We're Still Alive?

 Somehow FSL and Dallas didn't put us out of our misery last weekend.  Not a total surprise that the Rocky Mountain Cup non-holders struggled in Seattle but I did not see the MLS Cup 2010-losers losing to the Galaxy.

That leaves 4 teams alive for the last two slots on Decision Day.  First, the schedule (all games simultaneous at 7pm on Saturday night):

• Austin (6) @ San Jose
• LAFC (3) @ Colorado
• FSL @ St. Louis (13)
• Dallas @ Vancouver (1)

San Jose and FSL have the advantage of playing teams with nothing on the line (other than Toronto passing St. Louis in the draft order).  Neither of their opponents can change their standing in the West.  Vancouver needs 1 point at home against Dallas to lock up the West (or San Diego not winning.  LAFC can jump San Diego for 2nd if they beat us and San Diego doesn't win, they can also drop to 4th if Minnesota wins and they don't beat us.  The other thing to play for is the final CONCACAF Champions Cup spot, and it will go to whomever finishes highest between San Diego, LAFC, and Minnesota.

The tl;dr version of all that, FSL should be expected to win given they're playing a weak team with nothing on the line and San Jose has a good shot to cause chaos, playing a team with nothing on the line.  Meanwhile Dallas and Colorado are facing teams who will be going all out.

So, what do we need to make the playoffs?

First, we are out with a loss no matter what happens elsewhere.

Second, with a draw we need two of the following three results:

• FSL loses in St. Louis
• Dallas loses in Vancouver
• San Jose does not beat Austin

(We win the tiebreaker with Dallas but lose it to FSL and San Jose)

Third, with a win we need one of the following two results:

• FSL does not win in St. Louis
• Dallas does not win in Vancouver

Getting all three other results with a draw or both other results with a win would mean we not only qualify for the playoffs but would host the wild-card game.

My prediction is that the other results won't matter, as I don't see us getting anything out of LAFC.  If we do somehow pull out a draw however I expect FSL to win and get in.  I think San Jose gets a win as well, and Dallas shuts the door with a draw in Vancouver.  I just can't see us getting the win we would need with that set of other results but if they pull it off I'll admit I was wrong.

Assuming the season ends this weekend we'll move on to the post-mortem in the near future.  If it doesn't then we'll talk playoffs.  Regardless whenever we get to the offseason I'm going to have some things to say about KSE.  As a teaser, recently this quote Matt Mahoney, senior VP of business development for KSE, was published:

One of the unique attributes of Denver is that we have all our major sports teams downtown