A Rare Afternoon Game Tomorrow

We get an afternoon game in Commerce City tomorrow with a rare 2pm kickoff against LAFC.  Its the only one of the season at home so enjoy it, especially since it won't be blazing 90 degree temps of July and August.  LAFC might have an old friend with them as this afternoon they announced the signing of Kei Kamara.  I don't know if Kei can be in the gameday squad just 21 hours after signing, certainly he won't be starting, but maybe we'll see him on the bench?  The brunch-themed tailgate will start around 11, maybe a touch earlier.  I'll be happy if I can get there in time to grab a couple of dogs before kickoff, I did not realize it was a day game until last weekend and have plans tomorrow morning.

Player Availability:

OUT: M Jonathan Lewis (knee), M Jasper Löffelsend (hamstring), M Connor Ronan (knee)

The good thing is that Bombito is back from his time with Canada, where he was in the gameday roster but didn't get any minutes.  The bad news is that our midfield depth is starting to look fairly iffy.

The only position in midfield I'm confident about is Larraz.  I feel very confident about the other 6 positions on the field as well.  The 4 midfielders around Oli though?  Your guess is as good as mine right now.  Bassett and Mihailović will start, but I don't know where.  I put Diack in because if not now, when?  That last spot could be Fernandez or Harris.  Or both if Diack doesn't start and Bassett drops back.  Or we could see Yapi on the wing again (lets not see Yapi on the wing again).

BTW the Rapids only have 8 players listed as midfielders on their website.  They're either injured, on loan, or in my starting XI projection.  Any likely depth on the bench are players like Cabral, Harris, and Stewart-Baynes who are listed as forwards officially.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Navarro.  LAFC is off to a slow start this season (for them) and their defense has been a little iffy.  I think we can finally get a non-own goal home goal, but not a win.

The Badge, The Players, The Fans Deserve Better...Have They Gotten It?

I mentioned before the season that I wanted to follow up on the Centennial 38 protest letter from last year to see what progress has been made, but I wanted to wait until we got into the season a bit.  Well, since March ends this weekend this seemed a relevant time to do it (more on the timing later).  To remind everyone, the letter from C38 can be read here, with the KSE response here.  Also, to state my biases up front, I helped craft the C38 letter and I stand by what was said in it.  But to be clear, this column is my personal opinion of where things have gone since then, this does not reflect in any way what C38's current stance is.

Starting right off the top, what the letter was calling for above anything else was investment.  Investment in money but also in time and just general 'giving a damn'.  What investment have we seen?

When it comes to the roster the club certainly increased their investment (we'll get to how well they did with that investment later).  Signing Zach Steffen, Sam Vines, Lamine Diack, and spending a club-record amount to bring Djordje Mihailovic represents possibly the biggest offseason this club has had in its history.  The choice of Chris Armas for coach however screams Smith not being given much of a budget after firing Mastroeni, Hudson, and Fraser. 

Another concern from the letter was subpar training facilities and an outdated stadium.  There have been no major announcements about investment in the training facilities, though Burgundy Wave did report the turf practice field and at least one of the grass practice fields were replaced.  

There have been minimal if any upgrades to the stadium that are noticeable to the average fan.  The scoreboard is still a running joke, and if the audio system was upgraded its hard to notice.  There are a few new food options but no major overhaul to reach the Footy Scran level shown by non-league clubs in England.  Most of the ad boards on the light poles and scoreboard still look like they haven't been cleaned since they were put up.  Anecdotally it appears there are still issues with Argus security hassling the fan section, based on the run-in I had on Saturday night.  That said, there have been a few positive steps, the most noticeable has been the addition of game announcements in Spanish.  The Spanish-speaking market has long been woefully underserved by this organization so its good to see them making that effort.

We've also seen a lack of interest from ownership above Padraig Smith.  The first comments from the new President of Team and Media Operations showed that he had no clue about the culture and experience of Rapids fans, despite claiming he had attended the game the weekend before.  Referencing a non-existent "pregame march" and integration with the community that there's been no evidence of suggests that he was given some bullet points to hit more than he was relating anything he actually saw.  The lack of any follow-up after that, even to clean up his comments, kind of shows where the Rapids stand in his (and KSE as a whole's) mind.

While we're talking about KSE's response, lets go back to the promises "Josh Kroenke" made in his response letter.

On the field, we are focused on returning the team to the level of competitiveness we expect and have seen in recent years

Well so far this season the team looks a great deal like the Robin Fraser teams of the past few years, with that level of competitiveness, so I guess that's been achieved, though not in the way they meant.  Chris Armas talked in preseason about "playing in transition" yet Joseph Lowery showed on MLssoccer.com this week that we're using the same slow possession game we've used the last couple of years under Fraser.

Off the field, we have already engaged Legends, Civitas, Perkins & Will, and Turner Construction on a number of feasibility studies and analyses around potential infrastructure projects as we assess a future vision for DICK'S Sporting Goods Park and the Club's training environment. We are also actively evaluating additional ways to enhance the gameday experience inside and outside the stadium.

The team did hold a couple of open house sessions with fans this offseason and sent out a survey to find out what the fans wanted to see at the Dick.  However, having taken the survey myself, what they seemed to be asking is "what amenities would get you to pay higher prices for tickets" when really what the fans need is for the basic experience to be brought up to a modern standard.  Making the North Boundary or the suites into a premium experience doesn't help the family of 4 sitting in section 110 having to choose between reheated hot dogs and stadium nachos.  It suggests that, once again, KSE has missed the point.

Over the next few months, we will be finalizing the master plan for our exciting Victory Crossing Project. When this is ready in early 2024, we will be hosting several open forums with supporters and members of the community to gather feedback on our plans for the club, stadium and entire project.

Remember that comment about the end of March being an appropriate time to have this conversation?  That's because its about the last point you can call it "early 2024".  Maybe you can stretch it into early April, or maybe they meant "early in the 2024 season" but either way, we're about out of time and so far I haven't heard anything about this master plan for the "exciting" Victory Crossing.  Well, that's not entirely true.  We did hear in the offseason that KSE was partnering with local colleges to have students help with drafting the plan as part of their education.  Which certainly suggests that when they wrote the above in September plans weren't nearly as far along as Josh made it appear.

Now all of this comes with the obvious caveat that its only been 6 months.  We weren't going to become a top-tier MLs organization in that time.  The frustration though is that there appears to be nothing but lip service given to the idea of improving.  We have a team that has scored one goal from the run of play in the first 5 games, have given 3 points away by giving up very late goals in the first two hone games (while only scoring a single goal, and that an own goal), and continues to try to sell a sub-standard gameday experience.  The very visible example of this is the failing scoreboard, while their opponents down I-70, Sporting KC, managed to do a complete revamp of their video setup in one offseason.  If more is coming, then make an effort to show it to us.

To answer the question I asked in the title of the piece, no, we haven't gotten better yet.  While we have some shiny new pieces on the field (that haven't yet changed any results), the rest of the organization is still far behind even a midlevel Major League Soccer team. This isn't an org that can expect to compete year in and year out, which is the bar Padraig Smith has stated on multiple occasions.

Scab Ref Costs Rapids A Point, Hides Team's Ineptness

This is a game Colorado would have gotten a point out of with the regular refs.  But this is also a game that the Rapids only have themselves to blame for losing.  A continuing issue reared its head again, the inability to put the ball in the net.

Lets start with the elephant in the room.  On what was essentially the final play the Rapids were caught out by Houston, played poorly, and threw away the point.  But its a play that should have never gotten to that point.  Maxsø was down in the box bleeding after being elbowed in the face.  Referees are clearly directed to stop play for a head wound, and a player bleeding from the head down in the attacking box while play is going on is a clear incident of that.  Play should have been stopped and the ref cost the home team a point, arguably 3 if a PK had been called on the elbow to Maxsø's face.

That said, it never should have gotten to that point.  The lack of offense in this team is a serious problem at this point.  This was a weakened Houston side that, much like Seattle last week, was beatable but we couldn't get anything going in the attacking third.  This team has been unable to breakdown a low block for the last two seasons, and this season appears to be no different.  We had two shots with a xG above 0.10, a 0.11 shot from Cabral and a 0.12 shot from Mihailovic.  If that's the best we can do we're in for a very long season.

Our three DPs are Navarro, Cabral, and Mihailovic.  Combined they have 34 starts, 50 appearances, and a grand total of 5 goals and 2 assists.  Essentially they're involved in one goal every 5 starts.  Excuse me?  How is this in any way acceptable?  Navarro has 16 games left to prove he's worth $4.5 million.  At this point I wouldn't pay $450K.  Cabral is a bust but we've known that for a while.  Mihailovic has not fit in with this team yet and I don't think 5 games is too soon to have expectations for the biggest signing the club has ever made returning to a league he excelled in just 18 months ago.

Meanwhile we have Lamine Diack.  Here for 5 of his 26 games and gotten 0 minutes.  That's not how you use a TAM-player.

At this point, despite a surprise 4-point road trip to Sandy and Seattle, this is the same old Rapids.  Armas can talk about "play in transition" and we can change a bunch of players, but until this club actually invests in real scouting and real leadership it won't matter.

Rapids 1 Try To Follow Up Rapids 2 Dominance

Combined pre-game picture of Colorado soccer

As promised, a quick recap on last night's RapiDos Open Cup match before we get on to the preview of tomorrow night's league match.  Rapids 2 had a rather easy night of it, running out 3-0 winners over Azteca.  By no means was Azteca a pushover, but it also never really felt like they were a threat to win either.  Certainly when 2 got their second goal from a Seb Anderson corner just before half you felt like they had the game in hand.  

Four first team players got the start for Rapids 2, Anderson, Adam Beaudry, Kimani Stewart-Baynes, and Wayne Fredrick  Anderson and KSB came off at half, with Seb being replaced by fellow first-teamer Jackson Travis, and Wayne Fredrick came off in the 73rd after picking up an assist on the third goal.  Beaudry played the full 90 in goal, Michael Edwards was not part of the gameday roster.

Today Rapids 2 found out they'll host the Northern Colorado Hailstorm (who beat Union Omaha on Tuesday) in the 2nd round.  That game will be played on April 3rd.  I'm unavailable that night so I'm hoping for a win and another chance of hosting in the 3rd round.

Now, onto the first-team and their match tomorrow night.  The Dynamo are in town for this one, for their first road game of the year.  Much like the Sounders last week they come in with a couple of key pieces questionable for the match and if hey can't go the Rapids have a good chance of getting their first home win.  Kickoff for this one is the normal 7:30pm.

Player Availability:

OUT: Conor Ronan (knee), Moise Bombito (Canadian National Team)

QUESTIONABLE: Jasper Löffelsend (hamstring)

No surprises here.  Ronan is still a few weeks out and they are likely easing Löffelsend back.  Bombito will be playing tomorrow night in Dallas in the Copa America qualification playoff.

With the injures its a little hard to know how Armas will line them up.  I would hope that Diack finally gets a start in this one but since he didn't last week I went with the assumption he wouldn't this week.  I don't think Yapi worked as a winger so I expect if Diack doesn't start then we'll see both Harris and Fernandez on the wings.  Abubakar is the obvious fill-in for Bombito.

Prediction: 1-0 win, goal by Navarro.  Yeah, I'm out over my skies on this one.  But Houston has been busy and a road trip to altitude is not how they get back on their game.  So far they've played a 1-0 win, a 2-1 loss, and a 1-1 draw.  Combined with the Rapids good defense after that first half in Portland I don't expect much scoring.  The home side gets their first shutout of the season and their first home win.

Rapids 2 In The Open Cup Tomorrow

Because of the idiotic decision by MLS to withdraw most of the primary teams from the Open Cup this year, the Rapids only representation will be Rapids 2.  Since they are a MLS Next Pro team they enter in the first round instead of the normal 3rd or 4th round entry we're used to from the first team.  That means the RapiDos will start their Cup run tomorrow night at home facing local Colorado Premier League side Azteca 5280.  At home being at the Dick, with kickoff at 7:30.  Rapids season ticket holders got free tickets and there are enough floating out there that anyone should be able to pick one up pretty easily if they want to go.

Azteca are no strangers to the Open Cup, having qualified multiple times into the first round proper.  Even making it that far is a deep run for the amateur side but this will be their first chance to play an Open Cup game inside Dick's Sporting Goods Park.

For Rapids 2 the rules of the competition this year allow Rapids 1 players to play, but they have to be under the max salary (no TAM or DP players) and have averaged less than 15 minutes in the first 4 games this season.  Colorado has made the following first-team players available for eselection:

D Sebastian Anderson

GK Adam Beaudry

D Michael Edwards

M Wayne Frederick II

D Nate Jones

F Kimani Stewart-Baynes

D Jackson Travis

This doesn't mean they'll make the roster, just that they are available.  There is a loan requirement for anyone that plays that would make it hard for them to return to the first-team is they're on the gameday roster, so there are some decisions to make.

I plan to be out at the Dick tomorrow, so expect a quick recap on Friday before or as part of the preview for Saturday's home game against the Dynamo.

Rapids Fumble Their Way To A Draw

Well, that was something.  A game where it felt like the Rapids were going to lose a game they should of won they pulled out a draw at the last minute.  It was both an unexpected point gained and two points lost at the same time.  IF at the beginning of the season you had told Rapids fans they would have 5 points after 4 games, including a win over FSL, we all would have taken it.  At the same time though, we dropped 2 easy points against Nashville and we probably should have won this game, so its not hard to feel like we're not where we should be based on our play.

At the same time, after the first 45 minutes in Portland this was already looking like a lost season.  Certainly the Rapids teams of the last couple of years would have gotten down after giving up another cheap PK on a hand ball.  Instead the Rapids kept playing good defense and looked for opportunities to get on the board.  Seattle made it easier picking up a mustard-and-ketchup red with about 30 minutes left and Colorado thought they were back in the game when they got a penalty kick shortly thereafter.  Then Mihailović stepped up and took the PK attempt from Navarro, only to hit a rather poor shot close to Seattle's keeper.   Not nearly good enough for a team-record signing.  He partially made up for it in the 88th minute when his free kick was pushed onto the bar by the keeper, only for Cabral to be waiting to tap-in the rebound to level the score.  Cabral had a chance to be a double-hero late but somehow failed to get any contact on a corner inside the 6 and the game ended 1-1.

Again, at halftime in Portland this team looked like a mess, but since then they've only allowed three goals, and two of those were penalties off of stupid handballs.  Sorry Rosenberry, a captain ahs to be smarter than to leave his arm out like that (the less said about Lewis' idiocy, the better).  The defense has managed to figure out their problems fairly quickly.  They'll get tested in a couple of weeks when they go to Miami but against some average offenses they've held their own.

The same can't be said for the offense.  Its telling that the Rapids best non-PK/scoring shot this season (based on xG from FotMob) has come from Sam Vines, midway through that first half in Portland.  There are some real questions to ask about the guys making the top salaries on this roster:

• Djordje Mihailovic - Has not looked like a TAM-level player, much less a "team-record signing" player yet.  His game on Saturday, other than the free kick, was fairly bad and taking a PK away from a guy who made one last week and then hitting an easily saved shot is a bad look.
• Rafael Navarro - Does good things off the ball, but he's being paid to score and he's not scoring.
• Kevin Cabral - Well, we all knoew going into this season who Cabral was and that hasn't changed.  Credit for being in the right place to finish off that goal this week, but is few goals he's had for Colorado have all been like that, where somebody else does all the work and then he has a simple finish.  For a DP he needs to be doing more.
• Lamine Diack - A TAM-level player who's here on loan for the first 20 games can't get a start 4 games in when the players starting in front him are out injured and we play a striker out of position on the wing instead?  That's a really bad sign.  If we don't see him this week its hard to think of him as anything but a bust already.

That's a lot of investment that's not being converted into goals.  DM has a combined xG of 0.86, 0.79 of which comes from the saved penalty.  Navarro's highest non-PK xG is 0.14.  Cabral has two shots outside his goal, of 0.11 and 0.08.  These need to turn around today.

The Rapids are a team that can compete defensively but are still bottom of the league in generating and converting chances.  So far we've scored from a corner kick, an own goal, a penalty, an open play goal, and a free kick.  You can't rely on penalties and own goals, and 3 goals in 4 games is the same pace as we scored at in 2023.  Offensively only a couple of lucky breaks has us looking better than last season.

Man of the Match: Oli Larraz.  Really this feels as much an award for the last couple of games as one just about how he played in Seattle.  He was good in Seattle, but he's been real solid the last three games.

A Chance For A Result In The Emerald City?

Colorado goes to my hometown with a chance to get a result for the first time in a long time, maybe ever.  Seattle is struggling to start the season with only 1 goal in their first two games (last week's game was rained out in Philly).  The Rapids aren't doing much better, but after a horrid first half in Portland their defense has given up one goal from the run of play and one PK on a stupid handball.  High-scoring this is unlikely to be.  Kickoff is an early 1:30pm MT today as the game is on FOX as well as Apple TV.  I'm not sure who FOX will have on the (lesser video quality) broadcast but Max Bretos and Brian Dunseth will have the Apple TV call.

Player Availability:

OUT: Conor Ronan (knee)

QUESTIONABLE: Jasper Löffelsend (hamstring)

We found out this week that the knee injury that forced Ronan to be subbed in the 11th minute last week will keep him on the sidelines for 6-8 weeks.  Not great news.   Seattle will be missing Paula, de la Vega, and Frei so they're really hurting.

With Ronan out and Löffelsend also unlikely to start (especially on turf) I have to assume we see Diack.  If we're not going to start him in this game missing those two players, what was the point of a 6 month loan?  Other than that the only real question is Harris or Fernandez at right wing, I think we stick with Fernandez.

Prediction: 0-0 draw.  I'm not convinced that either of these teams can score reliably, but our defense is looking better.  My main concern is that Jordan Morris starts on the right and eats our left side alive like FSL was doing unsuccessfully last week.  But they still don't have a finisher and neither do we so a screless draw seems a reasonable expectation.

Rapids Return Priso North Of The Border

Colorado made a trade today, sending Ralph Priso to Vancouver in exchange for Vancouver's later of their two first round picks next year and their natural third round pick.  They can also get up to $150K in GAM based on performance.  Tom Bogert reported there would also be a 33% sell on clause which wasn't officially announced.

This is a pretty good return for a player who clearly wasn't progressing and wasn't even making the gameday roster.  Bogert's report says Wayne Frederick had passed him on the depth chart.  So getting a first-round draft pick after being successful (apparently) with Frederick and with Bombito last season and then another pick on top of that is good business.

Priso was originally acquired as part of the trade that sent Kaye to Toronto.  Winding it back a step further we originally traded $1M in GAM and a international slot for a season to LAFC for Kaye and their first round pick.  We turned that pick into $125K in GAM and Markanich.  Markanich was traded for $75K in GAM and St. Louis's first round pick which we turned in another $75K in GAM.

So just from the Kaye trade we ended up with Kaye and $275K in GAM, plus a few games from Markanich.

We then traded Kaye for $1.025M in GAM, an international slot, TFC's 2023 first-round pick, and Priso.  The pick became Moise Bombito, and Priso has now become two more picks.

So in the end we gained $300K in GAM, Moise Bombito, and two picks, plus all the games Markanich, Priso, and Kaye played for the club.  No matter what you think about Markanich and Priso, that's some good work.  Arguably, given Smith's track record, that's better than what he would have done with the initial $1M of GAM we sent to LAFC for Kaye.

Speaking of Bombito, he was called up today for Canada for the Copa America qualifier playoff in two weeks.  He'll be available for this week's game in Seattle, but will then head to Dallas to join up with the Canadian National Team.  He'll miss our next home game against Houston as the playoff game is the same day.

Lastly today the roster rules for the MLS Next Pro teams playing in the Open Cup leaked.  Players will have to be loaned to the MLS Next Pro side from the MLS team for at least 90 days to be eligible and no DP or TAM players are eligible.  Also any players so loaned have to average less than 15 minutes a game through this weekend's MLS games.  Fernandez, Harris, Ronan Navarro, Vines, Larraz, DM, Steffen, Rosenberry, Maxso, Bombito, Bassett, Cabral, and Diack are all ineligible under those rules, and Löffelsend will be ineligible if he plays 19 minutes or more this weekend (Yapi, Lewis, and Travis could all lose eligibility if they play enough minutes in Seattle as well).

Really though, the three month loan requirement is the killer.  I can't see loaning anyone who's likely to get any real playing time this year to Rapids 2 for 3 months just so they can play in the USOC.  Its going to be Nate Jones, Wayne Frederick, or Michael Edwards that might be considered.

Rapids Finally Get 2024 Started With An RMC Win!

It took two and a half games but the Colorado Rapids finally decided to join the 2024 season in the second half Saturday night.  In the process they also frustrated FSL en route to a 2-1 win and reclaiming thee advantage in this year's Rocky Mountain Cup.  Now 45 minutes doesn't erase the other 225 minutes this season (or the 34 games last season) but for the first time in a while there's a bit of hope across the fanbase.  It was a massive win for this club and its fans.

Lets get through that first half though.  It was rough for 30 minutes and not great for the last 15.  We spent more of the first 10 minutes down a man than at full strength due to aa momentary injury to Larraz and a more serious one to Ronan.  One that would force him to be subbed out in the 11th minute for Löffelsend.  For the next 20+ minutes FSL had their run of the game, including a goal in the 20th minute that came right through Löffelsend.  To be fair to Jasper, Mihailovic sent him a ball with no options, at all four cardinal points the closest player was in FSL red.  After the turnover Maxsø seems to have lost track of his man and didn't know he was on his back shoulder, which made the finish from the cross easy.

Colorado slowly worked themselves back into the game and got a lucky break in the 41st minute with a handball in the box by FSL.  Navarro finished the PK (though it looked like Bassett wanted it originally) and the Rapids were a bit lucky to go into the locker room tied at half.  Whatever Armas said or did in their worked, because Colorado was much more focused and aggressive in the next 45.  Bassett finally got on the board in the 70th minute with the Rapids' first goal from open play this season (corner, own goal, PK for the others) and the team managed a combination of good defense and luck to ride out the win.

Other Thoughts:

• I'll admit, 30 minutes in I thought we were looking at another disaster in Sandy and what was likely a lost Rocky Mountain Cup and a cusp of a lost season.  The 2022 and 2023 Rapids would have lost this game.
• FSL was bombing down our left side at will in the first half.  I don't know if the tactics we were playing were pulling Vines out of position or if there was confusion but it was not a good look for Sam.
• Despite being a better team in the second half FSL still had the majority of possession in every 5 minute interval in the half.  That's not a combination that normally leads to a shutout.
• Löffelsend had a rough night and showed why Larraz has been starting the first three games.  He got better as the night went on, though.
• At the end of this one the Rapids were doing to FSL what they normally due to us.  Frustrating them, killing the clock, and working the refs.  Fun to be on the better side of that for the first time in a while.
• Bassett had a great game.  It was a classic Goal Bassett goal where he sets up the initial shot and continues his run into the box to be available for a second chance.  It was also his 100th appearance with the club.
• Good to see Navarro get on the scoresheet.  Only a penalty, but maybe its the jump-start he needs.
• Fernandez got his first start and while he didn't seem to be as involved as you would expect, he popped up at opportune moments to make a play.
• Mihailovic though, still needs to be providing more to justify his DP status & salary.
• There are two more game sin this year's Rocky Mountain Cup,  One in Sandy on Volcano Day (May 18th) and back here in Commerce City on the 55th anniversary of the lunar landing.  Appropriate since this game was on my birthday.  One win or two draws and the Cup is ours.

Man of the Match: Moise Bombito.  I said I'd bring this back when the team changed, and they changed.  A lot of that was due to Bombito's steady play on the back line.  He's gone from college to a Canadian Nat and a MLS starter in a little over a season.

Rocky Mountain Cup 2024

Well, here we are.  Nobody needs to explain what's on the line tomorrow in Sandy.  The first of three games in the 2024 Rocky Mountain Cup and a Rapids team still looking for their first road win since May 6th of last year (at the Galaxy).  We haven't beat FSL since August 21st 2021, and have only won at Questionably Racist Name Field once, the 5-0 shellacking we gave them in 2020 to win the Cup.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7:30pm, and Apple TV is giving us Keith Costigan and Maurice Edu on the call.  If you know Spanish, or just prefer to listen to somebody you know understands this rivalry even if you don't, Jorge Perez-Navarro and our own Marcelo Balboa will have the call.

Player Availability

OUT: Kimani Stewart-Baynes (illness)

At least this year our injury reports have been short.  Everyone likely to be picked is once again available for Armas tomorrow night.  FSL has multiple people missing due to injury, including having just lost key midfielder Pablo Ruiz for the season.

I haven't seen anything to suggest Armas is going to make a lineup change, so I assume we're going to see the same XI from the first two matches.

Prediction: 1-0 loss.  Given our long track record its hard to see anything but a loss coming out of this one.  Maybe we surprise and get a 1-1 or 0-0 draw but that's best case.  And if FSL gets 2 its over.

Ha Det Marko Ilic

The Rapids made the long-rumored loan of Marko Ilic to Sarpsborg 08 in Norway official today.  Ilic and Sarpsborg announced it earlier.  The loan is through July 17th but even if he doesn't stick there I don't expect to ever see him in a Rapids kit again.  Steffen is the clear starter and Beaudry is the heir apparent, there's just no future for Marko in Colorado.

Thus ends (probably) one of the worst transfer decisions in recent years, not just for the Rapids but for MLs as a whole.  Colorado went out and pursued signing an international keeper while having a quality MLS keeper already under contract.  They then paid a transfer fee that was a top 3 amount in club history at the time, while upsetting their current starter.  Ilic proceeded to then put up some of the worst advanced stats i for keepers in MLS last season (he was 65th by some measures).  Yarbrough and the Rapids clearly had to move on in the offseason, and we had to solve a keeping problem of our own making, leading to the signing of Steffen. 

This is up there with the likes of Stefan Aigner, Juan Ramirez, Daniel Amokachi, and Giles Gramindi in all-time bad signings by Colorado.  And unlike those other signings who were trying to fill a hole the team had, this was completely self-inflicted.

Combine Ilic with Gersbach, Tavares, and arguably Navarro and Maxso, and last year's scouting is an absolute disaster.  Ronan is the only player who is saving it from being a complte wash.  (Navarro and particularly Maxso still have time to come around, but so far they haven't lived up to their price tags)

A New Day At KSE...Aw, Never Mind

Last month long-time KSE leader Matt Hutchings, who was essentially Padraig Smith's boss (there may be another layer or two in there, but he was the last stop before Stan/Josh) stepped down from his position as Chief Operating Officer.  He was responsible for all of Kroenke's sports teams in the KSE organization, including the Rapids.  Today KSE announced that Los Angeles Rams President Kevin Demoff was name President of of TEam and Media Operations for KSE, taking over responsibility for Kroenke's 5 sports teams (Rams, Avs, Nuggets, Mammoth, and the Rapids).

When I heard this I thought this might be an opportunity for KSE to take a new start with the Rapids and the fan base.  While I don't expect big changes it would be a chance for Demoff to make a statement, or have a press conference, or send a letter saying something to the effect of "I know that its been a turbulent time in Commerce City.  As the new person in this role I plan to dedicate some time to understanding the issues, etc.".  Again, that doesn't mean there would be changes but it would be an opportunity for everyone to reset and give it a new shot.

Well, that didn't last long.  Demoff was asked about the Rapids in his opening press conference today.  Here's the relevant bit as transcribed by Jake Shapiro of DenverSports.com.

You all remember those marches to the match that we've actually never done, unless you mean crossing the street from the tailgate to the entry gate en masse right?  And we didn't even do anything like that on Saturday at the home opener he apparently attended.  We tailgated up a storm, like we always do, and if he had come out to check that out he would have known that.  He could have just wandered in as another fan and I guarantee you nobody would have known who he was and bothered him.  

Also, what is this "activated around Commerce City"?  The lack of local outreach was one of the things called out by Centennial 38 in their public letter last fall.  Now I will admit that the Rapids have made some strides in that area since then, particularly engaging with youth programs as part of the new kit program, but its probably too early to judge them a success or not.

This was a chance to turn the page and write a new chapter, but instead KSE stumbled out of the starting blocks (to mix metaphors) and fell on their face.  I can't think of a way to come off more inauthentically than to talk about being at the home opener and then refer to fan activities that didn't occur (and have never really occurred).  If Demoff was at the Dick on Saturday, he clearly never got out of the President's suite above the west stands to see what the real fan experience is.  Once again its clear the Rapids are the unwanted child in KSE's empire.

Lewis Hands a Draw To Nashville

The story of the Rapids this season is much like 2023.  No ability to score.  The play is probably technically better, but if you can't put the ball in the net it doesn't matter.  On Saturday they had 2 shots on goal and a 0.7 xG.  Our three DP's (Cabral, Navarro, and DM) have a combined 0.16 xG this year.  Fernandez, who played 26 minutes on Saturday, has 0.22 himself.

This is, simply, unacceptable for a team that had this problem last year and made major changes in the offseason.  We clearly haven't fixed the core problem from last year, scoring.  That would come back to bite us in this one, with the only goal being a stunning well-taken header by Shaq Moore (one of the few players who's shirt I have, from when he played for Tenerife) into his own goal.  The Rapids had the lead for most of the second half but it didn't feel earned.

Jonathan Lewis would make sure we didn't get those undeserved points with  a blatant handball in the box that was picked up by VAR.  Nashville converted the PK in the 90th minute and the teams ended level at 1-1, which was deserved based on the play.  Neither team looked good.

Other than that the match was fairly unremarkable.  The two most notable moments were both in front of C38.  In the first half Mosie Bombito cleared a ball at the post that I think he only half knew about and then turned to C38 and got us going with was a fun reaction from a Rapids player.  Leaning into that would be good for this team.  Then late in the match Yapi came on for a ineffective Navarro.  He was chasing a loose ball near the other post and the Nashville defender just beat him to it.  It looked clean live from our POV but the scab ref gave a yellow, which resulted in a chant of "scab! scab! scab!'.  Turns out on replay Yapi might have gotten lucky.  He solidly got the defender's ankle, to the point where you can see it bending away from the contact. It could have easily been a red card out of context, but a lose ball on the post means both guys are diving in and the ref probably decided yellow was the more reasonable call.

If the Rapids can't beat a Nashville team coming off a midweek game, at altitude, without their two best DPs then you have to wonder who they can beat.  They're off to Sandy and Seattle the next two weeks, two places that have been very bad to them historically and two teams that look much better than them.  Houston at home after that, maybe?  Then LAFC at home, probably not.  We could be looking up at a big mountain very quickly.

No Man of the Match until they show they have actually improved.

For Joan

For those fans who didn't know Joan Dobrzynksi she was a wonderful woman who became somewhat of a 'team mom' over the years.  She was a regular at training for the Rapids over the last 10+ years and was always in her seat in 108 for the game.  For a number of years when I sat in 108 I had a seat first right in front of her and then nearby.  Joan battled leukemia for the last couple of years and wasn't able to see her Rapids as often, but the team hooked her up with a tablet and Season Pass so she wouldn't miss any of the action.  She passed away in January.  At today's home opener she will be remembered both by the team and her friends in the stands.  Her seat will be left empty this season and in the 38th minute C38 will be raising an overhead tifo in her honor.

The Rapids are back home for the start of the 2024 season, and the former-Rapids coaching staff of Nashville SC, namely Gary Smith, Kosuke Kimura, Steve, Guppy, and Matt Pickens are the opposition.  Nashville has had a busy start to the season with their CONCACAF Champions Cup play,  They rolled through their opposition from the Dominican Republic, 7-0, but their season opener against RBNY was a scoreless draw.  The season kickoff at the Dick is at 7:30, with the undefeated tailgate starting around 4.

Player Availability

QUESTIONABLE: M Ralph Priso (hamstring)

Kimani Stewart-Baynes played for the Canada U-20s on Tuesday night so his availability may be limited, but I wouldn't expect him to be in the gameday roster yet anyway.  For that matter, i wouldn't expect Priso to be in uniform either even if he was healthy, so Armas can have his pick of the roster.

I think we see almost the same XI from last week.  Its too soon to bench Bombito and other than that the only questions are right mid and the 6.  Everyone else is pretty much locked in.  Harris gets rewarded for his goal with another start, but Larraz takes a seat to let Löffelsend get his shot before Diack is ready.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Mihailovic.  I can't predict a win from this team until they show something, but Nashville is tired having a lot of games in their legs.  I think its a rather drab affair but the Rapids actually get one fairly early, give the lead back, and then Nashville sits in a low block and accepts the draw and Colorado continues to be unable to break that down.

Open Cup and Player News

For the second Friday in a row there's notable news from the Rapids that will delay my game preview.  First, lets start with the elephant in the room.

The Rapids first team will not be playing in the U.S. Open Cup this season.  If you haven't been following the drama around the USOC in the offseason MLS informed the U.S. Soccer Federation that they were withdrawing their teams from the Open Cup and replacing them with their MLS Next Pro teams (Rapids 2 and the rest).  The USSF said no.  Under the certification for the league granted by the USSF (and FIFA) they are required to participate in the USOC.  At first we thought that was that, but a couple of weeks ago it came out that MLS was still negotiating with the USSF.  The final decision came down today.  The teams playing in the CONCACAF Champions League will not play in the USOC.  The next best 8 teams in the 2023 standings will send their first teams (including defending champion Houston) to enter in the 4th round.  The rest will send their MLS Next Pro teams entering in the 1st round.  (DC doesn't have a MLS Next Pro team, so they won't be participating either)

This, to put it frankly, is hot garbage from the league.  They are claiming schedule congestion as a primary reason but in the end it comes down to money.  MLS and even USL teams largely lose money on this tournament.  Now that shouldn't be ignored, but the answer isn't withdrawal.  Its fair for MLS to say "hey, you have to run this tournament well enough that we're not taking a notable loss playing in it", but at the same time, MLS can afford to lose a little bit playing in the tournament for the good of the game.  Taking the ball and going home because you can make more money with the Leagues Cup is a horrible move.

When it comes to the Rapids, multiple outlets have reported that they were unhappy with the initial decision to leave the USOC and, presumably, are equally unhappy with the league's decision that only RapiDos will play in the competition.  For once the club is on the right side of something like this.  The roster rules for the Open Cup this season have not been published but we know that Rapids 1 players can be loaned to Rapids 2 on short-term deals.  It will be interesting to see if some first-team players end up playing for R2 during the Open Cup, especially if they progress to the point where they're playing USL Championship teams or the MLS first teams in the competition.

On to player news.  Tom Bogert is reporting tonight that there's a deal being made to send Marko Ilic on loan to Norwegian club Sarpsborg   When he didn't show up on the bench last Saturday I wondered if the club was trying to move him.  He's an expensive player to just be playing backup and with Steffen here (and Beaudry looking like the long-term future) that's all he would be.  I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see him in Colorado again.

Needless to say, this was a top-tier bad moves by the Rapids.  Having Yarbrough, Rodriguez, and Beaudry waiting in the wings they went out and spent time scouting a new goalkeeper, then paid a top 3 transfer fee in club history (at the time) to bring him in, only to find out he put up some of the worst advanced stats by keepers in MLS last season.  They then had to go out and sign Steffen to fill the hole they created (since Yarbrough had no willingness to stay after that move).  In a year plus one game we went from Yarbrough-Irwin-Rodriguez to Steffen-Beaudry-???.  Stability that is not.  A graduate-level class on how not to build a position.

The final bit of news is the Rapids 2 announced the extension of midfielder Daouda Amadou's contract for 2024 and 2025, but the interesting part is that he's guaranteed a first-team roster spot in 2025.  The club also has option years for 2026-28.  Amadou was a big part of the success of Rapids 2 last season, but as we've seen with Remi Cabral and Yosuke Hanya, the next step is generally a year in the Championship before moving to regular first team play.  We'll see if he goes on loan this season, or if he joins the first team next year and what he's able to contribute.