Crow Eaten, FO Deserves Kudos

17 days ago when Djordje Mihailovic was sold I went off on the Front Office.  Well, my predictions for the immediate future of this team were wrong.  Its only fair I return to take my lumps and to give the Front Office the plaudits they deserve now that the window has closed (still open for 90 minutes as I write this but its clear they're done).

In this window the Rapids sold Awaziem and Mihailovic, two starters, for a smidge under $9M.  (Djordje gets 10% of any inter-league sale so the $8M they got for him is actually $800K to Djordje and $7.2M to the club).  They then turned around and dropped $8.1M+ on Paxten Aaronson to replace Mihailovic and brought in Rob Holding on a free to replace Awaziem.  On top of that they brought in CB Noah Cobb and W Alexis Manyoma on loan-to-buy deals, traded for LB Rafael Santos, and got the long-rumored CB Lucas Herrington over the line for next season (his contract starts in January).

By the standards of the Rapids that's a great summer transfer window.  Compare that to summer of 2022 when we traded Mark-Anthony Kaye to Toronto to open the window and Smith promised an active window, only for the sole move to be signing Felipe Gutierrez on a short-term loan.  Even by overall MLS standards this is a good window, especially for a team with the reputation in the league Colorado has.

Combine that with the fact that since Djordje was traded the team has won both league games and forced Cruz Azul to penalties without him (they lost to Tijuana without him, but that was the day before the sale was announced).  That includes a big win in Minnesota and has put them in a solid place for a playoff run with 4 games against teams below them in the standings followed by two tough home games sandwiched around our annual trip to Sandy.  The vibes are suddenly much better in Commerce City than they were 2.5 weeks ago.

Breaking down my initial feedback on the players:

Aaronson - Obviously the big move of the window.  A 7 million Euro/8.1 million dollar deal with 1.5 Euros of add-ons.  Smashing the transfer record for the team, doubling what they paid for Navarro when you include the loan fee.  Plus signing him to a 5-year DP contract through 2030, the 21 year old midfielder will be the cornerstone of the this team for the next few years, unless he plays well enough to go back to Europe and make the Rapids some money.  IMO Aaronson has a higher ceiling than Mihailovic did, but he's more raw and has a lower floor (at least at the moment).  We're going to need to bring him along with deliberate moves that build a team to support what he does well.  He's certainly going to turn this team even more into a high press.

Alongside what the player can do, the Front Office going out and making this move after the Mihailovic move sends a statement to the fans.  Reports tonight were that the Aaronson deal only started once Djordje was sold, he wasn't initially on the radar this window.  Never have we seen Smith and Taylor move this fast for this type of signing.  Is it a one off?  I don't know, but it was a sorely needed move to convince the fan base (including myself) it wasn't going to be the same old same old from this club.  Many national writers are suggesting this could be the dawn of a new era of the Rapids but I'm not going that far yet.

Holding - An interesting signing that you have to think the Arsenal relationship played into.  After leaving Kroenke's other club Holding went to Palace where he had an immediate falling out with the manager along with injuries.  If he can overcome those and buy into what Armas is doing we might have a PL center back for 1.5 years.  At 31 I expect this to be a one and done contract to get us over the hump to when our other new CB's are ready to take over as starters.  Holding finally has his visa and will be available in LA this weekend.

Cobb - The one new addition we've actually seen play so far, and he's looked good in the 3-back system we're using.  Atlanta fans are pretty upset that they could lose him and if he keeps playing like this I have to assume we'll exercise the option to buy.  I'm not yet ready to anoint him a 2026 starter but he looks like at worst a good 3rd CB for the team.

Manyoma - This biggest question mark of our signings.  A 22 year old (older than Aaronson!) Colombian winger that has a good pedigree coming from Estuidiantes and the Colombian U20s, but without the stats to back it up. When he looked to be our big signing with a possible DP label there was some concern, but as a U-22 and on a loan to buy option I'm willing to give it some time.  No report if his visa is in so he can be available this weekend.

Santos - A regular starter at LB for Orlando the last two years he's found himself on the bench this season as formation changes and other signings had him not as high in the pecking order.  Hopefully he's able to solidify the position in a way we haven't seen since Vines left for Europe.  At worse he can be a stalking horse for Vines or Travis to step up and lock down the position themselves.  A lot will depend on if we continue with the 3 CB/2 wingback formation or revert to the more traditional back 4 that would likely suit Santos more than Vines.

Herrington - Colorado had been linked with the Australian youth international this past offseason and were just waiting for his contract at Brisbane Roar to run down.  Reports are that Roar got a club-record fee for him, and their prior record was about $650K so assume we paid at most $1M and probably less.  At 18 he's clearly not going to be a starter next February, but i expect him to be an option off the bench while maybe playing with Rapids 2 a bit.

One roster note, Josh Atencio has been bought down from a U-22 player, which allows us to stick with 3 DPs (Navarro, Aaronson, and the currently unsigned Cabral) and 3 U-22 players (Bassett, KDP, and Manyoma).  Reports are that Cabral is expected to sign soon which would free up his DP slot, but the Rapids had to be roster compliant to sign Aaronson, so thus the need to buy down Atencio with GAM.

If I'm picky around the edges there are a couple things that weren't perfect about this window.  We still need a backup striker, the visas are taking far too long (Son got his in two days), etc.  So I might call this window an A-.  But its the strongest Rapids summer window we've seen in a long time, maybe ever.  So once again, kudos to the Front Office.  I will enjoy my crow sandwich the rest of the season.

Still Here

Just so I don't lose all my readers this blog isn't dead, despite my last post.  I needed a week or so and I fully intended to write something this week but a VERY busy week of work, some personal stuff like my wife and I doing a John le Carre adaptation marathon recently, and now not feeling great tonight has kept me from actually sitting down and writing as planned this week.  At this point I'll probably just wait until the window closes on Thursday and do a wrap-up/state of the team post Thursday night or Friday.

In general I don't expect to be doing regular game previews/reviews the rest of the season.  More general coverage of the team, where we're at, and what I think needs to happen if we want to be more than "making up the numbers" in this league going forward.

Rapids Sell Mihailović, Punt 2025 (and 2026?).

I don't know.  This might be it for me.  I'm not sure its worth it anymore.

Tonight was going to be a quick recap of the Tijuana loss last night.  I even said on socials yesterday that:

Tonight's game showed what we all know.  This team has questionable depth at best and unless all the starters are clicking they are completely reliant on Mihalovic to do anything in the attack.  This team suffers not due to coaching but due to stunningly terrible roster construction.

The reason Djordje missed the game was reported as 'personal reasons' and today we found out what those reasons were.  He asked out and the Rapids are selling him to Toronto for $8 million in cash, plus another million in possible peformance add-ons, and keeping a sell-on percentage.  This has been confirmed by multiple local and national outlets, but Bogert had it first.

Further information from Burgundy Wave suggests that Djordje was unhappy with the team ambition and wanted a bigger contract.  Right off the bat the CBA calls for players to get 10% of any sale price fir intra-league sales so he's going to make $800K on the sale and reports are that he is already in talks with Toronto for a contract extension.  Toronto reportedly made two offers the team turned down before Djordje went to the Front Office and asked them to accept an offer.  They tried multiple times to talk him out of it but his decision was made.

I spent most of the day seething over this.  I am a bit mad at Mihailovic for forcing this midseason but most of my anger is reserved for the Front Office who once again has fumbled the ball and in a bigger way than perhaps ever before.  DM is, arguably, the best on-field signing this club has ever made.  Certainly as a straight signing (Balboa was a MLS league start signing and Pablo came out of the expansion draft, Valderrama was a trade) and we just let him go for the same price we got for Bombito last year.  A kid that got 25 pro starts before being sold and who's only 17 months younger than Djordje.

But the amount really doesn't matter.  What the problem is is once again the Front Office has overpromised, underdelivered, and refuses to substantially make any changes to how they're running the team.  They're happy to be MLS's junk drawer where the excess players that nobody wants but are too valuable to just cut goes, and then when there becomes a need for that player the league (or others) opens the drawer and pulls it out to use and the Rapids are left holding the bag.

This is now Awaziem and Mihailovic that have asked out in the last month, and there's a rumor that Fernandez was disgruntled earlier this season which may have led to the trade to Portland.  Clearly something is rotten in Commerce City.

Let me put it plainly:

Padraig Smith and Fran Taylor need to make a public statement this week about what's going on and what the plan is.  And not one couched in marketing speak but a genuine "yeah, this isn't great, we screwed up, but here's what we're doing" explanation.

The Rapids have 9 games left this season (plus playing out the string with Cruz Azul on Thursday).  Without our main offensive engine I think its safe to say we can write off the two Minnesota games and the LAFC game.  And given how things usually go in Sandy we can kiss that game and the RMC goodbye.  That leaves 5 games against Atlanta, Galaxy, SKC, Houston, and Dallas.  We likely need 12-13 points in those games just to make the playoffs.  I don't see how we get there unless Smith pulls a rabbit out of his hat the likes of which we've never seen in this window.

So that puts us into 2026.  Between the Bombito, Awaziem, and Mihailovic sales, and subtracting out the money we used to get Awazioem and Atencio, plus a bit for Cinci's take on the Awaziem deal, we're looking at a kitty of something around $14M-$14.5M the club should have to rebuild (again).  Oh and they have to decide if they're brining Armas back (and he has to decide if he wants to come back).

With that money they need, at minimum, two MLS caliber starting center backs (since Maxso is almost certainly gone), a better left back, an offensive engine, probably a winger upgrade, and a whiole lot fo depth.  Braidon Nourse at the Post is already hearing that the plan is to spend the Djordje money on 3-4 different players.  Breaking $7.2M down three to four ways means we're looking at spending less than $2M a player on average, which sure looks like Smith's failed "buy kids with "potential" and hope they come good" strategy as opposed to buying a couple of guys that can help us win now.

At this point, why should any of us bother being fans?  Its clear winning is not important to this organization.  They want to develop players, make some money, and repeat.  If they get lucky every 3-4 seasons and make a decent Cup or playoff run, that's gravy.  But they're never really going to compete in this league despite what Smith and his "Rapids Way" might claim.

I don't know.  I might be done.  Certainly there will be no Cruz Azul coverage, we'll see if I have anything for Minnesota on Sunday, or the rest of the season.

5 In A Row, A 6th Might Be Worth It?

In my preview of the Santos game I stated that the Rapids should not focus on this competition.  I still don't know that they should but the results over the last three nights have certainly made it a tougher decision.

Obviously the biggest one from Colorado's POV was their comeback win over the Mexican bottom-dwellers, with Navarro getting 2 goals in the second half.  This is a game that could have been 5-1 Rapids at times, we just couldn't finish (heard that before).  The regulars all got the start so some rotation will likely be needed tomorrow night.

The other results on Thursday were significant.  The Galaxy beat Tijuana by 3 and the Sounders curb-stomped Cruz Auzl with 7 goals in the second half.  The Montreal and Miami failed to win over the last tow nights (though Miami did win its shootout).

What that means is that only 6 MLS teams can now get to 9 points, meanwhile on the Liga MX side 4 teams are already at least 5 points (one at 6) with a positive goal differential and one can still get there.  This means that with just a shootout loss in their next game they almost certainly finish ahead of Cruz Azul and likely Tijuana.  Possibly Santos too.

So the Rapids are now looking at playing two all-but-eliminated Liga MX teams (possibly officially eliminated by the time they play Cruz Azul) while being in a position to be one of only 6 MLS teams to make it to 6 points after two games.  Portland is currently up a goal and a man with 30 minutes to play so they look likely to be the first, but Minnesota was in the same position earlier this evening and blew it.  Cinci and RBNY have a chance tomorrow as well.

The drawback though is that the other two teams that can do it are Seattle and the Galaxy, the other teams in Colorado's pod, facing  the same group of all-but eliminated Liga MX teams.  You would expect that if Colorado gets there, they will too (certainly Seattle would be expected to, especially with Santos down their keeper) and with a better GD thanks to their first games.

So its time for Armas to make a big decision.  Do we risk our game in Minnesota by playing the starters tomorrow night and/or on Thursday to grab one of those 4 slots?  Do we rotate some tomorrow, hope to get the win, then look at the lay of the land and make a decision on Thursday?  Or do we focus on the playoff run and plan for the reserves to get most of the next two games?

Its a harder decision for me now than it was on Wednesday.  The games are, mostly, breaking in Colorado's favor.  If push comes to shove though I think the playoffs are more important.  There's a week between now and the Minnesota game, play a mix of starters who feel rested and backups tomorrow and see where things land come Thursday.

Man of the Match: Rafael Navarro.  2 goals, easy decision.