Here We Go Again

 

My apologies.  On Friday I wrote a preview of the opening game of the 2024 season.  I wasn't aware we were just replaying the 2023 season.  Because from where I sat, I saw a lot more 2023 Rapids out there on Saturday night than anything that looked like a new 2024 Rapids.

for a team that talked about playing in transition, Portland ran over us in transition.  What we claimed we were going to do, they did.  Sure enough we were down 1 in the first 10, 2 in the first 15, and 3 in the first 30.  Much like our worst games last year.  The Sam Vines own goal just before half was icing on the cake.

The Rapids did get one back in the second half, even though it took VAR to confirm it crossed the line.  Nice start for Harris who got the start as expected, but it was far too little too late.  A number of fans are pointing to the second half as evidence that things got better and we've improved from last year, but its very easy to look good against a team that's taken its foot all the way off the gas knowing they've got the game wrapped up after a half where they completely dominated and leads by four goals.

Other random thoughts:

• Marko Ilic didn't even make the bench for this one, Adam Beaudry was Steffen's backup.  Maybe they were rewarding Beaudry for his preseason work (more on that below) but its not a great look for Ilic to have fallen down to 3rd less than a year after we paid a notable transfer fee for him.
• Oliver Larraz got the start over Diack and Löffelsend and it wasn't good.  After the game Armas said tht he had earned the start with his work in the preseason (likewise Jackson Travis subbing in for Vines) but if Larraz really beat out Löffelsend as the backup d-mid we're in a world of hurt because Larraz did not look ready to play the role.  Portland ran him over.  The 6 role was the key need in the offseason and it doesn't look like we sufficiently filled it after one game.
• Of course the other key role was the number 9 and Navarro looked just as good as last year, which is to say not good at all.
• You hate to say it, but the worst performance of the night went to Rosenberry who got burned on the first two Timbers goals and never recovered.  Last time I saw a captain getting beat that bad a Gorn was on the other side.
• The defensive breakdowns were very similar to 2023, players out of position, lack of communication, and lack of teammates covering.  Disappointing.
• Offense was very similar as well, lots of chance creation, very little accurate shooting.
• The Rapids have now been outscored 11-1 in their last 4 season openers (and the first of those was a 0-0 draw.  Which, yes, means Harris' goal was the first opening day goal since 2020.
• This was an absolute worst possible start for an organization who wants to turn around its image this year.  Any sort of good feelings or honeymoon from what was a good offseason have essentially been dashed,  From the POV of the standings Saturday's home opener against Nashville isn't a must win, but to convince the fanbase that something has actually changed it might be, especially with trips to FSL and Seattle following it.

Man of the Match: Nada.  Not giving this out until something has actually changed from last year.

We Go Again

Ok, time to put 2023 behind us and move into 2024.  New coach, lots of new players, and the return of the Sam Dimes/Goal Bassett combination.  We get this season started in Portland tonight against an equally revamped Timbers squad, also with a new coach (and while Armas was not my top choice, I'd easily choose him over Neville).  Kickoff tonight is at 8:30 as the Apple TV returns with the standard 7:30 local kickoff times.  Unfortunately we have the commentary duo of Rogondino and Pearce and they were...not good last year with comments that made it clear they weren't tracking the team.  We'll see if they improve this year, or if Apple finally gets the road radio call synced up.

Availability Report:

OUT: D Daniel Chacon (ACL tear), KSB (Canada U-20s)

QUESTIONABLE: D Sam Vines (flu)

I won't list Chacon every week until he's close to returning and he's actually still here and not on loan somewhere.  Sam Vines missed the last preseason game in Orlando with the flu but sounded pretty good during his kickoff week PR appearances around town.  Portland has 3 players out and 2 more questionable, including Crepeau who's working on his green card process and may or may not be available tonight.

This is pretty close to our best XI.  Diack just arrived so I think Löffelsend gets the start over him this week, and Fernandez missed a couple of preseason games with a knock so I think Harris will step in for him this game.  Otherwise that is our starting XI this season if everyone is available.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Bassett.  Its really impossible to make any sort of accurate prediction going into the first game of the season where both teams have changed so much.  So this is really a gut feel that a draw seems likely but I don't see it being scoreless.  Lets get Goal Basset on the scoreboard early this season.

Roster Compliance Day Means Saying Goodbye

Today was roster compliance day for the league (other than Miami and FSL, who had to be compliant before their game Wednesday night) which means a number of trades and cuts, and the Rapids did both today.  First of all we say goodbye to Alex Gersbach, who was bought out, and Sidnei Tavares, who was waived and will return from his loan.

Gersbach was bought from Ligue 2 side Gernoble for a reported $325K last offseason and never showed he was a MLS-caliber player, getting ripped to shreds in the 4-0 loss in Seattle to start the season.  After tha he only had two more appearances, starting against SJ 2 weeks later (a 1-0 loss), and against Atlanta in May (a 4-0 loss).  3 starts, a total of 9-0 scorelines against us.  He had surgery for a cronic injury in July and never suited up again.  Unless that injury occurred in preseason (it was after he arrived at some point) its hard to imagine what he could have showed in France that made Smith believe he was a MLS-level starter as he never appeared anywhere close to it.

Tavares was brought in during the summer window on loan.  By the time his paperwork was complete the season was for all intents and purposes over, but despite that he only made 5 appearances.  Most of his time here last season was spent on the injury report with an undisclosed illness.  Per Matt Pollard ad Burgundy Wave it couldn't have been COVID as that would have been reported differently, his best guess is that he struggled with altitude sickness.  Regardless he didn't show much in his 5 appearances and with the addition of Diack, Mihailovic, Löffelsend, and Fernandez he was going to be low in the pecking order this year.

Looking back at 2023 the club added Ronan, Maxso, Ilic, Cabral, Gersbach, Tavares, and Navarro.  Ronan looks like a good signing and I have hoped for Maxso.  The rest over are somewhere between a question mark (Navarro) and a diaster (Gersbach).  I can almost forgive Navarro and Tavares.  Those were moves made after losing Price and Max for the year and Rubio for big chunks of the season so you need to make quick additions and bringing them in on loan to see if they help gives you an out.  Ilic, Cabral, and Gersbach are unforgiveable though, I really don't know what our scouts saw in them.

After making those two moves the Rapids traded a now open international spot to the Red Bulls for $175K in GAM.

Full credit to the Rapids for doing something I've been wanting for years.  After making those moves they put out a detailed roster explanation, listing every player and every category they fill.  This is extremely helpful for looking at where we can make some moves come the end of the window in May or the summer window.  Atlanta set the standard today, putting out not only this info but also detailed contract info with length and option years listed.

We officially have 30 players under contract right now, with 6 internationals (Cabral, Diack, Ilić, Maxsø, Navarro, and Ronan).  Our 3 DP slots are filled by Cabral, Mihailovic, and Navarro.  Diack, Maxsø, Steffen and Vines are on TAM deals while Bassett is ouir only current U22 player.  Chacón is on the injury list which means he doesn't currently take up a roster/international spot as he rehabs from his ACL tear in October.

There will be a preview of the Portland game either later tonight or first thing in the morning.

As Expected Keita Won't Be In Colorado, But Now Ireland?

After spending essentially the whole offseason training with an Austrian Bundesliga club it was fairly obvious Aboubacar Keita would not be in the plans for the Rapids this season.  What wasn't foreseen is that his new location would be Bohemian FC in the League of Ireland, not Austria.  The move was made official today with both Colorado and Bohemian announcing a one year loan with a right of recall.  Other reports are that there is no option to buy in the deal.

Bohemian needs a center back after Rob Cornwall blew out his knee.  Before moving to Ireland Cornwall's last team was the Northern Colorado Hailstorm.  The Centennial state seems to be a popular recruitment spot for the Irish side.

I'm not sure what it says about Keita though if he's moving to get playing time in a league that has recently pulled from the USL1, a league two levels lower than MLS and roughly equivalent to the MLS Next Pro Rapids 2 side Keita would likely get time with in Colorado.  It does seem that Keita is focused on making a move to Europe and this is certainly going to give him more of a shop window than playing for R2 would.

In unrelated news the Rapids made the formal announcement of the coaching staff today.  The notable piece of news is that Wolde Harris was not retained by Chris Armas.  You can always expect some turnover when a new coach comes in, but its always hard to see a former player now coach move on.

2024 Preview and Predictions

Last week I mentioned reviewing the C38 letter and evaluating what the Front Office did this offseason to do better.  As I started writing that recap on Monday night though I realized that a good part off that letter references things I don't have a way of forming an opinion on yet.  Is the team better on the field?  I don't know, we haven't played a real game yet.  Is the experience at the stadium improved?  I don't know, I haven't been out there yet.  It didn't seem fair to really go into those until we have some actual experiences and data to go on.  So at a good point in the next month or two I'll circle back on that.

So that means we're on to the preview and predictions.  Perfect timing as the season just kicked off with me actually rooting for Messi to win, of course they are hosting FSL tonight.

This offseason the Rapids actually went out and found some solid players and spent some real money.  The big problem, from my POV, is they didn't spend money on the two critical spots they had to fill coming out of 2023.  Namely defensive mid and striker.  Instead at both positions we have a player on a loan that ends in July and questionable depth behind him.  Our season rides on how well those two players do, particularly Navarro at striker, and if they earn a full transfer that we actually pull the trigger on.

Away from those two positions this is a pretty strong starting XI.  Zack Steffen in net fixes the hole created by botching the Yarbrough succession plan/Ilic transfer last season.  Maxso and Rosenberry can be expected to at least be MLS quality on the back line and likely supporting the young but talented Bombito between them.  And of course the most fam-friendly move of the season was bringing Sam Vines back at LB to fill the hole created when Sam Vines left really locks down that position.  In midfield Ronan and Bassett are back but with new friends on the outside, Mihailovic and Fernandez should provide better service than anything we saw last year.

After that the depth has some questions.  Striker is the exact same depth as last year, which wasn't good.  Our winger depth are the starters from last year, Cabral and Lewis, which, eh.  Our defense at least has some strength in numbers with Abubakar and Anderson giving us some options if needed.  Overall those this season will largely rise or fall based on our starting XI.  Löffelsend at d-mind is the only backup I expect might break through to really push for starting time.

The talking heads of MLS media seem to think the same way.  Between MLSsoccer.com and the Athletic 22 people have put out predicted final conference standings.  Only 7 of them think the Rapids make the playoffs.  This after an offseason of a club record transfer fee on Mihailovic , grabbing two other fringe National teamers in Steffan and Vines, and bringing in two other starters in Diack and Fernandez.  That's a big amount of investment by this FO, arguably the biggest ever, and the general response seems to be "eh, not enough".  Brutal.  That tells you how much of a hole this team is in.

Ok, on to predictions.  I've been getting steadily worse with these, we'll see if this is the year to reverse my fortunes.

• The Rapids either don't participate in the USOC (due to the ongoing negotiations between the USSF and MLS) or if they do they get knocked out in their first two rounds to another MLS team.
• They also don't get out of their Leagues Cup group, but give Portland a scare in Portland.  Leon is too much for them at home in Colorado though.
• And to finish out the competitions, they finish 10th overall and miss the playoffs.  They're eliminated in the next-to-last week.
• All that said, the team is improved and plays entertaining soccer at times.  It won't be the pointless soccer we saw last season.
• The rapids don't buy Diack or Navarro at their current price this summer.  Navarro doesn't show enough to be worth $4.5M and Diack gets renegotiated to a lower number before we complete the transfer.
• Needing a striker to replace Navarro Colorado makes a big trade within MLS for a striker in the summer window.
• Mihailovic is the Golden Boot and Player of the Year.  He gets back into the National Team picture by the end of the season.
• Steffen gets a look by the Nats for either the Gold Cup or the Copa, and becomes part of the regular Nats rotation.
• Vines is Defensive Player of the Year but doesn't get a Nats look.
• With trips to Portland, Salt Lake, Seattle, and LAFC in the first 6 weeks the Rapids will be looking up the table all season after getting no more than 2 points out of those 4 games.
• Because of that, and the fact that we have to go back to Sandy in May before FSL comes to Colorado, we once again fail to win the Rocky Mountain Cup.

Ok, that's pretty pessimistic.  But after 2023 can you blame me?

Wavin' Flag

Colorado dropped their new shirt today, the One Flag kit.  A classic burgundy look with sky blue highlights and a checkerboard pattern that waves its way across the jersey.  The pattern is a tribute to supporters flags waved at the Dick, like the burgundy and blue ones given out for the Thanksgiving Day playoff match.  It also reminds me of K'naan's song Wavin' Flag.  If you watched the 2010 World Cup you heard it during any Coke ad.

This is a solid looking shirt that's probably at least more interesting than our last few home kits.  That said, its just a slightly different take on our classic home kit.  That's fine.  The Rapids want to be a club that has a standard look at home and then does different things with its road kits.  Much like Blackburn Rovers, who are always blue and white halves and the only question is what accent color are they going to use and are they going to go back to the earlier lighter blue or stick with the more modern darker blue in any given year.

Along with the jersey drop the Rapids also announced that this kit celebrates the connection between the club and the fans, and they backed that up by partnering with the Colorado Soccer Foundation to sponsor soccer-specific after school programming in the Adams 14 school district (which includes the schools near Dick's Sporting Goods Park).  Over the next two summers the Rapids will also be sponsoring pick-up games at the Dick and Soccer City Aurora.

The New Day kit will continue for another year as our road kit.

The big negative about these kits are something the Rapids don't control, and that's the price.  $195 for an authentic player name/number kit, $160 for a plain authentic, $100 for a replica.  And the replicas are noticeably different from the real thing, missing trip, patches, and the star above the badge.  Adidas sets these prices for the league and they're ridiculous.  I could order 2-3 kits from team sin Europe with shipping for that price.  More if I went the mystery box route.  I won't be buying a new kit this year for many reasons, but the top one is price.  Instead I'll expend my collection of kits buy adding other teams.

I know for preseason its been fairly quiet around here, but there hasn't been much to talk about.  Recapping game scores of closed-door scrimmages doesn't really add much.  But that changes now that we're entering game week.  I'll have a comment on how the organization has done this offseason in response to the fan protest at the end of last year, the normal season preview and predictions, and a game preview next Friday.

Braian Galvan Transferred to Argentina

For a week or so its been rumored that Galvan was going to go back to Argentina.  The rumor was a loan for the season with an option to buy with Talleres.  Today the Rapids made the move official, but it turned out to be a straight transfer to Club Atlético Banfield.  Presumably they came in with a better offer.  Galvan ends his 4 years in Denver with 53 appearances, 4 goals, 4 assists, and 2 notable red cards.

Galvan turns out to be another attempt at finding a young player in South America and developing him into a regular starter and/or selling them on to Europe, but that path has yet to work with any of our signings.  The likes of Juan Ramirez, Lucas Esteves, and Max fall into this category as well, with similar results.  At some point you have to think that maybe whatever Colorado is doing in finding these players and then training them isn't working out.  Galvan might have been the best chance, an unfortunate injury seems to have been the real thing that held him back.

With his absence the Rapids now have 32 players under contract, but most liked 28 that will be available for selection during the season.  M. Navarro, R. Cabral, D. Chacon, and A. Keita, for a variety of different reasons, are unlikely to be on the roster for selection this season.  That does give the team an open international slot and room to add another plater should they want to.

Lamine Diack Arrives

Today Colorado made the signing of Diack official, on a 6 month loan "through July" with an option to buy.  As we saw last season with Ilic "through July" is a little broad, Ilic's "through July" was actually to the opening of MLS's Secondary Window on July 5th.  If that's true with Diack it will likely be until the window opens on July 18th this year.  That would be 25 league matches, plus whatever happens in the USOC.

I'm still a little concerned that going into the offseason we really needed to solve our holes at striker and defensive midfielder, and it appears we will enter the season with those solutions being two players who don't have much experience at the MLS or above level, and who are both on loans that expire in July.  If we go into the final RMC game on July 20th starting Yapi up front and Löffelsend in midfield because we declined the buy option after the loans its going to waste what's been a fairly good offseason otherwise.

With that I think we are likely done with any significant acquisitions.  Diack will reportedly take up our final international slot, and we now have 33 players under contract if my math is correct, against a roster limit of 30.  Remi Cabral and Navarro are on season long loans, and Daniel Chaco is on injured reserve, which should get us to 30 (some MLS roster rules are unclear around this), plus it seems unlikely Keita will be with the team when the season starts given his training in Austria.  So the Rapids should be down to the roster cap successfully, but they don't really have room for any other major acquisitions.  Here's the full roster as it sits now.  Again, the international and homegrown designations are my best guess based on where players were classified last year.

Goalkeepers:

Adam Beaudry - Homegrown

Marko Ilic - International

Zack Steffen

Defenders:

Lalas Abubakar

Seb Anderson - Homegrown

Moise Bombito - Generation Adidas

Daniel Chacon

Michael Edwards - Homegrown(?)

Alex Gersbach - International

Nate Jones

Aboubacar Keita

Andreas Maxsø - International

Miguel Navarro

Keegan Rosenberry

Sam Vines

Midfielders:

Cole Bassett - Homegrown

Lamine Diack - International

Omir Fernandez - Homegrown(?)

Wayne Fredrick

Braian Galvan - International(?)

Oli Larraz - Homegrown

Jasper Löffelsend

Djordje Mihailovic - Designated Player

Ralph Priso - Homegrown(?)

Connor Ronan - International

Sidnei Tavares - International

Forwards:

Remi Cabral - International

Kevin Cabral - Designated Player, International

Calvin Harris - Generation Adidas

Jonathan Lewis

Rafael Navarro - Designated Player, International

Kimani Stewart-Baynes - Generation Adidas

Darren Yapi - Homegrown