On to 2026

Well, the season ended about how I predicted.  Dallas and FSL getting in, us missing out.  For a brief 2 minutes in the second half the Rapids were in a playoff spot, only to once again give out a late goal and only get 1 point.  Story of the season really.

Back on September 12th with 5 games left I pegged the target as 42 points.  Colorado reached 41 points and lost out on the tiebreaker (twice).  42 was the necessary total.  44 would have gotten us a home wild-card game.  For comparison the 9th placed team the last 6 years (ignoring the 2020 COVID mess) has gotten 42-47 points.  The last time the line was 41 was in 2018 when there were only 24 teams.  That means there were 102 less games played in the league, and 200-300 less points distributed.  Any team that failed to make the playoffs in the West this year stunk.

Looking at how Colorado failed to reach the promised land, take a look at this.  This is the point totals of the 4 teams in contention this week against the other 7 teams in the bottom half of the West.

• Dallas: 25
• FSL: 24
• San Jose: 21
• Colorado: 18

No coincidence that order is the order the four teams finished in.  Dropping points against Kansas City, the Galaxy, Dallas, and FSL, all in the last 7 games of the season, is what killed us.

The reality is though, whichever one of these four teams that would have gotten through tomorrow night's wild-card game is just a sacrifice to San Diego in the first round.  Really none of these teams deserved a playoff spot.

So, forward to 2026.  The biggest question looming over the team is will the mini-donuts be back again next season?  No, that's not it.  Its will Chris Armas be back.  For our purposes though, the question is, should Armas be back?

This is a tough call.  Armas clearly understands the importance of culture and even late into the second half on Saturday the players were playing hard and weren't giving up.  Those are points in his favor, as is the fact that he knows the reality of coaching in Colorado and what the challenge is, as well as a knowledge of the current roster.

Stacked against him are the results.  Armas was brought in after Fraser was fired.  Over the course of Robin's time here he averaged 1.4 PPG.  That was considered not good enough and we moved on (to be fair, it was clear Fraser had lost the locker room).  Armas, in his two seasons, has averaged 1.34 PPG.  Not an improvement over Fraser.  The difference is about 2 points a season, exactly what we missed the playoffs by.

There's also Armas' lineups and tactics.  His defensive strategies are awful.  Over the last two seasons the Rapids have given up 116 goals, despite having multiple TAM players on the back line.  The only other two years that we gave up that many goals were the two years that started with Anthony Hudson in charge.  Not somebody you want to be compared to.  There's also the problem of ending the season regularly playing Cole Bassett, arguably our best midfielder after Mihailovic left, out of position.  Cole is not a left winger, he's best as a 8.  Paxton Aaronson also talked after Saturday's game how he's more used to playing the 6/8 role, not the 10.  These are very questionable choices in must win games.

The final piece to this puzzle is Padraig Smith.  He's fired three coaches (Mastroeni, Hudson, Fraser) and hired their replacements, with a significant lack of success.  While he wouldn't have to fire Armas, since Chris is out of contract, does he deserve a chance to hire a fourth coach?  Its hard to say he does.  But is that a good reason to keep a coach that seems to be spinning his wheels a bit?

In the end I think I come down on the side of moving on from Armas.  While the intangibles he brings are important, what matters is results and he's just not getting them.  While I'm loathe at this point to have Smith take another run at a coach I don't see us succeeding next season with Armas in charge.  Since that's the only significant change we are likely able to make this offseason, we have to make it.  In reality though, until there are changes above the coach in the Front Office, namely getting a real, experienced, MLS GM in place, the decision on the coach is not likely to matter much.  Short of getting a Jim Curtain or the like Smith's failed roster building strategy will drive results more than any coaching decision.

I have some business travel coming up so I may be quiet for a bit but I will be back to talk about roster decisions and focuses for next season.  I'm going to try to get the roster decisions in this week before I leave but we'll see.  And I'll tale my lumps reviewing my predictions for 2025 next month once I'm home.

We're Still Alive?

 Somehow FSL and Dallas didn't put us out of our misery last weekend.  Not a total surprise that the Rocky Mountain Cup non-holders struggled in Seattle but I did not see the MLS Cup 2010-losers losing to the Galaxy.

That leaves 4 teams alive for the last two slots on Decision Day.  First, the schedule (all games simultaneous at 7pm on Saturday night):

• Austin (6) @ San Jose
• LAFC (3) @ Colorado
• FSL @ St. Louis (13)
• Dallas @ Vancouver (1)

San Jose and FSL have the advantage of playing teams with nothing on the line (other than Toronto passing St. Louis in the draft order).  Neither of their opponents can change their standing in the West.  Vancouver needs 1 point at home against Dallas to lock up the West (or San Diego not winning.  LAFC can jump San Diego for 2nd if they beat us and San Diego doesn't win, they can also drop to 4th if Minnesota wins and they don't beat us.  The other thing to play for is the final CONCACAF Champions Cup spot, and it will go to whomever finishes highest between San Diego, LAFC, and Minnesota.

The tl;dr version of all that, FSL should be expected to win given they're playing a weak team with nothing on the line and San Jose has a good shot to cause chaos, playing a team with nothing on the line.  Meanwhile Dallas and Colorado are facing teams who will be going all out.

So, what do we need to make the playoffs?

First, we are out with a loss no matter what happens elsewhere.

Second, with a draw we need two of the following three results:

• FSL loses in St. Louis
• Dallas loses in Vancouver
• San Jose does not beat Austin

(We win the tiebreaker with Dallas but lose it to FSL and San Jose)

Third, with a win we need one of the following two results:

• FSL does not win in St. Louis
• Dallas does not win in Vancouver

Getting all three other results with a draw or both other results with a win would mean we not only qualify for the playoffs but would host the wild-card game.

My prediction is that the other results won't matter, as I don't see us getting anything out of LAFC.  If we do somehow pull out a draw however I expect FSL to win and get in.  I think San Jose gets a win as well, and Dallas shuts the door with a draw in Vancouver.  I just can't see us getting the win we would need with that set of other results but if they pull it off I'll admit I was wrong.

Assuming the season ends this weekend we'll move on to the post-mortem in the near future.  If it doesn't then we'll talk playoffs.  Regardless whenever we get to the offseason I'm going to have some things to say about KSE.  As a teaser, recently this quote Matt Mahoney, senior VP of business development for KSE, was published:

One of the unique attributes of Denver is that we have all our major sports teams downtown

The End Is Nigh

 

Well, that could have gone better.  The 1-0 loss in Sandy means that we retained the Rocky Mountain Cup but in every other way it all but ended our season.  Combined with Dallas winning its put us on the ropes and we no longer control our path to the playoffs.  With one game left for us and two games left for Dallas and FSL, this is what needs to happen:

• Colorado beats LAFC AND
• FSL fails to win both their last two games OR
• Dallas fails to win both their last two games

OR

• Colorado draws LAFC AND two of three things happen:
• San Jose doesn't win their final game OR
• FSL loses both their games OR
• Dallas loses both their games

To finish the season Dallas goes to the Galaxy and Vancouver, FSL goes to Seattle and St. Louis, and San Jose hosts Austin.  And of course we host LAFC.  While I can see Dallas losing to Vancouver and FSL losing to Seattle they'll both be solid favorites in their other two games.  I expect Dallas to beat the Galaxy in LA this weekend and if FSL can pull off an upset in Seattle we'll be eliminated before we take the field against LAFC.

The reality is that even if a miracle happens and we slide into the post season we'll almost certainly have to go to Dallas or Sandy again, and we just lost in both places in the last 3 weeks.  It would almost certainly be a one and done for a team that just looks lost at this point.  We'll get into this more once we're officially eliminated but you have to wonder if the lack of a finalized extension for Armas is a sign that the FO was waiting to see how the playoff push went, and it didn't go well.

Playoff Hopes On The Line In The Dark Place

Since last week's post more results have gone against us in the playoff race.  Obviously our draw was not ideal, but San Jose and FSL also won and Dallas got a draw.  Houston did lose but they were always a long-shot anyway.  This leaves the Rapids still in 8th place but the margin has significantly decreased.  San Jose is only 2 points back, Dallas is also 2 points back, with a game in hand, and FSL is 3 points back with a game extra to play.  Meanwhile Austin and Portland are both 4 points ahead, and Austin has an extra game left too.

I'm still thinking 42 will be enough for somebody to get into the playoffs, but it may come down to tiebreakers.  The Rapids are at 40 so one win should be enough.  Potentially 2 draws would be too but that's a lot less sure after this past weekend.

This weekend the Rapids face FaKe SaLt LaKe at KKK Slogan Field in Utah.  A loss would not only keep us from that playoff total, it would allow FSL to pass us in the standings and still have that game in hand.  A win would put us at a point that FSL could only pass us if they won their final two games and we lost to LAFC, and even then just on a tiebreaker.  A draw leaves us in limbo, not enough points to feel confident in the playoffs and within 3 points of both FSL and Dallas with their games in hand.

When it comes to the Rocky Mountain Cup things are a little more in our favor.  With our one goal win earlier this season the pressure is on FSL to get a result to claim the Cup.  A Rapids win or draw means the Cup stays in Colorado.  Even a one goal loss means we keep the Cup as the teams would be tied on points and goals.  Only a multi-goal loss would allow that group from the wrong side of the Divide to claim the trophy.

In the end we, once again, really need a result this weekend.  I really don't think relying on getting a result at home against LAFC is smart.  The idea of Son and Bouanga running at Holding and Maxso is not something that fills me with hope.  So we need 3 points in Sandy this weekend, in a matchup where we historically struggle late in the season.  In the last 10 late-season Rocky Mountain Cup matchups (Sept/Oct games), dating back to 2010, the Rapids have won 2 of them and drawn 2 others.  That means 6 wins for FSL, many of them crushing our last hopes of the season.  Notable though one of the two Rapids wins was the 5-0 beatdown in Sandy in September of 2020.  So it is possible.

Playoff Race - 3 Games To Go

Ok, with 3 games to go the group above is who the Rapids can theoretically pass or be passed by. Note that chart includes a point for Portland as they are currently tied with Vancouver in the 34th minute, so they could drop back a point or add two more by the time you read this.  Realistically though, we aren't catching Seattle or Austin, and probably not Portland.  This is really about who can catch us more than who we can catch.

Lets look at what each of the 4 teams behind us has left:

Dallas: They go to Portland this weekend, then a home and home over the following two weekends with the Galaxy before finishing in Vancouver.

That two-legged tie with LA is bad news for the Rapids.  At this point the only thing the defending champs have to play for is to make up 3 points on Montreal to avoid the Wooden Spoon, something that might be clinched before the second Galaxy-Dallas game.  Also Dallas is hot and Portland only has 2 league wins since mid-July (though they just went up 1-0 as I type this).  Getting the Timbers on short rest is a bonus for them.

Houston: The Dynamo are in Nashville this weekend, then host San Diego before finishing in KC.

I don't see them making the playoffs.  Maybe they get a win in Nashville this weekend, though it seems unlikely.  San Diego should crush them, and by the time they het to KC they may already be eliminated, though that should be 3 points if there's any fight left.

San Jose: A trip down the coast to San Diego, a trip up the coast to Vancouver, and then Austin at home to finish out the season.  The Earthquakes are toast.  They'll be lucky to get another win.

FSL: The Utah Soccer Club has Austin in Utah this weekend, then the Rocky Mountain Cup finale next weekend.  After that its a trip to Seattle and they finish in St. Louis.

I expect them to struggle in Seattle but cruise in St. Louis unless things have gone bad and they've been eliminated.  A win this weekend over Austin is certainly possible.  And I expect nothing but pain from our trip to Utah.

Of course while all of this is going on we've got Minnesota this weekend, the aforementioned trip to the dark place, and LAFC at home on Decision Day.

I think Houston and San Jose are out of it barring meltdowns by at least two other other three.  This is a battle between Dallas, FSL, and us for the two wild card spots.  Given their schedule if Dallas beats Portland this weekend I can see them catching Portland and forcing them into the wild-card bout Portland won't drop all the way out of the playoffs.

I still think 42 points are enough to make the playoffs, I am no longer sure we can get to 42 though.  This could very well come down to the result next weekend in Sandy.  The winner is probably going to make the playoffs and the loser may very well not.  We can't count on any points after this weekend given our history in Utah and LAFC's quality.  If we can beat Minnesota we should be in.  If we can't its feels like we're going to be on the outside looking in.