Playoff Hopes On The Line In The Dark Place

Since last week's post more results have gone against us in the playoff race.  Obviously our draw was not ideal, but San Jose and FSL also won and Dallas got a draw.  Houston did lose but they were always a long-shot anyway.  This leaves the Rapids still in 8th place but the margin has significantly decreased.  San Jose is only 2 points back, Dallas is also 2 points back, with a game in hand, and FSL is 3 points back with a game extra to play.  Meanwhile Austin and Portland are both 4 points ahead, and Austin has an extra game left too.

I'm still thinking 42 will be enough for somebody to get into the playoffs, but it may come down to tiebreakers.  The Rapids are at 40 so one win should be enough.  Potentially 2 draws would be too but that's a lot less sure after this past weekend.

This weekend the Rapids face FaKe SaLt LaKe at KKK Slogan Field in Utah.  A loss would not only keep us from that playoff total, it would allow FSL to pass us in the standings and still have that game in hand.  A win would put us at a point that FSL could only pass us if they won their final two games and we lost to LAFC, and even then just on a tiebreaker.  A draw leaves us in limbo, not enough points to feel confident in the playoffs and within 3 points of both FSL and Dallas with their games in hand.

When it comes to the Rocky Mountain Cup things are a little more in our favor.  With our one goal win earlier this season the pressure is on FSL to get a result to claim the Cup.  A Rapids win or draw means the Cup stays in Colorado.  Even a one goal loss means we keep the Cup as the teams would be tied on points and goals.  Only a multi-goal loss would allow that group from the wrong side of the Divide to claim the trophy.

In the end we, once again, really need a result this weekend.  I really don't think relying on getting a result at home against LAFC is smart.  The idea of Son and Bouanga running at Holding and Maxso is not something that fills me with hope.  So we need 3 points in Sandy this weekend, in a matchup where we historically struggle late in the season.  In the last 10 late-season Rocky Mountain Cup matchups (Sept/Oct games), dating back to 2010, the Rapids have won 2 of them and drawn 2 others.  That means 6 wins for FSL, many of them crushing our last hopes of the season.  Notable though one of the two Rapids wins was the 5-0 beatdown in Sandy in September of 2020.  So it is possible.