Superdraft Results and Messi Game Moved

As expected there were a couple of trades with today's Superdraft and a last-minute wrinkle impacting our first pick.  With that first pick the Rapids selected forward Mamadou Billo Diop from...Rapids 2.  Yeah, strange.  It turns out sometime in the last few days another MLS team found a loophole in the rules that due to the fact that Diop went to high school in Florida but did not enroll in college he matches a precedent that he has to go through the draft.  Because he came to R2 from Florida and is not a homegrown the only way the Rapids could keep a player already under contract was to draft him, and they didn't want to risk him falling any further.

After that we selected forward Mitchell Baker out of Georgetown at #10.  Mark Kelkenberg expected him to go in the 20's and says:

Young complete center forward with a big frame. Took over for Jacob Murrell and recently had a 14 goal season for the Hoyas. Attended Northwood School/Black Rock FC where he had a lot of success prior to college

At this point the Rapids traded the 19th pick to SKC for $50K in 2026 GAM and the #44 pick.

At number 26 they took forward Wahabu Musah out of Clemson.  Yes, three forwards in a row.  Again from Kelkenberg who had him at 35 overall:

Musah could go earlier based on being the youngest player in the draft, so if he wound up available, I’d be surprised if they passed on him. He has shown great ability at Clemson already, and it’s rare that he played two collegiate seasons before his 18th birthday, which was earlier this month.

In the second round the Rapids traded the 40th ant 44th picks to Dallas for $75K in GAM.  All told they traded a 2025 international slot and the #44 pick and got back $325K in GAM, when you consider the #19 pick came as part of that international slot trade that also got $200K in GAM.  Nice funny-money business, but we'll see what they spend it on.

At #56 was my favorite pick of the draft, defender Asher Hestad from the National Champion Washington Huskies (Go Dawgs!).  We are now far enough down that I haven't found any MLS writeups on these players but Hestad did start at right back for every game in the Huskies run in the NCAA tournament.

In the 3rd round the Rapids took midfielder Koven Johnson out of High Point at #70 and defender Jabari De Coteau out of Xavier at #86.

One interesting note is that De Coteau is a junior and all of our other picks (other than Diop obviously) are sophomores.  So any of them could decide to return to school and the Rapids would hold their rights for two seasons.  So we'll have to see how many of these players actually show up in camp next month.  I would bet Baker will, he is the highest rated of the group and would be expected to be able to contribute at the MLS level in the near future.  The rest might stay in college.  I think beyond Musah anyone else is a long shot right now, as much as I would like to see Hestad have a bit impact.

After the busy Superdraft day the Rapids made a significant announcement.  The April 18th, 2026 game against Miami will be played at Empower Field in downtown Denver and not at the Dick.  This will be the game where the Rapids celebrate their 20th anniversary by returning to where it all began (almost).  On April 21st, 1996 the Rapids played their first ever home game at old Mile High, which was situated in what is now the parking lot of Empower Field.

Season ticket holders will be moved to to seats with similar sight lines in the lower bowl at Empower.  No word yet on parking, tailgating, or the supporters section.  Centennial 38 has a meeting with the Front Office next week to discuss those things, including where C38 season ticket holders in the supporters sections will end up, so more information should be available after the holidays.  Remaining tickets after the season ticket and flex pack holders are covered will be put on sale on January 15th.

Honestly, I hate this.  They can couch this in the terms of "celebrating are origin" as much as they want but we all see this for what this is.  A cash grab with Messi.  Its a betrayal of long-time fans who have worked hard, sometimes with no support or even active opposition from the Front Office, to make the Dick our home.  This is even the 20th season in the Dick and we could be celebrating that, but instead the FO is going for the quick buck and giving away what home field advantage we have so they can get all the Messi fans in the stadium.  My hope is that they announce the week before the game that he's not coming.

This is another log on the fire of disrespect I'm feeling from the Rapids and the league this offseason but honestly its been a long few months for me professionally (in a good way) and I'm pretty fried and I know that's probably driving my reactions lately.  So I'm going to take a couple of weeks off, see family, play some video games and watch bowl games and the African Cup of Nations, and see how I'm feeling come the New Year.  If I still feel this way then I'll write something up about how (IMO) the fans are being treat.  If not then it will be good I cleared my head.  Baring significant news tomorrow (like announcing Wells as coach or the trade for Sealy) this will do it at least until after Christmas and possibly 2025.

I hope everyone has a a happy holiday season and a great New Years!

Superdraft Preview

All quiet in Commerce City.  No official coach announcement yet.  Rumor of a significant trade for Dante Sealy from Montreal.  I'm waiting for it to be official to get too much into it, but the reported $2M of GAM we're trading is a significant overpay if its accurate.

One thing I never commented on here was that we did exercise the purchase option for Noah Cobb.  I have mentioned that this was something I was in favor of so I'm glad it got done.

The Re-Entry Drafts came and went with the Rapids doing nothing, so its on to tomorrow's Superdraft.  Colorado has 8 picks in the 3 rounds, including 4 first round picks.  We have Toronto's pick at #6 in exchange for us allowing Toronto to hire Neil Emblem to join Robin's staff in Toronto.  e have our natural pick at #10.  We have Columbus' pick at #18 in exchange for an international slot in 2025, and we have Philly's pick at #26 (along with #56 and #86) due to the trade of GAM for all their draft picks in 2025, 2026, and 2027.  In addition to Philly's picks in the 2nd and 3rd round we have our natural picks at #40 and #70.

The reality is with all those picks we'll be very lucky if we get tow players who contribute in the next couple of seasons.  The player who would likely be the top pick, Grand Canyon University striker Junior Diouf, is a freshman and would only be eligible with a GA contract.  Today there were 4 GA contracts announced and he wasn't one of them.  There was also a senior contract announced (a senior who's signed with the league pre-draft) and its my personal favorite pick in the draft, Washington midfielder/striker Richie Aman.  I'd love to see him drop to 6 and have Colorado take him, but I have my doubts.

Anything more I could tell you about the picks is better summarized by American Soccer Analysis' great Superdraft writeup.  Work will probably prevent me from doing any live updating tomorrow but I will have a recap of whatever happens, which will probably involve Smith trading picks, tomorrow night.

We Have A Coach!

First reported by Tom Bogert and confirmed by many the Rapids will name Tottenham Hotspur assistant coach Matt Wells as the team's 11th official head coach sometime next week.

Wells is a name out of left field, but to be fair with the lack of rumors anyone outside of the league would be out of left field.  Most Rapids fans spent the day researching what they could find on him and asking friends who were Spurs fans or Tottenham social media accounts what we're getting.

What we do know is that Wells is a 37 year old born and raised North Londoner who played in the Spurs academy before injuries derailed any hope of a senior career.  He then moved over to the coaching side at Spurs Academy, as an assistant eventually leaving to follow Academy coach Scott Parker as he took over Fulham's first-team and continued with him to Bournemouth and Clube Brugge.  He returned to Spurs under Postecoglou for the 2023-24 season and became the senior assistant to Ange last season, before stepping back down to assistant under Thomas Frank this season.

Postecoglou is known for giving his assistants a lot of responsibility and Wells is credited the game plan that Spurs used to win the Europa League final last season.  Under Postcoglou and Wells, and continuing to this season, Tottenham has been playing with a strong defense and this year in particular going with a counterpressing strategy.  Not exactly Pablo-ball boring but certainly a more defensive focus than what Armas brought the last two seasons.  Of course we don't know what Wells will use when he's the one calling all the shots.

With what little we know right now this seems like a middling hire with more potential to be an improvement from Armas than a step back IMO.  I do like that we didn't go for another unsuccessful MLS retread or elevated Bushey.  I don't like that, yet again, we're hiring somebody without successful first-team club head coaching experience.  It has been 25 years (arguably just 20) since the Rapids have done that and maybe its time to try it?

Chris Armas - took over a RBNY team and runined it, lasted less than a season in Toronto

Robin Fraser - Failed at Chivas USA

Anthony Hudson - Never had a first-team club job, only international experience

Pablo Mastroeni - First coaching job

Oscar Pareja - First head coaching job

Gary Smith - Only youth experience

Fernando Claivjo - Did take the Revs to 2nd in the East but lost in the playoffs

Tim Hankinson - Did succeed and make the semi-finals with the Charleston Battery

The reality is that with Padraig Smith still making the decisions on player recruitment its hard to get to excited about an unknown hire.  Its going to take significant upgrades in the roster to make this team competitive.  If Wells is successful he's likely back to England with a better first-team job in 2-3 years.  If Wells is unsuccessful he'll become the next in line of a list of failed hires by KSE.  I do not expect Wells to be coaching this team by the time the 2030 World Cup rolls around.

Rapids Announce Year End Roster Decisions

Colorado announced their player decisions today.

Options exercised: Nico Hansen, Jackson Travis, Darren Yapi

Options declined: Daouda Amadou, Sam Bassett, Michael Edwards, Nate Jones, Andreas Maxsø, Rafael Santos

Free agents: Calvin Harris, Oliver Larraz

The option to purchase Noah Cobb has to be exercised by December 15th.

The Rapids are negotiating new contracts with Amadou, Harris, Larraz, and Santos.  Bassett, Edwards, Jones, and Maxso will not be returning in 2026.

Looking back at my review of the upcoming decisions most of this was expected. The two ones I missed on were Santos and Bassett.

I was glad to see we are negotiating with Santos because letting him walk would be crazy.  Hw only started 5 games yet was our best left back of the season.  Either we want him back at a lower number, but he was only on $400K, or we're giving him a longer, better contract and by passing on his option we're smoothing out negotiations so he gets his raise right away instead in a mid-year negotiation.

While Sam Bassett didn't light the world on fire he was cheap and Cole clearly liked playing with his brother.  I figured those two factors would lead to him coming back next season.  You have to wonder if Sam and people in his orbit have decided he'll do better somewhere other than the Rapids.

Other than those two most of these were obvious or we didn't have enough information to evaluate.  I'm hoping Santos gets signed quickly and I would be fine with Larraz and Harris coming back for depth but its not a huge loss if they leave.  Amadou is a long-term project.  Hansen and Yapi were absolute no brainers to keep and Travis is good depth if we can't get Santos signed.

We did release three centerbacks today, leaving us Holding and Murphy as true centerbacks from this year, plus the incoming Herrington.  Cannon and Rosenberry can both play there if needed too.  I would expect we would exercise Cobb's purchase option given that, plus be looking for another starter/top sub in the offseason.  I don't think a back pair made up of Holding/Cobb/Murphy/Herrington is going to get it done over 34 games.

The next major date for the Rapids is Dec. 10th and 11th when free agency opens and then the first stage of the reentry draft.

Schedule Surprise!

Late this morning word started filtering out that MLS could announce some of the schedule details today.  Instead MLS announced the whole schedule, at a time much earlier than they ever have before. This is likely the first time we know next year's schedule before we know which of this year's players will have their options picked up.

Of course the big news in the Rapids schedule is that Inter Miami is finally coming to Colorado.  This is their seventh season so it gets harder and harder, from a competitive standpoint, for MLS to excuse why Miami has never been here but even with that I did not expect them to pass up the big bucks of sending the GOAT back to LA or Seattle or something.  April 18th Miami will be here.

Of course, where will here be?  There was nothing said about a change of venue in today's announcement but many fans think that the game will be moved from the Dick's Sporting Goods Park to Empower Field.  I, for one, hope it isn't.  The Rapids are celebrating not only their 30th anniversary this year but also 20 years in the Dick.  Since they made the move on April 7th, 2007 they have played every competitive home match there.  They didn't move games for Beckham.  They didn't move cold weather CCC games to a better venue.  They didn't play USOC home games at a smaller stadium.  The Dick is our home and we shouldn't give that up just to get 15K extra fans to show up, watch Messi, eave as soon as he's subbed off, and never think about the Rapids again.

The other question is, of course, will Messi travel/play.  The good news is that there are no competitive Argentina matches around that date.  The bad news is that if Miami makes the quarterfinals of the CCC their trip to Colorado comes right after the midweek second leg.  If that happens, I could see them not bringing Messi.  Its also the start of a three game week for Miami, they'll go from Colorado on Saturday to Utah on Wednesday before heading home to face the Revs, which would be followed by the first leg of the CCC semifinals.  If they're eliminated before the quarterfinals I would expect Messi to travel and play some (barring injury) but if they're in the quarters all bets are off with that schedule.

Now that we've dealt with the GOAT elephant in the room, on to the rest of the schedule.  We open in my hometown of Seattle on Sunday February 22nd i what will be the Sunday Night Soccer opening match.  We then come home and face another Cascadia team in our home opener the next Saturday in the Timbers.  Traditionally we do fairly well with the Timbers as our home debut.  Our first long road trip is March 14th through April 4th with 3 road games, including two of our three East Coast trips to NYCFC and TFC (Hi Djordje!).

That Miami match is the first game of our first 3-game week with trips to LAFC on Wednesday and Vancouver the following Saturday.  Our second three-game week starts May 9th when we host St. Louis and then we make a midweek trip to Minnesota before heading to the dark place for the first leg of the Rocky Mountain Cup on Memorial Day Saturday.  We then host Dallas a week later before a long World Cup break.

MLS restarts right after the World Cup final with the Rapids hosting San Diego on Wednesday, July 22nd.  There's a noticeable break in everyone's schedule the second week of August, which will presumably involve Leagues Cup.  That's also in the middle of our only run of 3 straight home games, with Austin on the 1st, SKC on the 15th, and LAFC midweek on the 19th (we pop over to San Diego to finish another 3-game week).  Then to finish August FSL comes through for the second half of the RMC.

Another week break and we're right back to a 3 game week as we go to Columbus, Austin and host Montreal.  October starts with another 3 game week after the International break with San Jose and Minnesota visiting before we go to Portland.  We get a midweek off and, stop me if you've heard this before, another three game week as host Vancouver, go to San Jose, and host Chicago in the home finale on Halloween.  Then we finish the season the next weekend in Dallas.

So we have 5 3-game weeks and a 2-game Wednesday/Saturday week coming out of the World Cup break.  Half our games are played with another league match within 3-4 days of it, instead of the "traditional" week on either side.  And that's before the USOC and Leagues Cup games are added.  Its tough to get a whole schedule in when you're taking June and most of July off.  Good thing its a once every 4 years thing...oh wait.

Other than that though the schedule actually stacks up fairly well.  No ridiculous trips where we play on the East Coast and then on the West Coast in 4 days or anything and no real long road trips or home stands.  One note is that the home opener in February and the Miami games are 2:30pm kickoffs and the home finale on Halloween is TBD.  The other 14 are the normal 7:30pm kicks.  

Unlike this year where the run in looked fairly brutal we finish @Portland, Vancouver @San Jose, Chicago, @Dallas.  You never know who's going to jump up in a given year but outside Vancouver those are teams roughly on our level right now.  Our toughest stretches are the 3-game Miami week (Miami, @LAFC, @Vancouver) and late August/early September (LAFC, @San Diego, FSL, @Columbus).

Massive Day Of MLS News

Well, just as I thought I was slowing down for a while MLS dropped a gigantic piece of news, a major piece of news, an important piece of news, and a minor piece of news today.  Taking them in that order, because the biggest one impacts all the others:

MLS is moving the season from a spring-to-fall schedule to a fall-to-spring schedule.  Lots to cover here:

• MLS will play the 2026 season as planned, with a gap for the World Cup
• MLS will then play a "sprint season" in the spring of 2027 where every team will play 14 games (just enough to play everyone in your conference once) followed by playoffs and MLS Cup
• They'll then break for the summer and start the new 2027-28 season in late-July/August
• The league will then run from late-July/August through early/mid-December, then take a break until either the first or third weekend of February (avoiding restarting the second weekend due to the Super Bowl)
• The regular season will continue through April, with playoffs and MLS Cup in May

And that will be the schedule going forward.  As part of the announcement MLS stated they still are following the principle of having teams play no more than 3 home or road games in a row but some of the statements from the individual teams after the news are suggesting cold weather teams (like the Rapids) could see their December and February games on the road every year.

Notably, but not surprisingly, Colorado's "statement" was just reposting the MLS announcement with no additional comments.

Those are the facts, as we know them.  My opinion of this is that this is being done incredibly poorly and will likely hurt a lot more than it helps in the short to medium term.

I've said for a while now that I can see how this might be better for the league as a whole (but I have my doubts).  But I'm absolutely sure this is going to crush half a dozen clubs and it will take at least 5 seasons for them to get back to where they are now.  And I don't think anyone who's being honest about the situation would really disagree with that.

Given that the fact that MLS is jamming this through, in less than 2 years, without even the union on-board, has me very nervous.,  Japan is making the same change and they've spent the last 3 years being very open about the change, talking to the teams, players, sponsors, and fans, to get everyone on board and rowing the same way.  They are carving out budget chunks to help the further northern teams to adapt.  They're offering deals to fans who will be impacted.  In other words they know that this will only be successful if everyone is bought in.

Here we get MLS just making a decision and expecting everyone to fall in line.  No effort at all to talk to the fans that will be impacted the most.  Apparently no care for the clubs that have to make major infrastructure investments.  The players haven't even agreed to the move according to reports today.

Given all that, why should I expect this to be a success for the heavily impacted teams?  Why should I think MLS values me as a fan?

I can go on more about this, and likely will in the future.  The scheduling problems alone, especially if they send teams out of market for 3 months at a time, are legion.  But we need to move on to other news for now.

MLS is changing the season format when the schedule changes

MLS will go to a single-table model but there will still be divisions.  The 30 teams will be split into five 6 team divisions based on geography.  Teams will play their 5 division rivals home and away (10 games) and everyone else in the league home or away (24 games) for a total of 34 games.  Division winners would automatically qualify for the playoffs, the other playoff teams would be determined by the single-table.

The division makeups have not been announced yet but the most common suggestions for the Rapids are the Cascadia Cup teams, San Jose, and the Rocky Mountain Cup teams or the RMC teams and the four Californian teams.

This is probably an improvement.  I like the idea of seeing every team every year.  As long as they keep FSL and Colorado together I don't have a strong opinion of who else we're grouped with.

MLS Ends Season Pass, Merges With Apple TV

Starting next season (2026) MLS Season Pass is going away.  Instead of a separate MLS-only subscription MLS games will now be under the Apple TV subscription (until recently Apple TV+ but Apple renamed it to Apple TV).  MLS season ticket holders will get a free Apple TV subscription instead of the MLS Season Pass subscription they have been receiving.

This is a good step, probably driven by the recent Formula 1 deal Apple signed that placed F1 coverage inside the Apple TV subscription instead of a separate F1 Season Pass.  At that point neither MLS or Apple could likely justify having a separate subscription.  This opens MLS up to Apple's reported 45 million subscribers world wide.  And MLS fans get to watch Slow Horses and Ted Lasso.  Win, win.

FIFA and CONCACAF agree that Canadian MLS teams can be considered domestic

This has essentially no impact on the Rapids but will help keep everything on a level playing field.  Up until now the Canadian teams were tied to the CSA's timing and rules around transfer windows and the like.  Now they'll be part of the USSF's rules around those areas.  That makes everything easier for the league.  A note, this does not change the domestic/international status of players.  That's driven by employment law in the the countries.

Well, that's plenty.  More to come as we find out more details of the season timing and structure changes.

Final Bow On 2025, Reviewing My Predictions

Ok, the last thing we need to do before moving on to the offseason decisions and 2026 is looking back at my predictions for this year.  This...will be painful.

• Its one series and done in the CCC.  Our track record at LAFC is very bad and I don't see that changing this early in the season.

Off to a good start, full points!

• Likewise the new Leagues Cup format puts us at a disadvantage and we don't progress.  In fact our chances are so unlikely that going into our final game against Cruz Azul in LA Armas pulls the rip cord and uses a heavily rotated roster to save legs for the run-in to the playoffs.

Wathuta, Sam Bassett, Alex Harris, Fredrick, and Travis started the Cruz Azul game.  Plus Nico Hansen.  I'm giving myself full credit here. 

• The Rapids do make the playoffs, but they host the wild-card game (8th overall).  They actually win the wild-card game before bowing out in the next round.

Missed the playoffs on the tiebreaker, missed 8th by 3 points.  I'm giving myself 0 for this one, much like the Rapids this year.

• Sadly they end up in the wild-card because the curse of Sandy bites us again and we lose the Rocky Mountain Cup in the next-to-last regular-season match (I'm half tempted to say we retain it after points & goals are tied, but I've seen this story too many times before).

I'm giving myself half a point for my dead-on accurate half temptation.

• At some point, either just before the window closes in May or when the window opens this summer, the Rapids make a move for a short-term backup striker.

Nope, Yapi came good this year and made this (somewhat) unnecessary.  That's going to burn me two ways.

• Mihailovic is once again named Player of the Year and makes a run at Valderrama's record of 16 assists in a season

Ah...no.  He still lead the team in assists with 7 despite being sold during Leagues Cup.  No points.

• Navarro is the Golden Boot but will not get to 16 to tie Rubio and Casey.

Got to 12, 3 more than Mihailovic and 4 more than Yapi.  Full point.

• Steffen, Mihailovic, and Bassett all get call-ups this year

We now know Mihailovic got a call-up in January but had to turn it down due to recovering from his injury.  And Steffen was called up in the summer.  I'm claiming half a point.

• This is the last year Yapi really features for this team.  He may still be on the roster in 2026 but as a deep bench option only.

The exact opposite, for the first time really Yapi showed he can be at least a solid bench option in MLS.  He will be back and will feature as a seconday striker.

• Atencio will be seen as the sneaky-good acquisition of this offseason, justifying the expense.

Nope.  I'm not sure there was a sneaky good acquisition this offseason.  Signing Santos midseason looks like the closest.

4 points out of 10.  That's an all-star batting average but not great for predictions.  Still a step up from 3.5 out of 11 last year, which itself was a slight step up from the year before.

Unless we get some player or coach rumors or news the blog will be fairly quiet for the next couple of weeks.  Once roster decisions are formally announced and we hot the Superdraft there will be something to talk about.

Player Decisions, 2025

Despite my travel and having bigger news like the press conference and Armas I'm still getting my player decisions out before the Front Office does.  We're going to start with the players they actually have to make a decision on, then I'll add a couple of suggestions on players who are already under contract for 2026.  Salary numbers are guaranteed 2025 salary.

Andreas Maxso ($1.4M) - As already announced Maxso won't be back next season.  That's the right call.  We probably should have sold him last offseason if there was a real offer from the Middle East.  He was a solid but unspectacular MLS center back that never lived up to his original DP status or his highest paid TAM player on the team status after he was bought down.

Noah Cobb ($109K) - Burgundy Wave has reported the price to make his loan permanent is $500K in GAM.  Do it.  There's enough there to be worth taking that shot on him.  I don't expect him to be the starter next season but the first option off the bench or possibly the 3rd starter in a 3-man back line.

Calvin Harris ($152K) - One of only two players on the roster that the club has no option on for 2026.  During the press conference Smith suggested multiple free agents would be exploring other options so I have to assume Harris is looking.  I'd be fine if we threw $300K or so at him to bring him back but I'm also ok if he walks.  None of our wingers impressed this year.

Oli Larraz ($131K) - The other free agent on the roster.  We know he's looking in Europe.  I like Oli as a good backup on the bench and I thought he was the better of the three headed Atencio/Ronan/Larraz trio in the middle, but none of them really earned a starting role.  I'd like to see us give him $300-$400K to be that bench option but I can't blame him if he finds a spot in Europe and takes his shot.

Rafael Santos ($401K) - Pick up his 2026 option.  He'll be in a contract year next season, make it clear the LB spot is his to win, and a new contract is available if he does.

Daouda Amadou ($81K) - No idea.  We barely saw anything of him.  But at that price picking up his 2026 option won't hurt us.

Sam Bassett ($81K) - Yeah, give the homegrown another year by picking up his option, if for no other reason than to keep Cole happy.

Nico Hansen ($81K) - Picking up his option is the easiest call on this list.  We have an option for 2027 too, so he can take 2026 to clearly win the backup job and see if he has potential to take over for Steffen in the future.

Jackson Travis ($107K) - I don't think there's a wrong decision here.  If you think there's real potential, pick up the option and bring him back.  If you think that Santos and Vines are going to hold down LB for the next 2-3 seasons then cut him loose.

Darren Yapi ($115K) - Yes, easy option decision.  I don't think he's a great starter in a 1-striker system, but as an option off the bench or playing off Navarro as a second striker he's got real value.

Nate Jones ($81K) - Spent all year on loan so nobody saw him.  Reports are the coaches were happy with what he did in Vegas.  As a fellow Husky I have to support picking up his option.  :D

Eleven decisions to make.  Cobb, Santos, Hansen, and Yapi should be easy decisions.  Maxso was an easy decision to let walk.  Amadou, Bassett, Travis, and Jones are low-risk decisions regardless of how they go.  The two tricky ones will be Harris and Larraz if they decide they want to stay.

There are seven players entering the last guaranteed year on their contracts, which makes them the easiest to buyout in the offseason if we want to.  Holding, Steffen, Murphy, Ronan, Fadal, Frederick, and Stewart-Baynes.  I think Steffen and Holding are the only two that are clearly in the 2026 plans.  Murphy and Ronan are making $400-$500K so buying them out is a bit more expensive, I'd expect them both to be back unless they get a better offer elsewhere and we can reduce that buyout.  Fadal, Frederick, and KSB would be easier to cut if we need the roster slot.

Everyone else has at least two years left and we should expect to be part of the 2026 roster unless an offer comes in for them.  That does mean we need to get more out of the likes of Atencio, Cannon, and Vines to justify the roster and salary cap they're taking up.

The last major decision won't be until summer, but the Alexis Manyoma loan is up on July 21st and Burgundy Wave has reported its a $2M purchase option on him.  While he looked good in his limited minutes at the end of the season there wasn't enough there to justify that yet.  We'll need to see a lot more in the early months of 2026.

Its Groundhog Day...Again

I picked a great week to be offline from the blog didn't I?  Of course the big news is that Armas won't be returning next season.  I covered my thoughts on that in my prior post so I'm not going to repeat that here  The key is now who we look at going forward.  So far only one name has leaked out, Australian John Aloisi, who's managed the Melbourne Heart, Brisbane Roar, and currently Western United, all in the Australian A-League.  He's expressed interest but its unclear if the Rapids have talked to him yet.

The other big incident last week was the press availability for Padraig Smith and Kevin Demoff, President of Team and Media Operations for KSE.  I wasn't able to watch it live due to my work travel, but I did go back and review it.  My first reaction was one of exhaustion.  Its the same old song and dance from Padraig Smith that we heard in 2023, and 2019, and 2017.  "Trust me, we have a plan" and all that.  Well, I don't trust him.  Nothing in the last 8+ years suggests I should.  Honestly, there was a point where I thought about not writing this blog post because I'm just so tired of this.

The one notable difference this time was the presence of Kevin Demoff.  This is the first time since KSE put Smith in charge when Hinchey went to USA Swimming that somebody from KSE has shown up for the Rapids.  In the notes I took there were only three comments from Padraig that I wrote down but there were a dozen or more from Demoff.  Really his comments and his presence were the most significant things about the press conference.

With the caveat that this is all talk and we need to see action, there were two main themes that came out of his comments.  One, that they want to draw the Rapids closer to the rest of the KSE operations than they've been in the past.  Of course that's not a hard bar to clear since its always seemed that the Rapids were off on their own in the bigger picture.  There was lots of talk about how Colorado needs to be able to take advantage of connections with Arsenal, the Rams, etc.  In fact Demoff probably talked too much about the Rams in particular.  MLS is not the NFL.

The second big focus was accountability.  Demoff said, very plainly, that "this club should be competing for titles.  Full stop." and "This club should be competing for MLS Cup year end and year out".  So, it makes it very easy then for the fans to apply that accountability.  Are we realistically competing for MLS Cup?  Something you could argue we've only done 4 times in 30 seasons (1997, 2010, 2016, and 2021).  At the same time though, Demoff hedged his bets by saying that "People have to hold us accountable from here", which means Smith is off the hook for the last 8 seasons of failure and KSE is off the hook for only one title in 20+ seasons.

One thing the duo sadly made clear was that there isn't going to be a seismic shift in strategy with the team.  Both made refence to the idea that there's "no correlation between spending and winning in MLS" and pointing out Philly's success with the cheapest roster and Atlanta's failure with one of the most expensive.  Of course anyone who's watched MLS for any length of time recognizes that both of those our outliers.  Braidon Nourse did the math, the teams in the top half of spending finish 13th on average, the bottom half, 18th.  Removing the two outliers changes those numbers to 12th and 20th.  If you're in the top half of spending you're about three times more likely to make the playoffs.  

The coaching search sounds like its going to be similar.  Demoff used the examples of the Rams, Avs, and Nuggets where they found a young up and coming coach and then built around him with younger players.  They did talk about how those other leagues allow for a "draft and develop" strategy in a way MLS does not, but a year ago Colorado went all in on the draft by trading for all of Philly's picks for 3 seasons.  Which kind of shows that we're not following Philly's road map for being successful with a low salary spend.  So expect the new coach to be a young guy who's getting his first shot at managing.

In the end this was the same talk we've heard time and time again.  The silver lining to it was that KSE does seem to be taking more interest for once.  Now they have to back that up with actual action.  I do think its notable that Demoff was present and said things like the same leadership team should not be choosing a fourth coach.  He fell back on him only being in the role for 18 months and not having a lot to go on, but it wasn't hard to read between the lines of all the accountability talk to see that with Smith being in a contract year its doe or die time for Padraig.  I don't think he has to win MLS Cup to save his job, but another poor year where we miss the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised that KSE makes a change.

There were a couple of pieces of news in amongst the talk.  Maxso, as expected, is returning to Europe (or potentially the Middle East).  Also Padraig mentioned we have a couple of free agents who will be investigating their options elsewhere.  He called out Larraz specifically as somebody who's looking at Europe but he did say free agents, plural, so I'm guessing Calvin Harris is also looking at his options and may not be back.  He's the only other free agent this year unless we decline an option on another veteran player.

There's really more I could rant about, like Demoff saying the "stadium is perfectly good enough if we deliver" (its not) or that "I have spent as much time on the Rapids in this new role as I have any other club" (sure, how gullible do you think we are) but eventually you just want to take this Groundhog Day cycle off, or my personal favorite time loop story, Stargate SG-11's Window of Opportunity.  Its disheartening to see the same clichés rolled out time and time again and I'd be very happy for KSE to prove me wrong this time.  I just don't expect them to do it.

On to 2026

Well, the season ended about how I predicted.  Dallas and FSL getting in, us missing out.  For a brief 2 minutes in the second half the Rapids were in a playoff spot, only to once again give out a late goal and only get 1 point.  Story of the season really.

Back on September 12th with 5 games left I pegged the target as 42 points.  Colorado reached 41 points and lost out on the tiebreaker (twice).  42 was the necessary total.  44 would have gotten us a home wild-card game.  For comparison the 9th placed team the last 6 years (ignoring the 2020 COVID mess) has gotten 42-47 points.  The last time the line was 41 was in 2018 when there were only 24 teams.  That means there were 102 less games played in the league, and 200-300 less points distributed.  Any team that failed to make the playoffs in the West this year stunk.

Looking at how Colorado failed to reach the promised land, take a look at this.  This is the point totals of the 4 teams in contention this week against the other 7 teams in the bottom half of the West.

• Dallas: 25
• FSL: 24
• San Jose: 21
• Colorado: 18

No coincidence that order is the order the four teams finished in.  Dropping points against Kansas City, the Galaxy, Dallas, and FSL, all in the last 7 games of the season, is what killed us.

The reality is though, whichever one of these four teams that would have gotten through tomorrow night's wild-card game is just a sacrifice to San Diego in the first round.  Really none of these teams deserved a playoff spot.

So, forward to 2026.  The biggest question looming over the team is will the mini-donuts be back again next season?  No, that's not it.  Its will Chris Armas be back.  For our purposes though, the question is, should Armas be back?

This is a tough call.  Armas clearly understands the importance of culture and even late into the second half on Saturday the players were playing hard and weren't giving up.  Those are points in his favor, as is the fact that he knows the reality of coaching in Colorado and what the challenge is, as well as a knowledge of the current roster.

Stacked against him are the results.  Armas was brought in after Fraser was fired.  Over the course of Robin's time here he averaged 1.4 PPG.  That was considered not good enough and we moved on (to be fair, it was clear Fraser had lost the locker room).  Armas, in his two seasons, has averaged 1.34 PPG.  Not an improvement over Fraser.  The difference is about 2 points a season, exactly what we missed the playoffs by.

There's also Armas' lineups and tactics.  His defensive strategies are awful.  Over the last two seasons the Rapids have given up 116 goals, despite having multiple TAM players on the back line.  The only other two years that we gave up that many goals were the two years that started with Anthony Hudson in charge.  Not somebody you want to be compared to.  There's also the problem of ending the season regularly playing Cole Bassett, arguably our best midfielder after Mihailovic left, out of position.  Cole is not a left winger, he's best as a 8.  Paxton Aaronson also talked after Saturday's game how he's more used to playing the 6/8 role, not the 10.  These are very questionable choices in must win games.

The final piece to this puzzle is Padraig Smith.  He's fired three coaches (Mastroeni, Hudson, Fraser) and hired their replacements, with a significant lack of success.  While he wouldn't have to fire Armas, since Chris is out of contract, does he deserve a chance to hire a fourth coach?  Its hard to say he does.  But is that a good reason to keep a coach that seems to be spinning his wheels a bit?

In the end I think I come down on the side of moving on from Armas.  While the intangibles he brings are important, what matters is results and he's just not getting them.  While I'm loathe at this point to have Smith take another run at a coach I don't see us succeeding next season with Armas in charge.  Since that's the only significant change we are likely able to make this offseason, we have to make it.  In reality though, until there are changes above the coach in the Front Office, namely getting a real, experienced, MLS GM in place, the decision on the coach is not likely to matter much.  Short of getting a Jim Curtain or the like Smith's failed roster building strategy will drive results more than any coaching decision.

I have some business travel coming up so I may be quiet for a bit but I will be back to talk about roster decisions and focuses for next season.  I'm going to try to get the roster decisions in this week before I leave but we'll see.  And I'll tale my lumps reviewing my predictions for 2025 next month once I'm home.

We're Still Alive?

 Somehow FSL and Dallas didn't put us out of our misery last weekend.  Not a total surprise that the Rocky Mountain Cup non-holders struggled in Seattle but I did not see the MLS Cup 2010-losers losing to the Galaxy.

That leaves 4 teams alive for the last two slots on Decision Day.  First, the schedule (all games simultaneous at 7pm on Saturday night):

• Austin (6) @ San Jose
• LAFC (3) @ Colorado
• FSL @ St. Louis (13)
• Dallas @ Vancouver (1)

San Jose and FSL have the advantage of playing teams with nothing on the line (other than Toronto passing St. Louis in the draft order).  Neither of their opponents can change their standing in the West.  Vancouver needs 1 point at home against Dallas to lock up the West (or San Diego not winning.  LAFC can jump San Diego for 2nd if they beat us and San Diego doesn't win, they can also drop to 4th if Minnesota wins and they don't beat us.  The other thing to play for is the final CONCACAF Champions Cup spot, and it will go to whomever finishes highest between San Diego, LAFC, and Minnesota.

The tl;dr version of all that, FSL should be expected to win given they're playing a weak team with nothing on the line and San Jose has a good shot to cause chaos, playing a team with nothing on the line.  Meanwhile Dallas and Colorado are facing teams who will be going all out.

So, what do we need to make the playoffs?

First, we are out with a loss no matter what happens elsewhere.

Second, with a draw we need two of the following three results:

• FSL loses in St. Louis
• Dallas loses in Vancouver
• San Jose does not beat Austin

(We win the tiebreaker with Dallas but lose it to FSL and San Jose)

Third, with a win we need one of the following two results:

• FSL does not win in St. Louis
• Dallas does not win in Vancouver

Getting all three other results with a draw or both other results with a win would mean we not only qualify for the playoffs but would host the wild-card game.

My prediction is that the other results won't matter, as I don't see us getting anything out of LAFC.  If we do somehow pull out a draw however I expect FSL to win and get in.  I think San Jose gets a win as well, and Dallas shuts the door with a draw in Vancouver.  I just can't see us getting the win we would need with that set of other results but if they pull it off I'll admit I was wrong.

Assuming the season ends this weekend we'll move on to the post-mortem in the near future.  If it doesn't then we'll talk playoffs.  Regardless whenever we get to the offseason I'm going to have some things to say about KSE.  As a teaser, recently this quote Matt Mahoney, senior VP of business development for KSE, was published:

One of the unique attributes of Denver is that we have all our major sports teams downtown

The End Is Nigh

 

Well, that could have gone better.  The 1-0 loss in Sandy means that we retained the Rocky Mountain Cup but in every other way it all but ended our season.  Combined with Dallas winning its put us on the ropes and we no longer control our path to the playoffs.  With one game left for us and two games left for Dallas and FSL, this is what needs to happen:

• Colorado beats LAFC AND
• FSL fails to win both their last two games OR
• Dallas fails to win both their last two games

OR

• Colorado draws LAFC AND two of three things happen:
• San Jose doesn't win their final game OR
• FSL loses both their games OR
• Dallas loses both their games

To finish the season Dallas goes to the Galaxy and Vancouver, FSL goes to Seattle and St. Louis, and San Jose hosts Austin.  And of course we host LAFC.  While I can see Dallas losing to Vancouver and FSL losing to Seattle they'll both be solid favorites in their other two games.  I expect Dallas to beat the Galaxy in LA this weekend and if FSL can pull off an upset in Seattle we'll be eliminated before we take the field against LAFC.

The reality is that even if a miracle happens and we slide into the post season we'll almost certainly have to go to Dallas or Sandy again, and we just lost in both places in the last 3 weeks.  It would almost certainly be a one and done for a team that just looks lost at this point.  We'll get into this more once we're officially eliminated but you have to wonder if the lack of a finalized extension for Armas is a sign that the FO was waiting to see how the playoff push went, and it didn't go well.

Playoff Hopes On The Line In The Dark Place

Since last week's post more results have gone against us in the playoff race.  Obviously our draw was not ideal, but San Jose and FSL also won and Dallas got a draw.  Houston did lose but they were always a long-shot anyway.  This leaves the Rapids still in 8th place but the margin has significantly decreased.  San Jose is only 2 points back, Dallas is also 2 points back, with a game in hand, and FSL is 3 points back with a game extra to play.  Meanwhile Austin and Portland are both 4 points ahead, and Austin has an extra game left too.

I'm still thinking 42 will be enough for somebody to get into the playoffs, but it may come down to tiebreakers.  The Rapids are at 40 so one win should be enough.  Potentially 2 draws would be too but that's a lot less sure after this past weekend.

This weekend the Rapids face FaKe SaLt LaKe at KKK Slogan Field in Utah.  A loss would not only keep us from that playoff total, it would allow FSL to pass us in the standings and still have that game in hand.  A win would put us at a point that FSL could only pass us if they won their final two games and we lost to LAFC, and even then just on a tiebreaker.  A draw leaves us in limbo, not enough points to feel confident in the playoffs and within 3 points of both FSL and Dallas with their games in hand.

When it comes to the Rocky Mountain Cup things are a little more in our favor.  With our one goal win earlier this season the pressure is on FSL to get a result to claim the Cup.  A Rapids win or draw means the Cup stays in Colorado.  Even a one goal loss means we keep the Cup as the teams would be tied on points and goals.  Only a multi-goal loss would allow that group from the wrong side of the Divide to claim the trophy.

In the end we, once again, really need a result this weekend.  I really don't think relying on getting a result at home against LAFC is smart.  The idea of Son and Bouanga running at Holding and Maxso is not something that fills me with hope.  So we need 3 points in Sandy this weekend, in a matchup where we historically struggle late in the season.  In the last 10 late-season Rocky Mountain Cup matchups (Sept/Oct games), dating back to 2010, the Rapids have won 2 of them and drawn 2 others.  That means 6 wins for FSL, many of them crushing our last hopes of the season.  Notable though one of the two Rapids wins was the 5-0 beatdown in Sandy in September of 2020.  So it is possible.

Playoff Race - 3 Games To Go

Ok, with 3 games to go the group above is who the Rapids can theoretically pass or be passed by. Note that chart includes a point for Portland as they are currently tied with Vancouver in the 34th minute, so they could drop back a point or add two more by the time you read this.  Realistically though, we aren't catching Seattle or Austin, and probably not Portland.  This is really about who can catch us more than who we can catch.

Lets look at what each of the 4 teams behind us has left:

Dallas: They go to Portland this weekend, then a home and home over the following two weekends with the Galaxy before finishing in Vancouver.

That two-legged tie with LA is bad news for the Rapids.  At this point the only thing the defending champs have to play for is to make up 3 points on Montreal to avoid the Wooden Spoon, something that might be clinched before the second Galaxy-Dallas game.  Also Dallas is hot and Portland only has 2 league wins since mid-July (though they just went up 1-0 as I type this).  Getting the Timbers on short rest is a bonus for them.

Houston: The Dynamo are in Nashville this weekend, then host San Diego before finishing in KC.

I don't see them making the playoffs.  Maybe they get a win in Nashville this weekend, though it seems unlikely.  San Diego should crush them, and by the time they het to KC they may already be eliminated, though that should be 3 points if there's any fight left.

San Jose: A trip down the coast to San Diego, a trip up the coast to Vancouver, and then Austin at home to finish out the season.  The Earthquakes are toast.  They'll be lucky to get another win.

FSL: The Utah Soccer Club has Austin in Utah this weekend, then the Rocky Mountain Cup finale next weekend.  After that its a trip to Seattle and they finish in St. Louis.

I expect them to struggle in Seattle but cruise in St. Louis unless things have gone bad and they've been eliminated.  A win this weekend over Austin is certainly possible.  And I expect nothing but pain from our trip to Utah.

Of course while all of this is going on we've got Minnesota this weekend, the aforementioned trip to the dark place, and LAFC at home on Decision Day.

I think Houston and San Jose are out of it barring meltdowns by at least two other other three.  This is a battle between Dallas, FSL, and us for the two wild card spots.  Given their schedule if Dallas beats Portland this weekend I can see them catching Portland and forcing them into the wild-card bout Portland won't drop all the way out of the playoffs.

I still think 42 points are enough to make the playoffs, I am no longer sure we can get to 42 though.  This could very well come down to the result next weekend in Sandy.  The winner is probably going to make the playoffs and the loser may very well not.  We can't count on any points after this weekend given our history in Utah and LAFC's quality.  If we can beat Minnesota we should be in.  If we can't its feels like we're going to be on the outside looking in.

The Badge, The Players, The Fans Deserve Better - 2 Years Later

2 years ago tonight Centennial 38 walked out of the game in the first half in protest, leaving behind the simple message.  The Badge, The Players, The Fans Deserve Better.  Accompanied by a letter released a couple of days earlier the request was relatively simple.  KSE, invest in your club.  2 years later, have they?

I'm going to split "KSE" into two parts.  Essentially what the Rapids themselves control and what KSE above them can drive.  Coming out of that horrendous season KSE obviously opened the checkbook to acquire players.  We added Djordje Mihailovic, Sam Vines, Zach Steffen, and (eventually) made Rafa Nvarro's loan permanent.  That's on top of our normal offseason moves, trades, etc.  Obviously KSE saw that the team needed to be improved.

Beyond that offseason though, any improvement in the squad has been driven by reinvesting money from selling players (Bombito, Awaziem, and particularly Mihailovic).  And what little improvement has been made off the field has been around the edges with what budget the Rapids themselves can find each season.  The major issues have continued to be ignored by KSE.

To remind everyone of what KSE said in their response two years ago:

On the field we are focused on returning the team to the level of competitiveness we expect and have seen in recent years

Well to be fair, squeaking into the playoffs is traditionally the Rapids' level of competitiveness I don't believe that's what they were claiming they were aiming for. 

Off the field, we have already engaged Legends, Civitas, Perkins & Will, and Turner Construction on a number of feasibility studies and analyses around potential infrastructure projects as we assess a future vision for DICK'S Sporting Goods Park and the club's training environment. We are also actively evaluating additional ways to enhance the gameday experience inside and outside the stadium.

So, how's that going?  Not only has almost nothing happened (as I understand it, the training pitch has been relayed) there have been rumors there were bigger plans that were cancelled this offseason.  If nothing else, Turner Construction is no longer the official KSE construction partner, its now Kiewit.  Meanwhile the scoreboard continues to be a running joke, C38 has had on-going issues with Stadium Ops that have only been solved by getting higher-ups involved on a regular basis, the stadium still lacks basic amenities expected at this point like wi-fi and better food options (though in all seriousness, shout out for getting the mini donuts left) and what small changes the Rapids have been able to scrape together amount to some banners and flags.  Though again, credit to the Rapids for creating the Legends Garden as part of the Balboa retirement ceremony.

Over the next few months, we will be finalizing the master plan for our exciting Victory Crossing Project. When this is ready in early 2024, we will be hosting several open forums with supporters and members of the community to gather feedback on our plans for the club, stadium and entire project.

Right.  It is now (almost) fall of 2025 and there has been no movement on this front, no open forums that I'm aware of and any possible project on this front seems dead.

So needless to say they essentially followed through on none of the things they said they would do in their response to C38's protest.  I'll give them some credit for investing in the team in order to achieve that first goal of competitiveness, it just hasn't worked (and the failures of the FO's roster building strategy are long, well covered here, and best saved for another day).  Outside of that initial burst of investment in the 2023-24 offseason though, there's been nothing.

I do see the Rapids trying to make an effort.  They have invested a large amount of the money they've earned from player sales back into the team.  They spent $1M (in GAM) to get Awaziem and Murphy, $1.125M to get KDP, $1.3M (in GAM) for Atencio, $350K (in GAM) on Philly's draft picks, $500K+ on Lucas Herrington, they have an option to buy Manyoma for $2.25M, and of course they spent $8.2M on Aaronson.  Around 14.5M, give or take.  That leaves around $2M left over from the Bombito, Awaziem, and Mihailovic sales but some of these numbers aren't exact and of course you want something in the bank to make moves this offseason.  And I may have forgotten a significant move.  One more $500K-$1M move would certainly represent a full re-investment of the funds  Away from the roster the Rapids have been trying to improve the stadium experience, its just their hands are tied due to a lack of budget and not being the final decision makers when it comes to the stadium (that would be the DSG Park Stadium Ops division of KSE).

Two years later, The Badge, The Players, The Fans Still Deserve Better.  There's just no evidence KSE is going to do better by them.

I'm Still Here

 

Yes, I'm not dead!  The last couple of weeks I've been on a much needed vacation in Florida so that's why there's been no posting.  BTW, Universal's Epic Universe is very cool and includes a section dedicated to the classic Universal Monsters (Dracula, Frankenstein, Mummy, Wolfman, etc.), thus the image above.

This isn't a game preview, this is an analysis of what's left this season.  Namely that the Rapids have 5 games left:

•  Houston tomorrow night at the Dick
• A trip to Dallas next week
• Minnesota back here to end the month
• The Rocky Mountain Cup showdown in Sandy to start October
• and we finish with LAFC at home after the international break

The Rapids are currently 8th in the West and would host San Jose in the wild-card game if the playoffs started today.  However FSL has two games in hand and could pass us if they win both of them.

Looking at the teams above us, Portland is 3 points ahead of us with a game in hand, Austin is 5 points ahead of us with a game in hand, and LAFC is 5 points ahead of us with three games in hand.  Maybe 7th is reachable if Portland stumbles but that's probably it.  Below us San Jose is 1 point back, Houston is 3 points back, FSL is 5 points back with the two games in hand, and Dallas is 5 points back with a game in hand.  Safe to say SKC, St. Louis, and the Galaxy are very unlikely to catch us.  So we're talking about 5 teams for 2 spots, or 3 teams for 6 if you think Portland could fall back.  And we play 3 of those teams head-to-head to finish the season.

42 points would likely be enough to make the playoffs in the West.  Multiple of SJ/HOU/FSL/DAL would have to play above 1.5 PPG the rest of the way to reach 43 points, and DAL and HOU would have to play closer to 2.0 PPG to do it.  The Rapids currently sit at 36 points, so two more wins should be enough.

Ok, so the target is two wins (and it may take even less than that).  Where are those wins coming from?

• Houston - The Rapids haven't beat Houston since Halloween night 2021.  However before that Houston hadn't beat Colorado since March of 2019.  Maybe its time for the streak to flip again?  At home against a team outside the playoff picture, tomorrow night is the easiest game left on the schedule.  Its a must win.
• Dallas - When it comes to the playoffs Toyota Stadium is DSG Park South.  Does that apply in crunch time before the playoffs?  Dallas hasn't beat us since 2022, and only twice since the beginning of 2020, probably our second best chance for points.  Close to a must win.
• Minnesota - Now the schedule gets tough.  We did just go to the Land of Lakes and beat United, but that surprised everyone.  Historically Minnesota has been better than us, though they've only won once at the Dick.  This may depend on where Minnesota is in playoff positioning, right now they're second but with a long-shot to win the West.  Still I wouldn't want to put our hopes on getting a win in this one.
• FSL - LOL, I don't need to look at the numbers.  We all know what happens to our late-season hopes if we're depending on a result against these guys, especially in Sandy.  At this point assume we'll get 0 points and hope we can keep it a 1 goal loss and keep the RMC, everything else is gravy.  Our one hope is that FSL has stumbled and is out of the running by then.
• LAFC - Lets be honest, LAFC is a much better team than us.  But we have two things going for us in this one.  LAFC has to play 7 games in the 5 weeks leading up to this match, we have to play 4.  Also LAFC hasn't won in Colorado since 2018.  This one will be all about what's on the line for each team.  Have the Rapids clinched yet and can they improve their standing?  Has LAFC clinched home field advantage yet and if not do they still have a chance?  In the end, we shouldn't leave it to the final game.  That's gone bad for us in the past.

42 is absolutely possible for us with this schedule.  But we should really go out and get there by winning the next two.  If we fail to do that we'll be looking at an uphill battle with 3 games that we will likely be the underdog in.  If we can get 4 points out of the next two our odds are still ok.  Less than that and I don't like our chances.

Crow Eaten, FO Deserves Kudos

17 days ago when Djordje Mihailovic was sold I went off on the Front Office.  Well, my predictions for the immediate future of this team were wrong.  Its only fair I return to take my lumps and to give the Front Office the plaudits they deserve now that the window has closed (still open for 90 minutes as I write this but its clear they're done).

In this window the Rapids sold Awaziem and Mihailovic, two starters, for a smidge under $9M.  (Djordje gets 10% of any inter-league sale so the $8M they got for him is actually $800K to Djordje and $7.2M to the club).  They then turned around and dropped $8.1M+ on Paxten Aaronson to replace Mihailovic and brought in Rob Holding on a free to replace Awaziem.  On top of that they brought in CB Noah Cobb and W Alexis Manyoma on loan-to-buy deals, traded for LB Rafael Santos, and got the long-rumored CB Lucas Herrington over the line for next season (his contract starts in January).

By the standards of the Rapids that's a great summer transfer window.  Compare that to summer of 2022 when we traded Mark-Anthony Kaye to Toronto to open the window and Smith promised an active window, only for the sole move to be signing Felipe Gutierrez on a short-term loan.  Even by overall MLS standards this is a good window, especially for a team with the reputation in the league Colorado has.

Combine that with the fact that since Djordje was traded the team has won both league games and forced Cruz Azul to penalties without him (they lost to Tijuana without him, but that was the day before the sale was announced).  That includes a big win in Minnesota and has put them in a solid place for a playoff run with 4 games against teams below them in the standings followed by two tough home games sandwiched around our annual trip to Sandy.  The vibes are suddenly much better in Commerce City than they were 2.5 weeks ago.

Breaking down my initial feedback on the players:

Aaronson - Obviously the big move of the window.  A 7 million Euro/8.1 million dollar deal with 1.5 Euros of add-ons.  Smashing the transfer record for the team, doubling what they paid for Navarro when you include the loan fee.  Plus signing him to a 5-year DP contract through 2030, the 21 year old midfielder will be the cornerstone of the this team for the next few years, unless he plays well enough to go back to Europe and make the Rapids some money.  IMO Aaronson has a higher ceiling than Mihailovic did, but he's more raw and has a lower floor (at least at the moment).  We're going to need to bring him along with deliberate moves that build a team to support what he does well.  He's certainly going to turn this team even more into a high press.

Alongside what the player can do, the Front Office going out and making this move after the Mihailovic move sends a statement to the fans.  Reports tonight were that the Aaronson deal only started once Djordje was sold, he wasn't initially on the radar this window.  Never have we seen Smith and Taylor move this fast for this type of signing.  Is it a one off?  I don't know, but it was a sorely needed move to convince the fan base (including myself) it wasn't going to be the same old same old from this club.  Many national writers are suggesting this could be the dawn of a new era of the Rapids but I'm not going that far yet.

Holding - An interesting signing that you have to think the Arsenal relationship played into.  After leaving Kroenke's other club Holding went to Palace where he had an immediate falling out with the manager along with injuries.  If he can overcome those and buy into what Armas is doing we might have a PL center back for 1.5 years.  At 31 I expect this to be a one and done contract to get us over the hump to when our other new CB's are ready to take over as starters.  Holding finally has his visa and will be available in LA this weekend.

Cobb - The one new addition we've actually seen play so far, and he's looked good in the 3-back system we're using.  Atlanta fans are pretty upset that they could lose him and if he keeps playing like this I have to assume we'll exercise the option to buy.  I'm not yet ready to anoint him a 2026 starter but he looks like at worst a good 3rd CB for the team.

Manyoma - This biggest question mark of our signings.  A 22 year old (older than Aaronson!) Colombian winger that has a good pedigree coming from Estuidiantes and the Colombian U20s, but without the stats to back it up. When he looked to be our big signing with a possible DP label there was some concern, but as a U-22 and on a loan to buy option I'm willing to give it some time.  No report if his visa is in so he can be available this weekend.

Santos - A regular starter at LB for Orlando the last two years he's found himself on the bench this season as formation changes and other signings had him not as high in the pecking order.  Hopefully he's able to solidify the position in a way we haven't seen since Vines left for Europe.  At worse he can be a stalking horse for Vines or Travis to step up and lock down the position themselves.  A lot will depend on if we continue with the 3 CB/2 wingback formation or revert to the more traditional back 4 that would likely suit Santos more than Vines.

Herrington - Colorado had been linked with the Australian youth international this past offseason and were just waiting for his contract at Brisbane Roar to run down.  Reports are that Roar got a club-record fee for him, and their prior record was about $650K so assume we paid at most $1M and probably less.  At 18 he's clearly not going to be a starter next February, but i expect him to be an option off the bench while maybe playing with Rapids 2 a bit.

One roster note, Josh Atencio has been bought down from a U-22 player, which allows us to stick with 3 DPs (Navarro, Aaronson, and the currently unsigned Cabral) and 3 U-22 players (Bassett, KDP, and Manyoma).  Reports are that Cabral is expected to sign soon which would free up his DP slot, but the Rapids had to be roster compliant to sign Aaronson, so thus the need to buy down Atencio with GAM.

If I'm picky around the edges there are a couple things that weren't perfect about this window.  We still need a backup striker, the visas are taking far too long (Son got his in two days), etc.  So I might call this window an A-.  But its the strongest Rapids summer window we've seen in a long time, maybe ever.  So once again, kudos to the Front Office.  I will enjoy my crow sandwich the rest of the season.

Still Here

Just so I don't lose all my readers this blog isn't dead, despite my last post.  I needed a week or so and I fully intended to write something this week but a VERY busy week of work, some personal stuff like my wife and I doing a John le Carre adaptation marathon recently, and now not feeling great tonight has kept me from actually sitting down and writing as planned this week.  At this point I'll probably just wait until the window closes on Thursday and do a wrap-up/state of the team post Thursday night or Friday.

In general I don't expect to be doing regular game previews/reviews the rest of the season.  More general coverage of the team, where we're at, and what I think needs to happen if we want to be more than "making up the numbers" in this league going forward.

Rapids Sell Mihailović, Punt 2025 (and 2026?).

I don't know.  This might be it for me.  I'm not sure its worth it anymore.

Tonight was going to be a quick recap of the Tijuana loss last night.  I even said on socials yesterday that:

Tonight's game showed what we all know.  This team has questionable depth at best and unless all the starters are clicking they are completely reliant on Mihalovic to do anything in the attack.  This team suffers not due to coaching but due to stunningly terrible roster construction.

The reason Djordje missed the game was reported as 'personal reasons' and today we found out what those reasons were.  He asked out and the Rapids are selling him to Toronto for $8 million in cash, plus another million in possible peformance add-ons, and keeping a sell-on percentage.  This has been confirmed by multiple local and national outlets, but Bogert had it first.

Further information from Burgundy Wave suggests that Djordje was unhappy with the team ambition and wanted a bigger contract.  Right off the bat the CBA calls for players to get 10% of any sale price fir intra-league sales so he's going to make $800K on the sale and reports are that he is already in talks with Toronto for a contract extension.  Toronto reportedly made two offers the team turned down before Djordje went to the Front Office and asked them to accept an offer.  They tried multiple times to talk him out of it but his decision was made.

I spent most of the day seething over this.  I am a bit mad at Mihailovic for forcing this midseason but most of my anger is reserved for the Front Office who once again has fumbled the ball and in a bigger way than perhaps ever before.  DM is, arguably, the best on-field signing this club has ever made.  Certainly as a straight signing (Balboa was a MLS league start signing and Pablo came out of the expansion draft, Valderrama was a trade) and we just let him go for the same price we got for Bombito last year.  A kid that got 25 pro starts before being sold and who's only 17 months younger than Djordje.

But the amount really doesn't matter.  What the problem is is once again the Front Office has overpromised, underdelivered, and refuses to substantially make any changes to how they're running the team.  They're happy to be MLS's junk drawer where the excess players that nobody wants but are too valuable to just cut goes, and then when there becomes a need for that player the league (or others) opens the drawer and pulls it out to use and the Rapids are left holding the bag.

This is now Awaziem and Mihailovic that have asked out in the last month, and there's a rumor that Fernandez was disgruntled earlier this season which may have led to the trade to Portland.  Clearly something is rotten in Commerce City.

Let me put it plainly:

Padraig Smith and Fran Taylor need to make a public statement this week about what's going on and what the plan is.  And not one couched in marketing speak but a genuine "yeah, this isn't great, we screwed up, but here's what we're doing" explanation.

The Rapids have 9 games left this season (plus playing out the string with Cruz Azul on Thursday).  Without our main offensive engine I think its safe to say we can write off the two Minnesota games and the LAFC game.  And given how things usually go in Sandy we can kiss that game and the RMC goodbye.  That leaves 5 games against Atlanta, Galaxy, SKC, Houston, and Dallas.  We likely need 12-13 points in those games just to make the playoffs.  I don't see how we get there unless Smith pulls a rabbit out of his hat the likes of which we've never seen in this window.

So that puts us into 2026.  Between the Bombito, Awaziem, and Mihailovic sales, and subtracting out the money we used to get Awazioem and Atencio, plus a bit for Cinci's take on the Awaziem deal, we're looking at a kitty of something around $14M-$14.5M the club should have to rebuild (again).  Oh and they have to decide if they're brining Armas back (and he has to decide if he wants to come back).

With that money they need, at minimum, two MLS caliber starting center backs (since Maxso is almost certainly gone), a better left back, an offensive engine, probably a winger upgrade, and a whiole lot fo depth.  Braidon Nourse at the Post is already hearing that the plan is to spend the Djordje money on 3-4 different players.  Breaking $7.2M down three to four ways means we're looking at spending less than $2M a player on average, which sure looks like Smith's failed "buy kids with "potential" and hope they come good" strategy as opposed to buying a couple of guys that can help us win now.

At this point, why should any of us bother being fans?  Its clear winning is not important to this organization.  They want to develop players, make some money, and repeat.  If they get lucky every 3-4 seasons and make a decent Cup or playoff run, that's gravy.  But they're never really going to compete in this league despite what Smith and his "Rapids Way" might claim.

I don't know.  I might be done.  Certainly there will be no Cruz Azul coverage, we'll see if I have anything for Minnesota on Sunday, or the rest of the season.

5 In A Row, A 6th Might Be Worth It?

In my preview of the Santos game I stated that the Rapids should not focus on this competition.  I still don't know that they should but the results over the last three nights have certainly made it a tougher decision.

Obviously the biggest one from Colorado's POV was their comeback win over the Mexican bottom-dwellers, with Navarro getting 2 goals in the second half.  This is a game that could have been 5-1 Rapids at times, we just couldn't finish (heard that before).  The regulars all got the start so some rotation will likely be needed tomorrow night.

The other results on Thursday were significant.  The Galaxy beat Tijuana by 3 and the Sounders curb-stomped Cruz Auzl with 7 goals in the second half.  The Montreal and Miami failed to win over the last tow nights (though Miami did win its shootout).

What that means is that only 6 MLS teams can now get to 9 points, meanwhile on the Liga MX side 4 teams are already at least 5 points (one at 6) with a positive goal differential and one can still get there.  This means that with just a shootout loss in their next game they almost certainly finish ahead of Cruz Azul and likely Tijuana.  Possibly Santos too.

So the Rapids are now looking at playing two all-but-eliminated Liga MX teams (possibly officially eliminated by the time they play Cruz Azul) while being in a position to be one of only 6 MLS teams to make it to 6 points after two games.  Portland is currently up a goal and a man with 30 minutes to play so they look likely to be the first, but Minnesota was in the same position earlier this evening and blew it.  Cinci and RBNY have a chance tomorrow as well.

The drawback though is that the other two teams that can do it are Seattle and the Galaxy, the other teams in Colorado's pod, facing  the same group of all-but eliminated Liga MX teams.  You would expect that if Colorado gets there, they will too (certainly Seattle would be expected to, especially with Santos down their keeper) and with a better GD thanks to their first games.

So its time for Armas to make a big decision.  Do we risk our game in Minnesota by playing the starters tomorrow night and/or on Thursday to grab one of those 4 slots?  Do we rotate some tomorrow, hope to get the win, then look at the lay of the land and make a decision on Thursday?  Or do we focus on the playoff run and plan for the reserves to get most of the next two games?

Its a harder decision for me now than it was on Wednesday.  The games are, mostly, breaking in Colorado's favor.  If push comes to shove though I think the playoffs are more important.  There's a week between now and the Minnesota game, play a mix of starters who feel rested and backups tomorrow and see where things land come Thursday.

Man of the Match: Rafael Navarro.  2 goals, easy decision.

Leagues Cup 2025

 

Tomorrow night the defending 3rd place Rapids kick off their Leagues Cup 2025 campaign with a home match against our old friends Santos Laguna.  The competition has undergone some radical changes this season.  Out are the 3 team groups, in is a cross-league Phase 1 of the competition.

In Phase 1 the 18 playoff teams from last season (one exception, due to their CCC and Canadian Championship play Vancouver has been replaced by San Diego) face the 18 Liga MX teams.  The 36 teams have been broken down into six 6-team pods.  Each team in the pod plays the three teams in their pod from the other league, in the Rapids' case that's Santos Laguna, Club Tijuana, and Cruz Azul.  The top 4 teams from each league across the six pods will move on to the quarterfinals where each matchup will be Liga-MX - MLS.

So we are no longer trying to win our group, we are trying to be one of the 4 best MLS teams in the competition.  And, as the lowest MLS team in the group we play one game on the road while the other two teams in our group get three home games.

Looking back at the last Clausura Santos Laguna finished deal last and Tijuana finished 13th.  Cruz Azul finished 3rd.  The prior Apertura Santos Laguna once again finished last, Tijuana was 7th, and Cruz Azul won the whole thing.

So tomorrow night's game is absolutely winnable and Sunday against Tijuana is a game we can win.  Next Thursday in LA against Cruz Azul?  We will not be the favorites in any way.

So because of all of that, we shouldn't prioritize this competition this year.  I know our run last year was the high point of the season, but the situation was different.  One, we were solidly in a playoff spot needing only a few more points to clinch one when the Leagues Cup started.  Two, the league took a break for a month to play Leagues Cup so we didn't have to balance the playoff fight with the Cup.  The Rapids play a league match in Minnesota a week from Sunday.  We can't run out the starters tomorrow night, Sunday, Thursday, and Sunday again without ending the season like we did in 2024, with no energy and racking up loss after loss.

Plus this season with the format change, just getting one home win doesn't get us to the knockouts.  We need more than 6 points probably to have a shot.  So throw out the starters tomorrow night, play the kids against Tijuana, and then see where you stand going against Cruz Azul.  Unless the odds are very good that 1 point will get us through against the Liga MX giants we should throw the reserves to the wolves and rest the starters for league play.

No prediction for this one as its impossible to know what Armas is thinking right now.  A quick recap of the game plus a preview of Tijuana on Fri/Sat.

Rapids Get Flattened In Philly

It was an ugly game in Philly Saturday night.  I won't go through the blow by blow since this recap got delayed but more general thoughts.

• A pretty goal by the Rapids even with Bassett hitting the bar.  Nice to see the Bassett-Mihailovic-Navarro combo working well
• That was the only combo that worked on Saturday night.  Its like the team forgot the concept of midfield possession.
• The wingers, especially Harris, had an awful night.  Just when you thought we had settled on a couple of starters they lay an egg like that.
• Harris was also responsible for losing his man on Philly's first goal.  Though I have to question the tactics of covering a corner in a way that leads to the dangerous number 9 being marked by a right winger.  That should be Maxso or Murphy.
• Murphy...is not the solution to fill the CB hole.  Rob Holding or somebody else needs to show up soon.
• Colorado had one shot on target (the goal) and 4 total shots.  Philly had 30 shots, 11 on goal.  You can't win a game with that level of discrepancy.
• The Rapids have given up 2+ goals in the their last 9 road games.  The last time they didn't was the 2-1 win in San Jose on March 15th.  That was also their last road win.
• We gave up two goals late, again, but in reality being the last 5 minutes didn't really factor into it this time.  Philly was going to get a winner, with their level of pressure and they did.  Then the Rapids pushed up to find an equalizer and gave up a third.
• Only using 3 subs, and Sam Bassett being the 3rd, was an interesting choice that did not work for Armas.  MLS Analytics had Sam Bassett with the lowest G+ on the Rapids (and lowest in the game).  The bottom 5 were Cannon, KDP, Maxso, Harris, and S. Bassett.
• If the playoffs started today the Rapids would be the 9 seed and play the wild card game on the road...in Sandy.

Man of the Match: Zack Steffen.  Without him this is a 5 or 6 goals against game.  At least.

Rapids Make 249th Birthday Pilgrimage to Philly

 

Independence Hall National Historic Park

Since they're in Philly this year the Rapids likely won't be able to visit for the country's 250th birthday next season.  Barring some kind of Cup matchup that is.  Tomorrow night they take on a Union team that's just a point off the Supporters Shield and tied for second in the East.  A tough task for the visitors, but coming off of games against LAFC, Vancouver, and Seattle they should be used to it by now.  Kickoff for this one is at 5:30pm and there's a gathering at the Celtic to watch the game after the NWSL Denver Summit kickoff event downtown.

Availability Report:

OUT: Connor Ronan (ankle)

Not ideal for Ronan to be out but with the hole in the backline after Awaziem was sold I think Larraz or Atencio were more likely to start anyway.  Nice not to see anyone else on the list.

Tomorrow night is the debut of the new green third kit and I'm looking forward to that.  The real question is how Armas chooses to fill the Awaziem hole.  I think he'll minimize the changes and leave Cannon on the right and Keegan in the middle, but I could see those reversed.  A possibility Murphy starts as well.  Cobb might be on the bench but I'd be surprised if he saw time.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Mihailovic.  Based on their recent play I wouldn't be totally shocked by a draw here, but I think this is a steep hill to climb while rebuilding the back line.  Philly bosses the game and gets the win but Djordje gets one off a set piece (or at worst assists one off a set piece).