ugly game.  Kickoff is at 7:30 and its free on Apple TV this week with Max Bretos and Brian Dunseth on the English call and Oscar Salazar and Maximiliano Cordaro on the call in Spanish.

Availability Report:

OUT: D Moise Bombito (knee), F Yaya Toure (knee)

QUESTIONABLE: D Alex Gersbach (hamstring), D Steven Beitashour (hamstring), M Braian Galvan (groin), M Jack Price (back), F Darren Yapi (knee), F Diego Rubio (knee)

Yeah, that looks like a lot of fun.  No idea who will play left back or striker if the questionable players can't go.  My starting XI assumes that none of them can start, I think its obvious where players would be plugged in if they can.

Man, that's just ugly.  Another twist is that Yapi was called up by the U.S. U-20s and Rubio by Chile, and they've both been cleared to travel after this game.  So next week in Austin they won't be available.  We might be getting a large does of Cabral in the striker spot over the next 2-3 weeks.  I'm hopeful that their release is a sign that one of them is able to start, or at the very least they can come off the bench.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  At this point I wouldn't predict a goal unless I was sure Rubio and probably Price were starting.  This is going to be a sloppy, ugly, slugfest where Minnesota will get a good bounce and steal 3 points and nobody on either side is going to want to remember this game in two days.

This Team Is Lost

3 games in, 6 shots on goal, 0 in the last game.  Not only is this team not good on offense, it appears to be getting worse.  On Saturday night there appeared to be no plan, no strategy, just an effort to get the ball towards the San Jose goal and hope that somebody makes something happen.  Well, not surprisingly, nobody did.

We'll quickly touch on the defense this game, which was actually pretty good.  They only allowed 4 shots on goal and those were largely hit right at Yarbrough or were long-distance low percentage shots.  Unfortunately one of those long distance shots went in, and even then it needed a deflection off of Acosta and Yarbrough still got a hand to it but couldn't keep it out.  You could certainly blame Acosta for not stepping up to the ball a bit more aggressively but otherwise you have to tip your cap and say they got the break they were looking for.

Now on offense, its a different story.  There's not a person healthy on the roster right now that anyone in MLS should fear.  I love what Yapi is showing, but he's not a threat yet.  Our wingers have been non-existent.  Ronan has looked good, but hasn't shown himself to be a threat in front of goal.  Cole Bassett seems to have come back not with a chip on his shoulder but with an inflated ego.  He seemed more interested in being annoyed with his teammates than trying to score in San Jose.

To show you how ineffective our attack was, our best xG in this game was 0.2.  From Andreas Maxsø (Yapi was second at 0.14).  That's the second time in two games that a central defender has had the best xG (Abubakar had 0.39 against Seattle).  In comparison Barrios has 0.42 and Nicholson has 0.30...for the whole season.  Million-dollar signing Cabral has a whopping 0.0 so far.  Yapi's 1.23 xG leads the team after 3 games.

There's just no cohesive attack.  Until that's fixed teams will just absorb what little pressure we can put on without any concern.  It appears the attack this season is fully dependent on Diego Rubio, which is poor strategy and poor roster building.

Man of the Match: Andreas Maxsø.  As mentioned he had the best chance at goal, and he led a pretty good defensive effort.  In a game where nobody did much of anything, that stands out.

Do You Know The Way To San Jose?

Or at least, do we know the way to the San Jose goal?  That's the question Fraser has hopefully been asking the side this week as the Rapids are still looking for their first goal of 2023.  Their next opportunity is tomorrow night where they'll take on the Earthquakes (nee Clash*) at 8:30 MT.  On the call this week are Nate Bukaty and Danielle Slaton.  Adrian Garcia Marquez and Francisco Pinto will have the call in Spanish.  This match is free to everyone on Apple TV, the MLS Season Pass subscription is not required this week.

Availability Report:

OUT: D Moise Bombito (knee), F Diego Rubio (knee), F Yaya Toure (knee)

QUESTIONABLE: M Jack Price (back)

All three goalkeepers travelled to San Jose for the game, I'm going to bet Ilic will get the spot on the bench over Rodriguez.  Michael Edwards was recalled from San Antonio this week after it was revealed that Bombito will be out for a few weeks due to the knee injury he suffered in training last Thursday.  Notable not on the list this week is Jonathan Lewis, who has been cleared to begin full training.  He obviously won't start but I think he'll be on the bench.

Also tonight the Chilean FA announced their pool of international players they will be picking from for their friendly against Paraguay on March 28th, Diego Rubio was on the list (as was Blackburn Rovers' Ben Brereton-Diaz).  I'd be surprised if he is actually called up, I don't see the Rapids being willing to have him fly to South America coming off of (or still recovering from) knee surgery, just for a friendly.

The Rapids have already announced that this will be the debut of the New Day kit, so it will be light blue vs. San Jose's dark blue.  As far as the lineup goes I don't see many changes, other than Cabral has to start eventually, right?  Yarbrough, coming off a Team of the Week performance, will obviously get the start in net, and I don't see Fraser changing from the backline that got the shut out last week.  Maybe se see Nicholson instead of Barrios, but I hope not.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Ronan.  With all the focus this week on the attack, according to reports, I think we get our first goal.  I don't see us winning this one though, not on the road where we've been woeful for far too long.

* - Traditionally I title my game previews against San Jose with a Clash song title, as a nod to their original name.  This time around though Dionne Warwick's song was too good to pass up given our goal-scoring woes

Leagues Cup Schedule Released

The schedule for the group stage of the Leagues Cup was released today.  As a reminder we're in a 3-team group with Nashville SC and Toluca of Liga MX.  Each team will play each other once, top two teams move on to the knockout stage.

Game 1: Colorado Rapids @ Nashville SC - July 23rd

Game 2: Toluca @ Nashville SC - July 27th

Game 3: Toluca @ Colorado Rapids - July 31st

As expected, the Rapids-Nashville game goes first, then Toluca flies in to play its two games and will know if its moving on as soon as their done, so they can go to their next match or fly home.  Somewhat surprisingly we get the best schedule, with 8 days between our two games.  Both Nashville and Toluca will play their second game 4 days later.  I assumed that Nashville, as the seeded team playing at home, would get the greater rest.

All season-ticket holders had the Rapids-Toluca game included in their season ticket packages.  Tickets for the match will go on sale tomorrow.

The teams that advance will play the Round of 32 matches on Aug. 2nd-4th, the Round of 16 Aug, 6th-8th, the Quarterfinals Aug, 11th & 12th, the Semifinals Aug. 15th, and the 3rd Placed game & Final on Aug. 19th (third-place mattes because the top 3 teams get a CONCACAF Champions League berth).

The two Liga MX-Liga MX group stage games are being played at the venue of the MLS team in their group.  In the Round of 32 and beyond the MLS team will host any matches against Liga MX side, matches against other MLS sides will be hosted by the group winner in the Round of 32 and by the higher placed team in the 2022 Shield standings for future rounds.  Liga MX-Liga MX games in the knockout rounds will be played in MLS venues determined by the organizers.

Freezing For Nothing

A scoreless draw is not worth standing out in near-freezing weather on an early March night for, but that's what we got on Saturday.  The Rapids looked better than they did in Seattle (they could hardly look worse) but that still wasn't enough to actually score a goal, and it took a record performance from Yarbrough to keep SKC off the board.  Unless Diego Rubio gets healthy quick this might be a long month for Colorado.

A little different writeup this week, going to alternate pros and cons until I run out of one (hopefully cons):

• Home sweet home.  The home opener is always a good day even if its freezing, just because we're all back at the Dick
• That said, a night game before Daylight Savings Time is not recommended.  It got so dark with an hour to go in the tailgate that we gave up figuring out who was actually standing around.  I understand Apple wants all games at 7:30 but if I'm the Rapids I push for an earlier time somehow.  I don't want them to be on the road for three weeks though.
• The work C38 and the Front Office put into the South end looked great.  The Man of the Match Oar display in particular stood out.
• If only DSG Park Operations had put as much into their planning.  The long lines at every store and for the Season Ticket Holder gift were unnecessary.  (Also annoying that the New Day kit socks apparently sold out before the first home game)
• VAR got both major decisions correct in this game, the goal waved off for offside was clear on the first replay they showed on the scoreboard screen.  The goal that did not cross the line was too close to overturn given the angles so it wasn't clear and obviously wrong not to over turn it.  I know that's frustrating to hear, but in the long run correct officiating is a good thing.
• That said, Alan Chapman has had better games.  He got the big calls right, and didn't impact the result, but there was some ticky-tack stuff that seemed to be poorly called.
• Shoutout to the defense for significant improvement.  Beitashour was a big upgrade to Gersbach and in general things were actually organized.  Yarbrough had to come up with a record number of saves (more on that later) but the majority of them were on balls hit right to him.  It wasn't until late in the game that he really had to come up big.
• Benching Gersbach after one game is concerning, as is Cabral still not starting.  This suggests players who aren't ready (yet) for the season.  Every game matters, 3 points now is as valuable as 3 points in October.  I don't like this idea that the Rapids are easing people in.
• You can see Yapi has all the potential in the world and he is close to putting it together.  Love to see that in a young player.
• But as I said in my predictions, I still think next year is his breakout year.  This year is him being an accompanying piece.
• Early returns are that Ronan was our best offseason pickup.  Two games in and he's locked in a starting spot (contrary to my prediction).  Him and Price teaming up could be a real solid midfield.
• Nicholson can't play the role he's being asked to play.  He can't create in the middle when he switches.  If we're going to start him (and we shouldn't at this point) he needs to be on the line the whole game.
• To be fair, last week I said Barrios shouldn't be starting and he proved me wrong this week.  I still don't think he should be a regular starter but I'll give it a chance.
• Last con: The p*** chant appeared in and around 117.  It was not any of the C38 or Mile High Lokos in those sections, but being a new season with new fans it appears that some of them thought it was "cool" and "edgy" to do that chant.  It isn't.  C38 has already released a statement accepting responsibility (but not blame) for it and vowing to re-eliminate it.  We all got complacent about the chant after having eliminated it a couple of years ago, well that's over.  Time to get back to work.

Man of the Match: William Yarbrough.  He set a team record with 11 saves in a shoutout, the first Rapid keeper to do that.  As I said earlier a number of them didn't make him work but he came up with 2-3 big ones late to preserve the 0 on the board.  Apparently Ilic getting his vis has reignited some competitive spirt, which I think was part of the reason we brought Ilic in.  Will was also named to the MLS Team of the Week for his performance and is nominated for the Player of the Week award.

The Season Really Starts Now

Ok, we're just going to ignore last week and focus on the home opener as the real start of the season.  Always good to be at home and the weather isn't going to be as bad as feared a week or so ago.  Temps in the high 30's at game time and dry, which is significantly better than we've had for a number of openers.  SKC comes in off a loss and on one day less rest.  Kickoff tomorrow is at the new standard time of 7:30pm (all home games this year will be at 7:30 and all road trips will be at 7:30 local for the home team now that our one TV game is done).  The tailgate still starts at the traditional time of 4pm, and there will be live music and player appearances at most tailgates this season.

Availability Report:

OUT: D Moise Bombito (knee), F Diego Rubio (knee), F Yaya Toure (knee)

QUESTIONABLE: M Jonathan Lewis (ankle), M Jack Price (back)

The only new addition this week is Bombito, who apparently hurt his knee in training on Thursday.  I'm not sure we'll see either questionable player be available, I'm sure they won't start.  Ilic is no longer listed so I assume his visa paperwork is done and he'll be the backup on the bench.  KC has 6 players on their injury report, so both sides are coming in banged up.

I know what you're thinking.  The same defense that got ripped apart in Seattle?  Yeah, I think we'll largely see the same group.  Fraser isn't going to bench anyone after one game and this group needs to figure out how to play together.  I can see putting Acosta in front of them over Priso though.  And I don't see Barrios starting again, its time for Cabral to earn that DP salary.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Yapi.  After last week even a draw feels optimistic, there's no way I'm going out out on a limb in predicting a win.  I expect both teams to be sloppy and a little desperate, but Colorado comes back to earn a point after giving up a stupid goal in the first half.

Colorado Loans Vallecilla To Columbus For Season

Today the Rapids announced that CB Gustavo Vallecilla has been loaned to the Crew for the season in exchanged for $175K in GAM with an option to buy.  Tom Bogert also reported that the option is for $700K in GAM.

Vallecilla was acquired last season from Cincinnati for $400K in GAM last year and $400K in GAM this year.  So even when you account for the $175K we get from this loan we're still paying Cinci $225K in GAM this year for Vallecilla to play for Columbus.  That doesn't include the $400K in cash on top of the GAM that we paid to cover the remaining transfer fee from his Ecuadorian club.

Vallecilla spent more time with Rapids 2 than with the first team last season, largely because when he did play for the first team he wasn't good.  He wasn't a MLS caliber back last season and based on the fact that he spent the end of preseason training with Rapids 2 and not the main squad it seems like he wasn't going to be high on the depth chart this year.  Maybe the Crew will be able to find time for him and he'll improve, but I'm not holding my breath.  He'll need to have a killer year for the Crew to trigger that buy clause and get us close to breaking even on the deal.

Its great we got something for essentially nothing here, but make no mistake, this was a putting lipstick on a pig move.  The trade for Vallecilla looks like once of the worst trades this club has made in some time.  Its not hard to argue its the worst trade since Ballouchy-Beckerman.  At least we're not doubling down on it and playing somebody who isn't up to MLS level.