Rapids To Host Boca Juniors July 24th

The Rapids have announced that they'll be playing a friendly against Argentina's Boa Juniors on July 24th at 7pm at the Dick.  Ticket information will be released on Friday.  Really, they should be giving the season ticket holders their tickets free as a makeup for this debacle of a season.

Depending on pricing I may or may not go.  While it would be cool to see a storied team like Boca Juniors I'm not sure I want to pay a lot to either see the Rapids gets steamrolled or play against the C squad from Argentina on a Tuesday night.

Game Tomorrow - Don't Care

I was going to write a basic game preview tonight but then Rapids Rabbi published this.  No criticism of Mark, its a good article with interesting information.  My issue is this quote from Hudson:

We know the changes we need to make. It’s going to take a couple of transfer windows. It’s going to take more time on the training pitch.

That's a B.S. excuse in a league where Chicago went from 31 to 55 points in one offseason.  Where Atlanta came in as an expansion team and put up 55 points in an inaugural season.  Where LAFC is on pace for 58 points this year and they have yet to play a home game in their first season.  This isn't a case where we've got leadership stuck with a mess not of their own making.  Every player on this roster (except maybe Serna) signed their contract while Smith was either part of the player management team or GM.  Hudson is Smith's picked coach to take all these new players we got this offseason and mold them into a playoff team this year, by the standards they themselves set.

Essentially the Rapids are once again playing the fans for suckers, promising that with just enough time they'll build something we can be proud to support.  In reality, these statements are code for "Smith and Hudson don't know what the hell they are doing".  Until they do, or they're replaced with somebody who does, this team will be a laughing stock and not worth the time I've been spending writing about them.  Expect nothing but news analysis here until something changes.

9 Times

Yep, we've lost 9 times in a row.  We could talk about this game but we've talked about this game before many times.  No offense, defensive mistakes, loss.  We are now tied for the 3rd longest losing streak in post-Shootout league history and the 2nd longest losing streak in all competitions in league history (10 is the record for both, set by FSL in 2005).  Our 0.7 expected goals on Saturday is the third lowest since they started tracking the stat.  We are not just bad, we are historically horrible.

Really, there's not much more to say.  This is another wasted season by the Rapids with the same excuses and the same promises.  Abbie Mood over at Burgundy Wave said it best in her article today:

We just want someone—anyone—to say: “We messed up. We over-promised and under-delivered and here are the steps for how we plan to fix it.”

Which is exactly what I've been asking for for literally years at this point.

Houston, We Have Many Problems

Tomorrow we try to avoid our team record setting 8th league loss in a row (and record extending 9th in all competitions) in Houston.  Game time is 7pm and the game is on Altitude.  C38 will be at the Celtic for this one.

Badji is out due to yellow card accumulation.  Ford is still out injured, Hairston and Sjoberg are questionable.  Houston has 6 players out injured, including Jared Watts, one questionable, and one out on international duty.

I could throw a lineup out there but I think we all know its going to be the same 3-5-2 with players that shouldn't be starting.  Until that changes its not worth putting much into these previews.

Prediction: 2-0 loss.  Houston has one of the best offenses in the league and I don't see our broken defense stopping them.  Our best attacker is suspended so I can't see us scoring either.

Aigner Released

You know yesterday when I said I wasn't sure how much I'd write but I'd cover news?  Well, we have news.  The Rapids announced today that the club and Stefan Aigner had agreed to a mutual termination of his contract, effective immediately.

This brings to an end the issues with Aigner which, as more and more stories leak out, appear to have been caused as much by him as Hudson.  Players were calling Aigner out for his lack of effort, he reportedly had multiple run-ins with Hudson, and generally never appeared to do anything this season but pick up a paycheck.  I'm sure as time goes by we'll hear more from both sides but whatever happened, it was bad and the faster the Rapids could move on the better.

MLS rules don't allow salary relief for a contract terminated mid-season.  Whatever buyout was agreed on still hits our cap for this year.  We do remove Aigner's cap hit in 2019 and 2020 with this move though.  Aigner was due around $2 million through 2020 and I can't see him giving that up for free just to get out of the contract.  Unless he already has a new deal lined up somewhere I assume he got something for agreeing to leave early, but obviously not the full $2 million.  Whatever that is will still hit our cap this year.

So as far as this season goes, barring any future info, all we really get back is an open roster spot.  Since Aigner got his green card in the offseason this doesn't even free up an international spot.  It does remove a problem in the locker room though and lets everyone move on, so in the end it was the right move.

Hey Hudson

Really, I'm done at this point.  There's no analysis to be done with this team.  We just got shutout by a USL expansion team and couldn't put a shot on goal.  We're horrible and this is easily the low point in team history.

We're on the longest losing streak ever and its not like there's light at the end of the tunnel.  When we lost 7 near the end of 2014 we knew we had a rookie coach that was left a mess by Pareja leaving and the FO wasting the offseason before giving him the job a week before the season started.  We also had hope that with the end of the season near there was a chance we could fix the problems in the offseason (we didn't, but we had hope).

What do we have now?  12 games into a rebuild directed by Smith with coach hand picking players.  Players that are clearly not MLS quality.  The coach has a 3 year deal and we still have over a year and a half on Pablo's deal to pay off.  KSE isn't firing anyone until that's taken care of.  We're out of the CCL without a win, we're out of the USOC without a win, and we're out of playoff contention with only 2 wins in the first 12 games.  There is no light at the end of the tunnel, just a long slog through the rest of this season and 2019 before we can get some staff (and player) contracts off the books and maybe return to being a minimally competent MLS team in 2020.

So I don't know how often I'll write here in the near future.  There's just so many times you can throw your hands up and say WTF?!?! before it becomes a chose instead of fun.  Certainly game previews and reviews are going to be abbreviated if not skipped completely.  Any actual news will be covered, but I don't expect a lot of that.

For those of you that are willing to slog through this with me, I'll see you at the games and in the forums.  for those of you who are walking away, I completely understand.

Will The U.S. Open Cup Be A Breath Of Fresh Air?

The Rapids are in Nashville tomorrow night to see some old friends in the Open Cup.  Kickoff is at 6:3-pm MDT.  Fleming will be calling the game for Altitude radio, and the U.S. Soccer site says there will be a live stream.  The team is saying all the right things about taking this competition seriously this year, but I don't have to detail how many times we've heard that over and over again.  We haven't made it past the Round of 16 since 2006.

In my opinion the odds are against us.  First combine a team in a tailspin with an organization that doesn't take this competition seriously.  Then you put them on the road against a team getting their first shot ever at a MLS team in competition as they prepare to make the jump to MLS.  Then for the cherry on top, Nashville is coached by former Rapids coach Gary Smith and has Matt Pickens and Kosuke Kimura on the roster (not to mention 20178 draftee Alan Winn who skipped MLS to play in the USL).  Those three are going to want to show the Rapids what they're missing.

I never make roster or game predictions for the Open Cup, as I'm never really sure what mentality we're taking into the game.  If we put out a true best lineup (not what Hudson has been running out there during the 7 game losing streak) we should be able to beat Nashville.  Anything less than that though and I expect to lose.

Record Setting Night

Credit to Michael P for the picture

With another loss on Friday night the Rapids tied their worst ever losing streak (7 games) and their worst ever home losing streak (4 games).  The latter was set in 2001, where the league played a 10 minute golden-goal overtime and 3 of the 4 losses back then were by 1 goal.  So there's a very good chance this is the first time the Rapids have been losing at the end of 90 minutes in 4 straight home games.  (The 7 game losing streak was in 2014).

We could spend time rehashing the game but there's no point.  Its generally the same issues we've seen all through the losing streak.  While not as bad as the NYCFC or Portland games it still wasn't great and our opposition was significantly weaker than those other two teams, which might be the reason.  Our season is over.  The Bodmer Line is now at 1.72, which is higher than our pts/game average in the great 2016 season.  This team is not making the playoffs.

Instead I want to make one point, and one suggestion.  I've been thinking this weekend about what's gone wrong and how to fix it in the short-term.  By "what's gone wrong" I don't mean this season, I mean over the last few years it feels like for the most part the Rapids haven't even been competitive.  Colorado (2016 aside) has never been great, but for a long time we were solidly average.  Lately though we haven't even been that.  So I decided to take a look at the point totals across the league over the last few seasons.  I decided to start with 2012.  After the 2011 season Gary Smith's contract wasn't renewed, Jeff Plush was fired, Tim Hinchey was put in charge, and that was the start of the Rapids attempting to move up to "MLS 2.0" (or whatever you want to call it).  This was the era that brought in DP's, affiliations with Charlotte, homegrown players, etc. and it feels like an obvious line to draw between the "old" Rapids and "new" Rapids.

Total points since 2012:
RBNY: 355
Kansas City: 345
.
.
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San Jose: 287
Toronto & Chicago: 275
DC: 271
Montreal: 266
Philly: 263
Colorado: 256
(this only includes teams that played in every season from 2012 to now)

That's right, the Rapids have been the worst MLS team since 2012.  99 points behind the leaders RBNY.  31 points behind the next closest Western Conference team.

Clearly all the attempts at #OneClub, "attacking soccer, and The Rapids Way have been failures.  Say what you want about the quality of "MLS 1.0" but at least we were competitive.

So, how do we fix this?  Long-term the options are obvious.  Sign a competent coach and let him build a decent roster.  We also know that's not going to happen for a couple of years at least.  So working with what we have, here's my suggestion:

1. Do whatever it takes to get Aigner's salary off the books during the summer transfer windows.  Let him go on a free, trade him for peanuts, whatever.  Freeing up the salary cap space is more important than anything we could get for him.
2. Drop the obviously failing 3-5-2 and go back to a 4-4-2.  Either GK is fine (I'd go with MacMath just to mix things up), Defense: Hairston, Ford, Sjoberg, Castillo:  Midfield: Price, Blomberg, Nicholson, ? Forward: Badji, Boli
3. Use the freed up cap room and the DP spot to sign a #10 to fill the hole in midfield this summer.  This will hurt KSE but they need to do something to get out of this hole.

The downsides to this plan are the amount of money on the bench (Howard, Smith, Wilson, Gashi, Mason) and the ability of Castillo and Hairston to play in a flat back 4.  I think they're better as wingbacks.

The upside is that I think this roster can at least be competitive in games.  We won't make the playoffs regardless but we won't be embarrassed.

If the #10 signing is a bridge too far the Rapids could also move to a 4-3-3.  Play Badji, Boli, and Mason up front, put Price and Azira in midfield with somebody like Blomberg (or maybe Gashi) in front of them, and use the same back line.  This lineup won't be as strong but still better than what we're seeing.

Man of the Match: The baby bird that entertained 108 for the first 15 minutes of the second half.  He had great positioning in our defensive half, moved well, and was able to avoid any fouls by being run over by Vancouver attackers.  Generally a better performance than we've seen from anyone this season.