I'm Still Here

 

Yes, I'm not dead!  The last couple of weeks I've been on a much needed vacation in Florida so that's why there's been no posting.  BTW, Universal's Epic Universe is very cool and includes a section dedicated to the classic Universal Monsters (Dracula, Frankenstein, Mummy, Wolfman, etc.), thus the image above.

This isn't a game preview, this is an analysis of what's left this season.  Namely that the Rapids have 5 games left:

•  Houston tomorrow night at the Dick
• A trip to Dallas next week
• Minnesota back here to end the month
• The Rocky Mountain Cup showdown in Sandy to start October
• and we finish with LAFC at home after the international break

The Rapids are currently 8th in the West and would host San Jose in the wild-card game if the playoffs started today.  However FSL has two games in hand and could pass us if they win both of them.

Looking at the teams above us, Portland is 3 points ahead of us with a game in hand, Austin is 5 points ahead of us with a game in hand, and LAFC is 5 points ahead of us with three games in hand.  Maybe 7th is reachable if Portland stumbles but that's probably it.  Below us San Jose is 1 point back, Houston is 3 points back, FSL is 5 points back with the two games in hand, and Dallas is 5 points back with a game in hand.  Safe to say SKC, St. Louis, and the Galaxy are very unlikely to catch us.  So we're talking about 5 teams for 2 spots, or 3 teams for 6 if you think Portland could fall back.  And we play 3 of those teams head-to-head to finish the season.

42 points would likely be enough to make the playoffs in the West.  Multiple of SJ/HOU/FSL/DAL would have to play above 1.5 PPG the rest of the way to reach 43 points, and DAL and HOU would have to play closer to 2.0 PPG to do it.  The Rapids currently sit at 36 points, so two more wins should be enough.

Ok, so the target is two wins (and it may take even less than that).  Where are those wins coming from?

• Houston - The Rapids haven't beat Houston since Halloween night 2021.  However before that Houston hadn't beat Colorado since March of 2019.  Maybe its time for the streak to flip again?  At home against a team outside the playoff picture, tomorrow night is the easiest game left on the schedule.  Its a must win.
• Dallas - When it comes to the playoffs Toyota Stadium is DSG Park South.  Does that apply in crunch time before the playoffs?  Dallas hasn't beat us since 2022, and only twice since the beginning of 2020, probably our second best chance for points.  Close to a must win.
• Minnesota - Now the schedule gets tough.  We did just go to the Land of Lakes and beat United, but that surprised everyone.  Historically Minnesota has been better than us, though they've only won once at the Dick.  This may depend on where Minnesota is in playoff positioning, right now they're second but with a long-shot to win the West.  Still I wouldn't want to put our hopes on getting a win in this one.
• FSL - LOL, I don't need to look at the numbers.  We all know what happens to our late-season hopes if we're depending on a result against these guys, especially in Sandy.  At this point assume we'll get 0 points and hope we can keep it a 1 goal loss and keep the RMC, everything else is gravy.  Our one hope is that FSL has stumbled and is out of the running by then.
• LAFC - Lets be honest, LAFC is a much better team than us.  But we have two things going for us in this one.  LAFC has to play 7 games in the 5 weeks leading up to this match, we have to play 4.  Also LAFC hasn't won in Colorado since 2018.  This one will be all about what's on the line for each team.  Have the Rapids clinched yet and can they improve their standing?  Has LAFC clinched home field advantage yet and if not do they still have a chance?  In the end, we shouldn't leave it to the final game.  That's gone bad for us in the past.

42 is absolutely possible for us with this schedule.  But we should really go out and get there by winning the next two.  If we fail to do that we'll be looking at an uphill battle with 3 games that we will likely be the underdog in.  If we can get 4 points out of the next two our odds are still ok.  Less than that and I don't like our chances.