Monday, July 11, 2022

Tailspin Continues


Any other team on any other night and we're probably feeling pretty good about coming back from a 2 goal deficit to get a point.  In Sandy, with the Rocky Mountain Cup on the line, and our season on the brink, its not good enough.  Not nearly good enough.  This was a chance to jump-start our season, but once again the defense was ball watching at critical times and the offense couldn't take advantage of the opportunities they created.  Now we're sitting one point off the bottom with a steep hill to climb to have any playoff shot and on a 5 game winless streak.

Random Musings:
  • Goal 1, FSL had some luck finding space but Abubakar and Rosenberry had it covered.  Some sort of miscommunication happened though and they both left the ball-holder to cover other men, giving him plenty of space to set up the long shot.
  • Goal 2, good free kick from FSL off the post, Rosenberry is ball-watching the whole time and allows his man the easy tap in.  51 minutes in, dominating the game (our xG was almost a goal higher even after the second goal), and we were down 2-0.  Story of the season in some ways.
  • This is the third game in a row we've given up a  critical goal in first half stoppage time.  A sign of a defense that is not mentally strong from start to finish.
  • Zardes had back-to-back shots in the first half with xGs greater than any shot FSL had on Saturday night, and he missed them both.  As a DP, he can't be missing those.
  • Max had the best opportunity, right before half.  An xG of almost 0.5.  He also missed.  And that might have been the highlight of the night for him.  A start that shows that we can't expect much from him this year,  he's just not ready.
  • Nice job on the penalty by Rubio.  At 8 goals now he's got an outside shot at the team record (16 by Casey in 2009),  He could tie Casey in 2010 for second with 15.
  • Huge credit to Lalas for making up for his mistake on the first FSL goal by scoring the equalizer late.  His xG was about the same as Zardes' two best chances.
  • Time to bring back the Bodmer Line.  For new readers, the Bodmer Line (names after former Class VI Grand Poobah Mark Bodmer, who suggested it) is the level we must play at the rest of the season to reach the average points for the 7th place team in a 34 game season (that being the final playoff spot).  The league has been at 34 games since 2011, with the exception of the COVID shortened 2020 season, and the average points the 7th placed teams have had in those years is 44.
  • So the Bodmer Line for the Rapids is exactly 1.5 points per game the rest of the way.  Though honestly, that target number of 44 feels soft.  There were a number of years early in the 2010's that had low point totals for the 7th placed team we haven't seen in a while.  I think 48 will probably be a more realistic number this year.
  • We have to start earning those points with a 2-fer of Orlando and the Galaxy at home this week.
Man of the Match: Michael Barrios.  Earned the PK and sparked the comeback when he came in.

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