Silly Season Starts In About Sixteen Hours

Now that MLS Cup has completed, and congrats to Seattle for their win*, the offseason can really get started.  It will kick off tomorrow at 11am MT as rosters are unfrozen for a little over 2 days before the expansion draft next week (the 19th).  Then things come fast and furious through the end of the month, with options having to be decided on by the 21st, waiver draft and free agency opening on the 25th, the first round of the Re-Entry draft on the 26th, then after we all fill up on turkey the second round of the Re-Entry Draft on Dec. 3rd.  Then things ease up until the Superdraft on a yet to be announced date in January, though player deals can happen at any time between Dec. 3rd and the start of the 2020 season.

So lets look at what the Rapids need to do this offseason.  We've got, reportedly, two-thirds of our salary cap freeing up and all our DP slots open.  Technically this means we could sign 3 DPs but remember, the third DP comes at a cost of $250K of GAM and the loss of the Rapids share of the $250K the other teams with 3 DPs pay.  So about $400K right now.  If they sign a youth DP (23 years old or younger) they don't have to pay the $250K but they do lose their cut of everyone else's.

I'm going to break this down by position and include, as much as I can, the roster status of our current players in the position who are likely to see playing time in 2020.  Not all contract lengths are publicly available though, and I will note where that's the case.

Goalkeepers:
Clint Irwin - Likely under contract
Irwin was given a new contract when he was acquired last year.  I wouldn't be surprised if he got a two year deal and is still under contract, but that's just an educated guess.  Regardless with Howard's retirement there's a hole waiting to be filled for a starting keeper.  Safe bet that's not going to be Rawls who spent the season in the Springs.  Irwin is a serviceable MLS keeper and we shouldn't spend too much effort or time looking for an upgrade, but if an opportunity to make a good signing at a decent price presents itself I have no issue with Irwin continuing to be the backup next season.  There is an unsourced rumor on social media that we're showing interest in LAFC keeper Tyler Miller, who LAFC is not likely to re-sign, but Nashville is also looking at him.  Based on this season he'd be an upgrade to Irwin but I don't know how real this interest is.  Regardless look for us to sign another keeper, likely a backup, to get to three.

Outside backs:
Keegan Rosenberry - Under contract through 2022
Sam Vines - Under contract through 2020
Sebastian Anderson - Under contact through 2023
Deklan Wynne - Option year/out of contract
I included Wynne as its pretty clear that he's done here and his contract allows him to be released with no penalty.  As far as starters are concerned, Rosenberry and Vines have locked down the spots.  We should sign a replacement for Wynne as a solid backup, probably ahead of Anderson in the pecking order, but I don't expect any other movement at this position.

Center backs:
Lalas Abubakar - Loan complete
Tommy Smith - Option year
Kortne Ford - Unknown
Axel Sjoberg - Under contract through 2020
Danny Wilson - Under contract through 2020
Yuck.  There's nothing good in that list.  Since we know Smith is already renegotiating with the Rapids we know his option wasn't picked up.  So we don't have a single MLS quality starting CB under contract for 2020 at the moment.  I don't think we can assume Kort is going to bounce back from his injury at a starter level, though I would love it if he did.  Wilson showed better as a d-mid than a CB and while he's fine as a backup in the back line he should not be starting.  Axel's time has come and gone sadly.

So expect significant moves here, likely starting with signing Abubakar permanently from Columbus and bringing Smith back at a lower number.  On top of that I expect us to sign a starting quality CB with the idea that Smith would be the primary backup, not a starter.  It might be a place where we sign a DP, but that could be a stretch.

Defensive/box-to-box midfielders:
Jack Price - Under contract through 2021
Kellyn Acosta - Under contract through 2021
Cole Bassett - Unknown
Dillon Serna - Option year
Bassett has only finished his second season so I'm pretty sure he's still under contract, but I couldn't find any specific length for his deal.  We're actually fairly well off in this position.  Price was the team MVP and Bassett and Acosta can both play the "non-attacking" midfielder position.  We might add a fourth for depth reasons but I don't expect a major move here.  Sadly I think Serna will be let go after this season, he needs a new environment at this point.

Wingers:
Sam Nicholson - Unknown
Jonathan Lewis - Under contract through 2021
Andre Shinyashiki - Unknown
Nicholson has been in MLS for 2.5 years, which likely means he's on an option year for 2020, but there's no reporting of his contract terms.  Shinyashiki is clearly going to be under contract for his second season as a pro, but I don't know how long his first contract is for beyond that.  Overall this position is strong but thin.  We have 3 starting quality players for 2 spots, so I wouldn't be shocked to see Nicholson moved if the right option came up.  Otherwise I expect some sort of depth signing but probably no starter move.

Attacking midfielders:
Nicholas Mezquida - Out of contract
Mezquida was signed to a two year deal with a third option year by Vancouver before the 2017 season.  Unless the Rapids game him a contract extension when they traded for him he's out of contract and there's not much behind him.  I would expect the team to invest heavily in this position this offseason, probably re-signing Mezquida as well as signing a DP in this area.  We could play an 'empty bucket' with two wingers and Price/Acosta at the bottom of the bucket but I find that unlikely.

Forwards:
Kei Kamara - Option year
Diego Rubio - Under contract through 2022
Our top two strikers are back and we have decent depth behind them in that both Lewis and Shinyashiki are comfortable playing forward.  That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant moves here.  There are rumors that there's interest in Rubio from overseas, if the offer is right I can see the Rapids selling and then bringing in a DP striker.  Its even possible that for the right offer Kamara could be let go and replaced the same way.  As good as Kei was last year he is 35 years old and at some point soon his decline is going to hit.  We wouldn't want to let him go for free and without a solid plan to replace him, but if moving his almost million-dollar salary is the difference between signing a good young striker or not I can see us moving on.

So there you go.  Expect heavy investment at center back and attacking mid, and some noticeable work at striker.  Don't be surprised if Irwin doesn't start the season opener in 2020, but be somewhat shocked if our outside players aren't some combination of Rosenberry, Vines, Nicholson, Lewis, or Shinyashiki.

* - Long time readers will know that Seattle is not my favorite team, despite Seattle being my hometown.  Sadly I lost a cousin this week who was a die-hard Seattle sports fan, across all sports.  He would have loved to see the Sounders win MLS Cup at home today and for him I rooted for Seattle while watching the game.  I know his sister and brother-in-law took his nieces to the game today so I'm glad they got to have a good time while they deal with the loss.