Wednesday, July 9, 2008

MLS Cup, U.S. Open Cup, Supporters Shield - Where do we stand? Part 2

Sorry for the lack of updates recently, I'm still trying to figure out the daily routine now that I'm working down in LoDo. Since we're at the halfway point I thought I'd reexamine where we are in the race for the big 3 MLS trophies. My first analysis is here.

USOC: Out after loss to KC
MLS Cup: To be decided at the end of the season, currently we are out of a playoff spot by total points, but ranked by points per game we are in the final playoff spot.
Supporters Shield: Goes to the best regular season record

Right now that's New England, with 33 points from 17 games. We're at 19 points from 15 games. Lets do some figuring to see some best case/worst case scenarios.

Best case:

  • Nobody played better than .500 ball the rest of the way, or 1.5 pts/game. That would put New England on top.
  • That gives them 18-19 points the rest of the way.
  • Added to their current 33, that's 51-52 points.

  • Lets say the Rapids play really well and only get 1 draw the rest of the season.
  • That means they would have to go 11-3-1 to top 52 points.

Middle case:

  • New England settles in around 1.7 points/game for the rest of the season and sets the bar.
  • New England would end up with 22 more points.
  • Added to their current 33 they would end with 55 points.

  • The Rapids do draw a couple of games, say 2 games.
  • That means they would have to go 12-1-2 to top 55 points.

Worst case:

  • Everyone but the Rapids keeps their current pts/game average.
  • New England would be the winners with 30 x 1.9 = 58 points

  • The Rapids do eventually draw some games, say 4 games.
  • That means they would be unable to top 58 points. In fact they would have to go 13-1-1 to beat 58 points.

What's all this mean? Barring a complete collapse by the rest of the league the Rapids are essentially out of the running for the Supporters Shield. Our only chance this year to finally win one of the big 3 trophies is MLS Cup.

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