Thursday, June 11, 2020

"Random" Draw Generates a Very Fixed Result

Today's "random" draw for the "MLS Return to Play tournament" sure had a feel of predestination about it.  I have no evidence to say it was fixed, but the results were very favorable to what MLS would want.

To start the draw MLS announced that Inter Miami was going to be drawn into Orlando's group to make the first game of the tournament a Florida rivalry game.  Everything esle was random.  The Rapids ended up in group D with FSL (seeded, as one of the top teams in 2019), SKC, and Minnesota.  On top of the Rocky Mountain Cup rivalry each of the other groups "randomly" ended up with one known recognized rivalry.  The aforementioned Orlando-Miami matchup in Group A, Seattle-Vancouver in Group B, Toronto-Montreal in Group C, Cincinnati-Columbus in Group E, and LA-LAFC in Group F.  On top of that Philly and NYCFC, two close rivals, ended up in Group A as well, San Jose ended up with two other of the teams they have a minor Heritage Cup competition with (Seattle/Vancouver), adn SKC got their budding rivalry with FSL and what the league has attempted to turn into a rivalry with Minnesota.

Again, there's no evidence to say it was fixed, but the way they did the draw (with a former player having loaded the teams into numbered balls and then a member from each of the seeded teams picking a ball by number, and the convenient results certainly raised a few eyebrows.

Regardless, what's done is done.  We're still waiting to hear the schedule, but we can look at our opponents.  On paper the Rapids got the toughest group based on the two games already played in 2020, with all three undefeated Western Conference teams, plus FSL.  I think group F, with Portland, Houston, and the LA teams is actually a bit harder, but either way its a tough group.  That said, we should be able to get out of it.  I expect 6-7 points, depending on the schedule.  We can beat FSL, and we should beat Minnesota.  SKC will be the tough match depending on when it falls.  If we're both on 6 going into the last match facing each other (and thus both qualified for the knockout rounds) that might make it a bit easier, if its the first match it will be tougher.

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