Good Season Everyone

With last night's loss to FSL (again) and elimination from the Open Cup the 2023 is over for all intents and purposes.  Well, unless you think this team will make a sudden surge in the Leagues Cup.  The Open Cup is over.  The league season comes down tot he Bodmer Line, so lets discuss that.

To remind everyone the Bodmer Line (named after former Class Vi Grand poobah Mark Bodmer, who suggested the metric to me) measures how well (in points per game(PPG)) the Rapids need to play over the rest of the season to reach teh average number of points for the last playoff spot.  In 2023 0 teams make the playoffs, so we're aiming for the average number of points for a 9th placed team.

The problem is, there's only been 5 full seasons where the 9th placed team was something more than last place in on of the conferences (or non-existent).  So we're dealing with a small sample size here.  If you were to take the average point totals for both 9th placed teams in 2017-22, skipping the COVID shortened 2020 season, you get an average of 41 points.  But that number has been steadily increasing over the 5 seasons.  41 points would have made it in 2017, 2018, and for one of the conferences in 2019, but not in 2021 or 2022 (or the remaining conference in 2019).  That suggested to me that as the league expands the point threshold goes up, and we've seen that when the playoff line has been at 5th or 7th, though not as dramatically.  So while the Bodmer Line is officially set at 41 points, my gut tells me that's a soft number and we need to be aiming for 43 or 44.

Even with the goal being 41 points though, the Bodmer Line is already at 1.45 PPG.  If we move it up to 43 points it goes up to 1.55 PPG.  Even at 1.45 though, that would be equivalent of playing at a level that would be the 7th best we've ever played over a full season.  1.55 PPG would be the 4th best ever (behind the 2021 and 2020 seasons under Fraser and the 2016 season under Pablo).  Regardless of what number you use, our current PPG of 0.857 would be the worst season PPG in our history.

So you have a team playing at the worst its ever played and in order for them to have a shot at the playoffs they need to start playing at a level in the top 25% of their seasons all-time.  A team that has only beaten the two teams below them in the table so far this season and just just to the team above them in the table.  Twice, At home.  And they're a rival.  Does that seem like a realistic scenario for 2023?  I can't see this team making that kind of turn around.  Thus, barring a miracle Leagues Cup run, 2023 is over.