Transfer Window

 July 11th, 2022:

“It's folly, really, to look at these deals in isolation,” Smith began. “This is not the last deal we're going to make in this window. This is the first of what I certainly believe is going to be a very active window for us, and I think really what has to be done is it has to be judged in terms of the total package of what the overall situation looks like, what the roster looks like when we're finished making those moves.”

 “I think when I look at the chances we're creating, I still think we can look at our overall attacking area and say, ‘Okay do we need to bring somebody else in that's going to give us another cutting edge in the attacking third?’ That is something that we're looking at,” Smith said.

“I think long-term we're certainly going to look to bring in another center back to challenge, and we are also now are looking at bringing in an 8 to reinforce the midfield. So from my perspective, it's really about looking at the overall group and what we've got for this year – but also what we're planning for in next year as well.”

“We can buy players down, we've got a lot of flexibility,” Smith said about their DP situation. “We've built up a war chest over the past little while in terms of GAM as well.”

July 28th, 2022: 

A reminder, in case you're not sure how much time is left in the transfer window:

Rapids Drown In Seattle

Its been a rough day, following a rough Rapids match, which is why this is going to be short and sweet.  After taking an early lead Colorado once again feel flat on its face on the road, and its hard to see how this season is anything but a write-off after a performance like that.

Going to skip random musings and just hit some highlights.  Starting with the nice work by Rubio to set up Lewis for the goal.  Barrios gets his only notable contribution of the match on it as well.  At that point, up 1-0 and with a red card coming, the Rapids should have gotten out of my hometown with a point at worst.

The Seattle goal was a mess by the officiating and a mess by the Rapids defense.  Yes the foul call was questionable (at best).  Yes the ref allowing the free kick from 20 yards away was a significant mistake  (so much so that PRO issued a statement today admitting the ref screwed up), but that doesn't excuse getting beaten by a 65 yard cross-field ball and a simple pass for goal.  This is the 5th time this season I believe the Rapids have given up a goal after the 40th minute of the first half.   A lack of mental discipline on defense is killing us.

The red card was a joke, but time-wasting was something emphasized by PRO to the players as a focus this year.  We saw Danny Wilson pick up his fifth yellow last week due to it.  Rowe could hardly argue he didn't know what he was doing intentionally flipping the ball over the adboards.  Do stupid things, win stupid prized.

At that point the Rapids should have bossed the game.  But in reality Seattle out played, out shot, and out scored Colorado while down a man.  That's the 5th time this year we've played a man up, and we've lost 4 of those matches.  The book is out on Colorado, we can't break down a low block.  Get the lead, drop men behind the ball, and watch us struggle.  Its been a problem going back a season or two now and is the biggest flaw of Fraser's strategy.

After this we need a win in NY next week.  A reminder (because I forgot) the game is no longer on Saturday night because RBNY is hosting Barcelona for a friendly and our game was rescheduled for next Tuesday.  Between our game on Saturday night and that match RBNY will have played 3 matches (league match on Sunday night, Open Cup seminfinal coming up on Wednesday night, and the friendly against Barca).  Hopefully they're tired and we're rested.

Man of the Match: Jonathan Lewis.  Scored the goal and saved one off the line.  A +2 on the scoreboard overcomes the rest of his play when up a man.

Colorado Heads To A Beautiful Night In Seattle

Tomorrow night in Seattle is going to be one of those nights that make it worth living through 8 months of rain, warm, sunny, and great views.  Hopefully the Rapids ruin the fans night by taking 3 points home with them.  Its going to be tough but both sides are missing players so the opportunity is there.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 8pm, just 13 more games to go on the Altitude blackout.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz

QUESTIONABLE: M Jack Price

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED: D Danny Wilson (yellow card accumulation)

ONE CAUTION FROM SUSPENSION: D Lucas Esteves

Yeah, MLS was slow in updating the disciplinary stats last week, so we didn't know Wilson was one yellow card away from suspension heading into the Galaxy match.

I think we're going to wear burgundy tomorrow night with Seattle's home green, that's what we did last year, but its two somewhat dark colors so the league may change things up.

On the lineup though, with Wilson out I really expect one of two things.  Moor with Priso in front of him, or more likely IMO, Vallecilla with Warner in front of him.  I don't think we're ready for Vallecilla and Priso yet, that's a lot of youth.  I'm leaning towards Vallecilla and Warner because of the turf, I think Moor is unlikely to start.  The turf is also why I think its unlikely we see Price.  Other than that its pretty much the lineup that's been working for the last few games.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Rubio.  I'm not ready to predict a road win yet.  Seattle has struggled, not scoring in the last 3 matches, but they're still Seattle.  I think our recent improved play and Seattle's confusion means we can steal a point but that's as far as I'll go right now.

A Much Needed Three Points

The Rapids continued their streak against the Galaxy on Saturday night, its now 8 games against the LA side without a loss.  Colorado came out and controlled the game early, going up 1-0 before the Galaxy got a shot on frame, and almost going up 2-0 before VAR waved it off.  Yarbrough made one big save and that's all the Rapids would need to win the game and get back in the playoff hunt.

Random Musings:

• Great start out of the gate with Zardes getting a good look at goal in the first 10 minutes, only for an LA defender to clear it off the line.
• Danny Wilson had a great match and it started early with covering for a teammate's bad giveaway and taking away a golden opportunity for LA.
• A quick hit on the counter for the Rapids opening goal.  Zardes doesn't show up on the scoresheet but he dragged a couple of defenders into the box, leaving the lane open for Lewis to setup Rubio for the long shot.
• Colorado had a quick second with a Zardes header off a corner kick but VAR waved it off.  Lots of confusion about this call.  Rosenberry was clearly offside when Zardes headed the ball, and the call was he interfered with the keeper's view of the ball.  On replay it seems a bit ticky-tack but I can't call it a bad call.
• The second goal was Lewis capitalizing on a bad LA giveaway and a nice backheel to set up a Zardes goal that counted this time, and put the game away.
• Ralph Priso got his first start since the trade and had a good argument for man of the match in the first half.  Obviously a small sample size but you can see why Fraser wanted him in the MLA deal.  He came off at half because he wasn't fully fit yet, especially at altitude.
• Always good to see Drew Moor get time.  I have to double check but I think we've never given up a goal after he's come on as a sub since he returned to the team in 2020.
• The Bodmer Line is down to 1.43 pts/game, 1.71 if we want to feel confident about our chances.  Still a big hill to climb but achievable if we play like we did Saturday night.
• Next up, a trip to my hometown of Seattle.

Man of the Match: Gyasi Zardes.  There are plenty of candidates from this game.  Wilson, Lewis, Yarbrough, Rubio, and Priso all made cases for themselves.  I went with Zardes though because he essentially scored two goals and had an unofficial assist on the other one.  Its the type of game we were expecting when we acquired him.

Must Win Game Tomorrow Night

Fraser and the Rapids won't say it, but tomorrow night is essentially a must win for our season.  Anything short of 3 points against the Galaxy and we'll have to play the rest of the season at a higher pace than we played all of last season.  Our July-September last year was that good, we would need to repeat it.  Kickoff for this crucial 6-pointer tomorrow night is at 7pm.  Note, I-70 Eastbound is closed this weekend so you'll need to keep that in mind if you're headed to the stadium.  if you're watching on TV, well, only 14 more blackout games to go.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price

Rapids 2 played tonight and Vallecilla and Markanich started, so the backline is pretty set.  Beitashour started the last two games so I think he gets the rest and Rosenberry/Esteves go on the outside.  Priso gets his first start after Warner was less than impressive this week, and Lewis went 90 inboth games this week so he gets the break while Nicholson and Barrios start.  The play was probably to rest Zardes but you don't want to take him off after he found his scoring boots on Wednesday.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Barrios.  Mainly predicting a win because I don't want to see our season over in mid-July, but we haven't lost in the last 7 matches to the Galaxy.  At home, with no travel between games, I think we can edge this one before a tough road trip.

Another Comeback Draw

Last night's game looked much like Saturday night's game.  The Rapids went down in the first half, battled back in the second half, and split the points with a former manager.  To the team's credit, after the first 20-30 minutes they looked like the better team but once again poor marking in defense cost them.  We can't keep throwing away points, despite the result we fell back one more spot in the playoff race.

Random Musings:

• On the goal Orlando had a long throw-in.  6(!) Rapids tried to close down 2 Orlando attackers on the incoming ball.  Wilson actually got to the ball first and headed it, but it fell to an unmarked Torres who slotted it past Yarbrough.  Torres was Esteves' man, but Lucas was caught in no-man's land between Torres and Pato.  Pato would have been Abubakar's man but Lalas was one of those 6 who went for the throw-in, leaving Esteves in a bit of a no-win scenario.
• Max got his second start and still struggled, but at least last night you could see some of the things we saw back in the CCL.  He's not ready to be starting and its an indictment of our roster building right now that he's the best option, but there is potential there.
• The first 30 minutes the team was really struggling.  Lots of frustration and miscommunication.  Seems like Fraser got them settled at half because all the good chances in the second period were from the home side.
• Really Orlando didn't have any good looks all night, their goal had an xG around 0.1 and it was one of their best looks.
• For the third game in a row, and about 14 out of 18 this season, Colorado had a better xG than their opponent.  They're now the team with the worse Goals-xG in the league at almost 8.  We have to get better about finishing chances.
• Credit to Fraser for picking the right subs.  He inserted Barrios and Rubio, and the two of them set up Zardes for the goal.
• The "official" Bodmer Line is up to 1.53, but as I said on Monday I think that's soft.  If we aim for 48 instead of 44, we've got to play at 1.8 PPG the rest of the way.  For comparison we played all of last season at 1.794.  Essentially we need to find our 2021 form today and keep it through the beginning of October just to make the playoffs.
• To do that we have to start by beating the Galaxy on Saturday.  We haven't lost to them for a while, but anything less than 3 points and you can pretty much call this season done.

Man of the Match: Gyasi Zardes.  He still has work to do but this game was one of the few times he looked like he was earning his salary.  Got the goal and if it weren't for a great performance by the Orlando keeper he would have had one or two more.  He seemed less than excited about scoring though.

Some Mickey Mouse Club In Town

Colorado is back at home facing a former coach for the second game in a row and a third time since Memorial Day.  This time its Oscar Pareja and Orlando City in town.  OCSC is coming off a late-night (due to lightning delay) win over Miami on Saturday, only their second win in their last 7 games.  As we know the Rapids are on a 5 game skid.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7pm, and the TV blackout count is down to 15 more games (since the last game of the season is on Univision).

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price

No changes from Saturday in the player availability report, but with 3 games this week I expect some rotation in the starting eleven.

Hard to tell exactly what kind of rotation we'll see.  I think we'll ride the back line as much as possible this week, and we don't have another striker to start up front.  So I think you'll see the most rotation in midfield and on the wings.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Rubio and Lewis.  This looks like the most winnable game for a while and I think an extra-tired Orlando will give us that chance.  It will be tight and Lewis will get the winner off the bench.  We'll suffer for the effort in the heat on Saturday against the Galaxy, but right now we can only worry about the game in front of us.

Tailspin Continues

Any other team on any other night and we're probably feeling pretty good about coming back from a 2 goal deficit to get a point.  In Sandy, with the Rocky Mountain Cup on the line, and our season on the brink, its not good enough.  Not nearly good enough.  This was a chance to jump-start our season, but once again the defense was ball watching at critical times and the offense couldn't take advantage of the opportunities they created.  Now we're sitting one point off the bottom with a steep hill to climb to have any playoff shot and on a 5 game winless streak.

Random Musings:

• Goal 1, FSL had some luck finding space but Abubakar and Rosenberry had it covered.  Some sort of miscommunication happened though and they both left the ball-holder to cover other men, giving him plenty of space to set up the long shot.
• Goal 2, good free kick from FSL off the post, Rosenberry is ball-watching the whole time and allows his man the easy tap in.  51 minutes in, dominating the game (our xG was almost a goal higher even after the second goal), and we were down 2-0.  Story of the season in some ways.
• This is the third game in a row we've given up a  critical goal in first half stoppage time.  A sign of a defense that is not mentally strong from start to finish.
• Zardes had back-to-back shots in the first half with xGs greater than any shot FSL had on Saturday night, and he missed them both.  As a DP, he can't be missing those.
• Max had the best opportunity, right before half.  An xG of almost 0.5.  He also missed.  And that might have been the highlight of the night for him.  A start that shows that we can't expect much from him this year,  he's just not ready.
• Nice job on the penalty by Rubio.  At 8 goals now he's got an outside shot at the team record (16 by Casey in 2009),  He could tie Casey in 2010 for second with 15.
• Huge credit to Lalas for making up for his mistake on the first FSL goal by scoring the equalizer late.  His xG was about the same as Zardes' two best chances.
• Time to bring back the Bodmer Line.  For new readers, the Bodmer Line (names after former Class VI Grand Poobah Mark Bodmer, who suggested it) is the level we must play at the rest of the season to reach the average points for the 7th place team in a 34 game season (that being the final playoff spot).  The league has been at 34 games since 2011, with the exception of the COVID shortened 2020 season, and the average points the 7th placed teams have had in those years is 44.
• So the Bodmer Line for the Rapids is exactly 1.5 points per game the rest of the way.  Though honestly, that target number of 44 feels soft.  There were a number of years early in the 2010's that had low point totals for the 7th placed team we haven't seen in a while.  I think 48 will probably be a more realistic number this year.
• We have to start earning those points with a 2-fer of Orlando and the Galaxy at home this week.

Man of the Match: Michael Barrios.  Earned the PK and sparked the comeback when he came in.

2022 Rocky Mountain Cup Part 2

 An undermanned Rapids squad goes into Sandy tomorrow night needing a win to get the season back on track and, more importantly, win the Rocky Mountain Cup.  A loss means FSL wins it, and a draw leaves the teams tied which means FSL retains it as the current holders.  Colorado really needs the 3 points as well with the playoffs slipping further and further out of reach.  Kickoff is at 8pm and we have 16 games left in our TV nightmare.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz, M Jack Price

As mentioned at the end of my prior post, Trusty has been released from his loan to go to Arsenal.

While this isn't the lineup I'd choose its what I expect Fraser to play.  Its really hard to see many other players getting the start.  Maybe Barrios, maybe Vallecilla, but that's it.

Prediction: 1-1 draw goal by Rubio.  FSL has been struggling a bit, which is the only reason I think we can get a point out of this game.  As much as I hate to predict we'll lost the RMC with no Price and no ready replacements for Trusty or Kaye I don't see how we get 3 points tomorrow.  The Cup, and the season, will likely be lost by the end of the night.

Colorado Trades Mark-Anthony Kaye To Toronto

Rumors were swirling earlier this week that Toronto was interested in reuniting Kaye and Bradley.  Many (including myself) dismissed it as a single report from the Toronto side that felt like the "big" team trying to bully the "little" team into making a move.  Well, the move is being made.  No official announcement yet but the deal is reportedly done:

    Toronto gets Kaye

    Colorado gets $1M in GAM, midfielder Ralph Priso, an international slot in 2023, and TFC's 1st round pick next year

Overall that's a sizeable haul.  Last summer we traded $1M of GAM and an international slot for 2022 to get Kaye, so a year later we've added a 1st round pick and a young player to his value.  Long term this looks like a solid move.

But for 2022?  This feels a lot like throwing in the towel on the season.  As Joseph Samelson pointed out, the 2021 team has lost Vines (who left midway through), Bassett, Badji, Acosta, Shinyashiki, Mezquida, Trusty*, and now Kaye.  Essentially in 8 months we've gone from the top of the West to a rebuilding project.  The thing is, if you look at any of those 8 moves on their own, all of them look like solid, smart moves.  The problem is, again as Joseph put it, the Front Office failed to bring in adequate replacements.  We traded Acosta because we ere going to pivot from him and build our midfield around Kaye, but that wasn't working.  We moved on from Bassett, but brought in Max, who's shown nothing in MLS play.  We sold Vines and Trusty and brought in Keita who got injured (admittedly, not something you can plan for) and then Vallecilla, who looks like he has potential but is he ready to start?  Looking back now, the offseason was a disaster and we're suffering for it now.

Ralph Priso-Mbongue is a 19 year old defensive minded Canadian midfielder.  He came up through the TFC academy (which means he doesn't need an international slot) and was on TFC III and II while Fraser was still an assistant coach for the first team.  He's played for the Canadian U-15 and U-17 teams and has some real potential.  He's made 12 starts and 25 appearances for the first team over the last 2+ seasons, with 2 goals and 3 assists in just over 1000 minutes.  He got his first full national team camp callup in January but has not yet appeared for the full Nats.

Again though, this is a solid deal than in a year or two we're going to be happy with.  But I don't see a way to the playoffs in 2022 now, unless the Rapids have a midseason window unlike one they've had in a long time.

* - Trusty is not available for tomorrow's match and has played his last game in burgundy

Rapids Choke

Really, that's all there is to say.  Up 2-0 in the first 20 minutes or so in front of the biggest home crowd of the year and they lose 3-2.  Multiple mental lapses on defense and not finishing chances on offense, the same problems that have plagued Colorado all season.

Random Musings:

• Before the match the Rapids announced this would be Trusty's last home match, despite the initial announcement of his loan being through July 17th.  Afterwards the team said Trusty's availability for Saturday's game in Sandy is to be determined.  It sounds like somebody (Rapids or Arsenal) wants him out of Colorado early.
• The way Trusty played last night, and has played most of the season, I'm thinking its probably Colorado.  He has been mentally checked out most of the year and he was directly responsible for the second goal given up by not making an easy play on the cross in.
• The first goal shouldn't have happened either.  It was an easy clearance that Wilson ducked on for unknown reasons.  Was he called off?  If so it was most likely Trusty who was in position to play it if Wilson didn't, but Wilson's duck appeared to catch him by surprise and the ball went past him.  Meanwhile Esteves had lost his mark but that shouldn't have mattered as two different CB's should have made the clearance before that.
• Austin scored the third goal twice, both the same way.  The first time it was waved off by VAR for handling,  In both cases there were far too man dangerous attackers unmarked at the top of the box while Rapids defenders were marking open space.
• On the attack the Rapids were good early, a classic Colorado set-piece goal with a header from Abubakar got them their first, and a nice breakaway chip from Lewis got the second.
• And then it stopped.  The Rapids didn't have a shot on target after the second goal.  That despite them playing up a man for the last 15 minutes+.
• Its safe to say now that the Zardes move has been a bust.  Partially because Barrios and Lewis haven't given him decent service, but partially due to his own poor play.  At least we didn't spend much to get him.
• Barrios had a wide open goal to level the game, and somehow hit it wide of the post.  An unbelievable miss.
• Lots of people complaining about Fraser at this point, but I'm not sure there's much more he can do.  At some point the players need to play to their level of talent (and we need to add more talent to the roster).
• Next week is the Rocky Mountain Cup finale, where we must win to bring the trophy back to this side of the Rockies.  It kind of feels like a turning point in the season.  Win, on the road, against our rival, and we kickstart things and get back on track.  Lose (or even draw), and we are probably done for 2022.

Man of the Match: Jonathan Lewis.  Great goal early and was dangerous throughout.  If we're going to get back into this season we'll need more games like this out of him.

Colorado Tries To Bounce Back In Annual Independence Day Game

The Rapids hit the midway point of the season tomorrow night as they host their 26th annual 4th of July game.  Afterwards they'll have played 17 of the 34 games this season.  Depending on the results Colorado could be anywhere from 2 to 8 points out of a playoff spot by the end of the night   Clearly its time to start putting up points.  Its going to be tough though as tomorrow night's opposition, Austin FC, is second overall in the league and the Rapids are missing some key players.  Kickoff tomorrow is at 7pm and if, like me, you're not going to make it you'll have to figure out a TV option.  As always I'll be celebrating my wedding anniversary.

Injury Report: 

OUT: M Ollie Larraz

QUESTIONABLE: GK Clint Irwin, GK William Yarbrough, M Jack Price

Disciplinary Report:

SUSPENDED AFTER NEXT YELLOW: D Auston Trusty

Looks like Abe Rodriguez is going to follow in Tim Howard's footsteps in getting his first Rapids start in net on the 4th of July.

We could see Warner again but after his struggles in Portland I expect Acosta to be central with Kaye while Rubio and Lewis are further forward supporting Zardes.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Rubio.  I don't think home cooking gets the Rapids over the hump missing Price and Yarbrough.  The 4th of July buzz will keep us in the game and we'll be able to get a point, but not the full three we need.  Rubio will find the goal after Austin scores to take the lead first.