One Move Made, One Move (At Least) Left

By tomorrow at 6pm MT the Rapids have to be roster compliant.  That means they need to figure out how to fix 8 internationals into 6 international slots.  Today came word of the first of those moves in the news that Sam Nicholson received his green card.  That means we have 7 internationals to fit into 6 international slots, which means one more move is coming tomorrow.

There's Twitter chatter that there will be a press release tomorrow about the move and that it does not involved trading for an additional international slot.  For now lets assume the chatter is accurate.  What options does that leave?

1. Somebody else gets a green card - unlikely, there was no press release for Nicholson so why would there be one tomorrow?  Unless is was a release for both of them, but the Rapids haven't done press releases for green cards in the past.
2. We trade an international to another MLS team - also unlikely, there's been no rumors of that and of the internationals we're likely to be willing to give up (Blomberg, Gashi, Wilson) there's not a lot of value.
3. We sell an international to a team outside of MLS - equally unlikely, same issues with player value and with a number of windows closed for other leagues there aren't a lot of options.
4. We loan an international to a team - possible, though most likely to MLS or USL since the transfer window applies to loans as well.  If we were to go this route I would expect it would be a short-term loan while we wait for an additional green card to process.  Somthing like Shinyashiki to the Springs.
5. We buy out an international's contract an release them - this is the most likely move I believe.  It solves the problem for the whole season, it clears up cap space, and there are a couple of internationals that are unlikely to feature much this season.

So assuming the final option is the one they go with, who is it going to be?  We can rule out Mezquida, Price, Shinyashiki, and Smith as they are all core pieces to the 2019 plan.  That leaves Blomberg, Gashi, and Wilson.  I doubt its Gashi, if you're going to make that big of a move you make it at the beginning of the offseason so you can use that cap space.  So really it comes down to two:

• Blomberg - On ~$250K salary that would have to be bought out but will be out of contract next season
• Wilson - On ~$550K salary that goes through 2020 (2021 is a team option year) and both years would have to be bought out

I think the key to this decision is the rule that the first buyout of the offseason is "free" in that it doesn't hit the cap.  Any other buyout in an offseason or any in-season buyout hits the cap, as we saw with Aigner last season.  So the Rapids could cheaply buy out Blomberg and free up a little cap space, or bite off a bigger chunk with Wilson and free up space both this year and next with no penalty.  This would also allow them to buy out Blomberg in the middle of the season if necessary with a minimal cap hit (whatever is left of his 2019 contract).

I think tomorrow they'll announce they bought out Danny Wilson's contract to get to roster compliance.

Game By Game Prediction

I'm going to try something new this year and go out on a limb and predict each game before the season starts.  Not score or goal-scorers but result.  Obviously the further we get away from the first game on Saturday the less sure I get of my predictions, as injuries, summer transfer window moves, team morale, etc. can have a big influence on how a season plays out.  Still, lets see where we end up.

Game 1 - Portland - Draw - 1 pt
Game 2 - @Seattle - Loss
Game 3 - Kansas City - Draw - 2 pts
Game 4 - @Dallas - Win - 5 pts
Game 5 - Houston - Win - 8 pts
Game 6 - @Orlando - Draw - 9 pts
Game 7 - Seattle - Draw - 10 pts
Game 8 - DC - Draw - 11 pts
Game 9 - @Chicago - Draw - 12 pts
Game 10 - @Atlanta - Loss
Game 11 - Vancouver - Win - 15 pts
Game 12 - FSL - Win - 18 pts
Game 13 - @LAG - Loss
Game 14 - Columbus - Win - 21 pts
Game 15 - @Philadelphia - Loss
Game 16 - Cincinnati - Win - 24 pts
Game 17 - Minnesota - Win - 27 pts
Game 18 - @Vancouver - Draw - 28 pts
Game 19 - LAFC - Loss
Game 20 - New England - Win - 30 pts
Game 21 - @Portland - Loss
Game 22 - NYCFC - Loss
Game 23 - @San Jose - Draw - 32 pts
Game 24 - Montreal - Win - 35 pts
Game 25 - San Jose - Win - 38 pts
Game 26 - @Minnesota - Loss
Game 27 - @Houston - Loss
Game 28 - @FSL - Draw - 39 pts (and a Rocky Mountain Cup)
Game 29 - @RBNY - Loss
Game 30 - LAG - Draw - 40 pts
Game 31 - @Toronto - Loss
Game 32 - @Kansas City - Loss
Game 33 - Dallas - Win - 43 pts
Game 34 - @LAFC - Loss

11-10-13 for 43 points.  That would put us right on the average for a 7th placed team in a 34 game season, so on the cusp of the playoffs.  That seems like a reasonable prediction for the season.  Its going to be an ugly ending though, other than the FSL and Dallas games I don't see any "easy" games in the last couple of months, most of which is on the road.  If we don't rack up the points early, particularly between games 4 and 9, the season could go south quickly.  If we aren't at least at 10 points after 10 games I don't see us making the playoffs without a major, and unlikely, midseason move.

Rapids Sign Opare & Final Preseason Result

The long rumored signing of Kofi Opare was made official today as he signed a one year deal with the team  His addition gives us needed depth as center back as Ford and Smith both look likely to be unavailable this weekend.  It also gives us 27 signed players with only draftee Jacob Hauser-Ramsey left in camp unsigned (other than the Academy players).  If he's going to be signed I'm guessing we'll hear in the next couple of days.

Beyond that we should expect a couple of more roster moves this week seeing that we're at 8 internationals against 6 international slots.  We're going to need to move some players, trade for some slots, or get some green cards to make our roster compliant by the end of the week.  If I had to bet I expect a green card will come through soon and I wouldn't be shocked if we buy an international out of a contract by the end of the week.

Also this weekend the Rapids played their last preseason game, against the Galaxy.  They easily handled the Galaxy 3-1, with a goal by Kamara and two by Rubio (Zlatan got LA's goal).  The starting lineup was:

Kamara - Rubio

Feilhaber

Mezquida - Acosta

Bassett

Serna - Wynne - Sjoberg - Rosenbery

Howard

Expected starters Vines, Smith, and Ford were out due to injury.  No word as to why Price didn't play.  Blomberg, Shinyashiki, and Nicolson came on as subs.  I would expect a similar lineup on Saturday against Portland, with Price playing in Bassett's place.

The next morning the reserves played LA and got the reverse score with the Rapids goal scored by Nikki Jackson.  Irwin and Vines, both expected to miss these games, started.  Vines went 50 minutes before being replaced by Hauser-Ramsey and Irwin played the whole game.  Wilson, Blomberg, Boateng, Hundley, Jackson, and Shinyashiki were the other signed players to get time (all went 90).

Gashi, Opare, Price, and Rawls were the only signed players not listed as injured who got no playing time between the games.  Rawls as the third keeper is no surprise but I'm not sure what that means about the other three.  Opare was just signed so obviously the lack of playing time wasn't hurting him, but I'm not sure why Price and Gashi got no time.

Acosta, Rosenberry, and Rubio Signed To Long-Term Deals

So I had two of the three right in my prediction, but it was Rubio instead of Ford that got the contract extension.  Big news to tie up three of our big young players to long-term deals.  The exact details:

Kellyn Acosta - 2019-2021 guaranteed, 2022 and 2023 on team option deals
Keegan Rosenberry - 2019-2022 guaranteed
Diego Rubio - 2019-2022 guaranteed

Prior to these signings 2020 was a team option year for Acosta, Rosenberry was out of contract at the end of 2019, and Rubio was on a team option year in 2019 (with an unknown status for 2020).

Some Rapids fans are already questioning why we would sign two players who have yet to play a competitive game in burgundy and blue to long-term deals.  Beyond the concerns over their contract status, where at least one of them if not both could walk away for nothing at the end of the season, these are two young players with great interest within the league and (in Rosenberry's case) interest from the National Team.  Worst case scenario these guys don't fit in and we can pretty easily flip them to another MLS team.  More likely though these three are core members of the Rapids for the next 3 seasons with possibilities to sell them down the line.

Great long-term planning from the Front Office tonight.

Contract Extension Signing Live Tonight At 6

In yesterday's post we talked about the report of Acosta's new deal and the fact that the Rapids had two more players they were trying to sign to long-term extensions.  Well it looks like we'll find out who the other two are tonight as 3 players will sign their contract extensions in a live stream on the team's social media accounts tonight at 6pm, including a Q&A afterwards.  I'll have a summary of the event later tonight but I wanted to get the info out there for anyone who wants to watch.

BTW, my bet for the 3 are Acosta, Ford, and Rosenberry.