Ins and Outs in Commerce City

A trio of trades by the Rapids before the window closed last night has certainly generated some discussion today among burgundy fans.  We're going to break each one down in order of complexity and then talk about the bigger picture.

Rapids loan CB Lalas Abubakar from Columbus until the end of the season for $125K in TAM

This is pretty straight forward.  The Rapids needed CB help immediately and Abubakar wasn't getting a ton of time in Columbus.  I expect Lalas to start ASAP, maybe even on Saturday.  I also get the impression that the teams will work out a long-term deal to keep him here before the season ends.  Abubakar is a 24 year old Ghanaian who was the 5th overall pick in the 2017 SuperDraft.  He made 20 starts for the Crew last season but has only made 1 start this year.  He played for the Ghana U-20 team but got his green card last year.  He's not a top MLS starter but he can do the job.

Rapids acquire F Jonathan Lewis from NYCFC for $650K of TAM and a 2020 international slot

Lewis is the big pickup of the day.  A 21 year old winger/forward from Florida, he got his start by signing for Bradford City (his mother is English) before realizing he'd rather be home in the States.  He came back and played for a year at Akron before being drafted by NYCFC with the 3rd overall pick in the 2017 draft.  He's made 31 appearances for the Pigeons over 3 years with 3 goals and 5 assists.  He's also been capped by the U.S. Nats 4 times in 2019.  He's best as a winger, which we're not currently playing with, but can also tuck under a striker more centrally.  Probably not a true #10 but might be able to serve in a pinch.  He came at a high cost though, with a lot of TAM going to NYCFC.  According to reports there were multiple teams pursuing him, which pushed his price up.  Depending on unannounced performance targets the TAM price could go up by up to another $100K.

Rapids acquire CB Abdul Rwatubyaye, $50K TAM, 2019 international slot, a 2nd round pick in 2020, and $250K season ending injury replacement allowance for Benny Feilhaber.  Teams also swap waiver wire priority order (KC to #1, Colorado to #5)

Yeah, that's as confusing as it looks.  Let's start with the players, then we'll move to the rest of the stuff.  Rwatubyaye is a 22 year old Rwandan defender who signed with KC this past offseason.  Before that he had played for 6 years in Rwanda, winning the Rwandan Premier League 3 times.  He's also a regular for the Rwandan National Team after playing at each national team youth level, playing for them in World Cup qualifying and African Cup of Nations qualifying.  He's played in all 4 of their most recent African Cup of Qualifying matches.  All that said, he's still very raw and is expected to be a long-term project, not a 2019 contributor.

In exchange Benny Feilhaber is going back to KC.  Feilhaber was somewhat of a surprise signing this offseason but was expected to bring senior leadership to fill the gap until we could get new DPs in 2020.  Obviously as this season has gone south the need for that senior leadership has evaporated.  At the same time it appears Benny wasn't aware, or wasn't up, for what he signed up for.  In quotes from a KC reporter:

My response to these quotes is "Benny, if you don't want to be here, we don't need you".  I understand the desire to finish on a high note, but its not like this is year 3 of a 4 year deal that hasn't gone well.  This is 10 games into a 2 year commitment for a team that could be expected to be, well, not this bad, but not competing for championships.

Outside of the player swap we also traded some assets.  The $50K of TAM, the draft pick, and the international slot explain themselves (we needed an slot to add Rwatubyaye to the roster).  Swapping of the waiver wire order seems fairly meaningless. I'm guessing KC knows, or believes, that a player they're interested in will be waived soon and want first dibs on him.  The season ending injury replacement allowance is a big name for teams being allowed to spend up to $250K of their own money to replace a significant player that got a season-ending injury in the early part of the season (before the window closes).  Essentially KC is paying us $250K out of their own pocket that we can use as GAM.

So, in the end, here's the combine total of today's activities:

OUT: Feilhaber, 2020 international slot, #1 waiver wire pick, $775K-$875K of TAM (most not payable until 2020)

IN: Lewis, Rwatubyaye, Abubakar (on loan through 2019), 2019 international slot, #5 waiver wire pick, KC's 2nd round pick in 2020, $50K in TAM, $250K in GAM

Essentially we gave up Feilhaber and about $500-$600K in TAM, plus swapped waiver wire and international spots, for a National team player, a raw CB prospect, and a starting CB on loan, plus a draft pick.  That's not a bad days work.  It, however, doesn't help us much for 2019.  Adding two or three young players to the list of Acosta, Anderson, Bassett, Ford, Hundley, Nicholson, Raben, Rosenberry, Shinyashiki, and Vines is a lot of youth at low cost for the next coach to work with.  We've got a full youth movement going, but its going to take time to pay off.  I'm not sure the fans, or Smith, has that time.

Hello Darkness My Old Friend...

Another game, another loss.  Sjoberg got worked for two goals, Kamara picked up two goals on PK, Rubio lost his head, and the Rapids lost the game.

With the loss the Bodmer Line now sits at 1.708 pts/game.  In 2016 we played the whole season at 1.706 pts/game.  Last year it was June 1st when we passed that mark and declared the season over.  I see no reason not to do the same now.  10 games in and 2019 is done.

(BTW, if you're wondering, the quickest the team could reach that mark is in 9 games, so the 2 points we have extended our season 1 game)

Really, at this point, we're down to three games that matter.  The two Rocky Mountain Cup matches (the first being next week) and our U.S. Open Cup game, and if we win that, the one that follows, etc.  Beyond that we should just use the season to determine what is salvageable from this roster.

Let The Conor Casey Era Begin!

For the first time in a while, outside of the season opener, I'm excited and intrigued about a home match.  Tomorrow night the Conor Casey coaching era begins as the Rapids host Vancouver.  There will be lots of interested eyes watching how the team will react to the leadership change.  I expect the tailgate will have a more festive air than its had for a while when it starts at 4pm before the 7pm kickoff.  If you can't make it the dynamic duo of Fleming and Balboa will have the call on Altitude.

Injury Report:
OUT: D Kortne Ford

That's as good as the availability reports have looked all season.  Hopefully after his recent knee surgery Ford is on his way to a full recovery finally.

This is half educated guess and half "this is what I think he should do".  With his first game in charge its hare to know what Conor it thinking but I'm betting a pretty basic formation that gets as many people into their preferred positions to maximize the chances of success.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Kamara and Rubio.  Vancouver has the worst offense in the league, we have the worst defense.  So I think they'll get one, but only one.  Meanwhile I think Casey's attack-minded focus gives us enough to get two and our first win of the season.

Conor Casey Rapids #9 Is Back!

By now I'm sure you've all heard the news.  Anthony Hudson was dismissed as Colorado Rapids Head Coach today and Conor Casey has been given the interim title.  A much needed change for a club that's been at a historic awful start.  Hudson finishes with a league 0.77 pts/game average, worse in club history (not counting Wegerle's single game as player/manager at the end of the '96 season that he lost) and with only 8 wins in 46 competitive matches in charge of the club.  It was also the second shortest tenure for a non-interim coach, only Houghton's 31 games in 1996 was shorter.

So very much out with the bad and, hopefully, in with the good.  For now club legend Conor Casey has the reins and he was the logical choice.  Of all the assistants only two of them, Casey and GK coach Chris Sharpe, were not brought in by Hudson from his prior jobs and Sharpe splits time between the first team and working with the Academy keepers.  Combined with his top 3 all-time player standing (Pablo and Balboa being the other two) and for an interim role he's an easy choice.

Note, I said interim.  Let's talk about the full time role.  Padraig Smith has the biggest decision of his career ahead of him.  He has to get the right coach this time or this club is in deep trouble for a long, long time.  Smith has two options.  With many of the top leagues ending their seasons in the next couple of weeks Smith could already have targets lined up and be planning to hire somebody in the next few weeks.  The other option is to let Casey handle the rest of the 2019 season and hire the coach in the offseason.  Honestly I think this could go either way an neither option would shock me.  The only thing that would be surprising is hiring somebody before the end of the season but after, say, July 4th.  If I had to put my money on something I'd go with a quick hire.

So who should fill that role?  Not Conor Casey.  Well, with one exception.  If Casey has the club for the rest of the season and somehow makes a miracle run into the playoffs he can have the job.  Short of that however we should be looking for somebody for more experience.  After Hudson, Pablo, Pareja, and Smith, all having essentially no club head coaching experience we need to hire somebody who's run a club before, preferably successfully.  Despite what some people like to claim there's actually a number of selling points for the Rapids job.  One, there's nowhere to go but up.  Two, there is a lot of dead weight rolling of the roster at the end of the season allowing a chance to build the team the new coach wants.  Three, two big DP spots will be open going into 2020.  That's a great chance to shape the future of a club.  But it also shows the biggest risk to the club at this point.  A bad coaching hire and/or bad DP signings could block this club from moving forward for a long time.

A couple of names are already floating around out there.  The two most notable ones are Josh Wolff and Eric Wynalda.  I don't particularly like either pick.  Wolff might be a good coach but never having been a head coach before we don't really know.  Wynalda's actual results don't match his hype.  He's never spent more than one season with his team and his "big" successes were building a team specifically to make USOC runs, not play full league seasons.

I'm sure we'll hear more names as time goes on and we'll be talking about the most likely of them here.  For now though its a new start to 2019 for the Rapids, lets see if we can put a run together with this bounce.

Hudson Out, Casey In?

Multiple rumors have broken this morning that Hudson has been fired and Casey is now interim manager.  First long-time reporter Marco Cummings tweeted that the Rapids and Padraig Smith have scheduled a major announcement today.  Specifically Smith and the Rapids, not Hudson.  Cummings has since deleted that tweet.  Rapids Rabbi has just tweeted that sources are telling him Hudson has been fired and Casey is now in charge.  More on this tonight when, presumably, we'll have official news.