Playoff Race - 3 Games To Go

Ok, with 3 games to go the group above is who the Rapids can theoretically pass or be passed by. Note that chart includes a point for Portland as they are currently tied with Vancouver in the 34th minute, so they could drop back a point or add two more by the time you read this.  Realistically though, we aren't catching Seattle or Austin, and probably not Portland.  This is really about who can catch us more than who we can catch.

Lets look at what each of the 4 teams behind us has left:

Dallas: They go to Portland this weekend, then a home and home over the following two weekends with the Galaxy before finishing in Vancouver.

That two-legged tie with LA is bad news for the Rapids.  At this point the only thing the defending champs have to play for is to make up 3 points on Montreal to avoid the Wooden Spoon, something that might be clinched before the second Galaxy-Dallas game.  Also Dallas is hot and Portland only has 2 league wins since mid-July (though they just went up 1-0 as I type this).  Getting the Timbers on short rest is a bonus for them.

Houston: The Dynamo are in Nashville this weekend, then host San Diego before finishing in KC.

I don't see them making the playoffs.  Maybe they get a win in Nashville this weekend, though it seems unlikely.  San Diego should crush them, and by the time they het to KC they may already be eliminated, though that should be 3 points if there's any fight left.

San Jose: A trip down the coast to San Diego, a trip up the coast to Vancouver, and then Austin at home to finish out the season.  The Earthquakes are toast.  They'll be lucky to get another win.

FSL: The Utah Soccer Club has Austin in Utah this weekend, then the Rocky Mountain Cup finale next weekend.  After that its a trip to Seattle and they finish in St. Louis.

I expect them to struggle in Seattle but cruise in St. Louis unless things have gone bad and they've been eliminated.  A win this weekend over Austin is certainly possible.  And I expect nothing but pain from our trip to Utah.

Of course while all of this is going on we've got Minnesota this weekend, the aforementioned trip to the dark place, and LAFC at home on Decision Day.

I think Houston and San Jose are out of it barring meltdowns by at least two other other three.  This is a battle between Dallas, FSL, and us for the two wild card spots.  Given their schedule if Dallas beats Portland this weekend I can see them catching Portland and forcing them into the wild-card bout Portland won't drop all the way out of the playoffs.

I still think 42 points are enough to make the playoffs, I am no longer sure we can get to 42 though.  This could very well come down to the result next weekend in Sandy.  The winner is probably going to make the playoffs and the loser may very well not.  We can't count on any points after this weekend given our history in Utah and LAFC's quality.  If we can beat Minnesota we should be in.  If we can't its feels like we're going to be on the outside looking in.

The Badge, The Players, The Fans Deserve Better - 2 Years Later

2 years ago tonight Centennial 38 walked out of the game in the first half in protest, leaving behind the simple message.  The Badge, The Players, The Fans Deserve Better.  Accompanied by a letter released a couple of days earlier the request was relatively simple.  KSE, invest in your club.  2 years later, have they?

I'm going to split "KSE" into two parts.  Essentially what the Rapids themselves control and what KSE above them can drive.  Coming out of that horrendous season KSE obviously opened the checkbook to acquire players.  We added Djordje Mihailovic, Sam Vines, Zach Steffen, and (eventually) made Rafa Nvarro's loan permanent.  That's on top of our normal offseason moves, trades, etc.  Obviously KSE saw that the team needed to be improved.

Beyond that offseason though, any improvement in the squad has been driven by reinvesting money from selling players (Bombito, Awaziem, and particularly Mihailovic).  And what little improvement has been made off the field has been around the edges with what budget the Rapids themselves can find each season.  The major issues have continued to be ignored by KSE.

To remind everyone of what KSE said in their response two years ago:

On the field we are focused on returning the team to the level of competitiveness we expect and have seen in recent years

Well to be fair, squeaking into the playoffs is traditionally the Rapids' level of competitiveness I don't believe that's what they were claiming they were aiming for. 

Off the field, we have already engaged Legends, Civitas, Perkins & Will, and Turner Construction on a number of feasibility studies and analyses around potential infrastructure projects as we assess a future vision for DICK'S Sporting Goods Park and the club's training environment. We are also actively evaluating additional ways to enhance the gameday experience inside and outside the stadium.

So, how's that going?  Not only has almost nothing happened (as I understand it, the training pitch has been relayed) there have been rumors there were bigger plans that were cancelled this offseason.  If nothing else, Turner Construction is no longer the official KSE construction partner, its now Kiewit.  Meanwhile the scoreboard continues to be a running joke, C38 has had on-going issues with Stadium Ops that have only been solved by getting higher-ups involved on a regular basis, the stadium still lacks basic amenities expected at this point like wi-fi and better food options (though in all seriousness, shout out for getting the mini donuts left) and what small changes the Rapids have been able to scrape together amount to some banners and flags.  Though again, credit to the Rapids for creating the Legends Garden as part of the Balboa retirement ceremony.

Over the next few months, we will be finalizing the master plan for our exciting Victory Crossing Project. When this is ready in early 2024, we will be hosting several open forums with supporters and members of the community to gather feedback on our plans for the club, stadium and entire project.

Right.  It is now (almost) fall of 2025 and there has been no movement on this front, no open forums that I'm aware of and any possible project on this front seems dead.

So needless to say they essentially followed through on none of the things they said they would do in their response to C38's protest.  I'll give them some credit for investing in the team in order to achieve that first goal of competitiveness, it just hasn't worked (and the failures of the FO's roster building strategy are long, well covered here, and best saved for another day).  Outside of that initial burst of investment in the 2023-24 offseason though, there's been nothing.

I do see the Rapids trying to make an effort.  They have invested a large amount of the money they've earned from player sales back into the team.  They spent $1M (in GAM) to get Awaziem and Murphy, $1.125M to get KDP, $1.3M (in GAM) for Atencio, $350K (in GAM) on Philly's draft picks, $500K+ on Lucas Herrington, they have an option to buy Manyoma for $2.25M, and of course they spent $8.2M on Aaronson.  Around 14.5M, give or take.  That leaves around $2M left over from the Bombito, Awaziem, and Mihailovic sales but some of these numbers aren't exact and of course you want something in the bank to make moves this offseason.  And I may have forgotten a significant move.  One more $500K-$1M move would certainly represent a full re-investment of the funds  Away from the roster the Rapids have been trying to improve the stadium experience, its just their hands are tied due to a lack of budget and not being the final decision makers when it comes to the stadium (that would be the DSG Park Stadium Ops division of KSE).

Two years later, The Badge, The Players, The Fans Still Deserve Better.  There's just no evidence KSE is going to do better by them.

I'm Still Here

 

Yes, I'm not dead!  The last couple of weeks I've been on a much needed vacation in Florida so that's why there's been no posting.  BTW, Universal's Epic Universe is very cool and includes a section dedicated to the classic Universal Monsters (Dracula, Frankenstein, Mummy, Wolfman, etc.), thus the image above.

This isn't a game preview, this is an analysis of what's left this season.  Namely that the Rapids have 5 games left:

•  Houston tomorrow night at the Dick
• A trip to Dallas next week
• Minnesota back here to end the month
• The Rocky Mountain Cup showdown in Sandy to start October
• and we finish with LAFC at home after the international break

The Rapids are currently 8th in the West and would host San Jose in the wild-card game if the playoffs started today.  However FSL has two games in hand and could pass us if they win both of them.

Looking at the teams above us, Portland is 3 points ahead of us with a game in hand, Austin is 5 points ahead of us with a game in hand, and LAFC is 5 points ahead of us with three games in hand.  Maybe 7th is reachable if Portland stumbles but that's probably it.  Below us San Jose is 1 point back, Houston is 3 points back, FSL is 5 points back with the two games in hand, and Dallas is 5 points back with a game in hand.  Safe to say SKC, St. Louis, and the Galaxy are very unlikely to catch us.  So we're talking about 5 teams for 2 spots, or 3 teams for 6 if you think Portland could fall back.  And we play 3 of those teams head-to-head to finish the season.

42 points would likely be enough to make the playoffs in the West.  Multiple of SJ/HOU/FSL/DAL would have to play above 1.5 PPG the rest of the way to reach 43 points, and DAL and HOU would have to play closer to 2.0 PPG to do it.  The Rapids currently sit at 36 points, so two more wins should be enough.

Ok, so the target is two wins (and it may take even less than that).  Where are those wins coming from?

• Houston - The Rapids haven't beat Houston since Halloween night 2021.  However before that Houston hadn't beat Colorado since March of 2019.  Maybe its time for the streak to flip again?  At home against a team outside the playoff picture, tomorrow night is the easiest game left on the schedule.  Its a must win.
• Dallas - When it comes to the playoffs Toyota Stadium is DSG Park South.  Does that apply in crunch time before the playoffs?  Dallas hasn't beat us since 2022, and only twice since the beginning of 2020, probably our second best chance for points.  Close to a must win.
• Minnesota - Now the schedule gets tough.  We did just go to the Land of Lakes and beat United, but that surprised everyone.  Historically Minnesota has been better than us, though they've only won once at the Dick.  This may depend on where Minnesota is in playoff positioning, right now they're second but with a long-shot to win the West.  Still I wouldn't want to put our hopes on getting a win in this one.
• FSL - LOL, I don't need to look at the numbers.  We all know what happens to our late-season hopes if we're depending on a result against these guys, especially in Sandy.  At this point assume we'll get 0 points and hope we can keep it a 1 goal loss and keep the RMC, everything else is gravy.  Our one hope is that FSL has stumbled and is out of the running by then.
• LAFC - Lets be honest, LAFC is a much better team than us.  But we have two things going for us in this one.  LAFC has to play 7 games in the 5 weeks leading up to this match, we have to play 4.  Also LAFC hasn't won in Colorado since 2018.  This one will be all about what's on the line for each team.  Have the Rapids clinched yet and can they improve their standing?  Has LAFC clinched home field advantage yet and if not do they still have a chance?  In the end, we shouldn't leave it to the final game.  That's gone bad for us in the past.

42 is absolutely possible for us with this schedule.  But we should really go out and get there by winning the next two.  If we fail to do that we'll be looking at an uphill battle with 3 games that we will likely be the underdog in.  If we can get 4 points out of the next two our odds are still ok.  Less than that and I don't like our chances.