Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Time Is Running Out On 2015

The Rapids are digging themselves a hole they may not be able to get out of this season.  I know, I know, the season feels like it just started and I'm already saying we're on the ropes but the numbers are not our friends.

Currently the Rapids have 10 points in 10 games.

6 teams from each conference make the playoffs.  Since the league went to 34 games in 2011 the 6th placed team in both conference have averaged 46 points a season.

That means in the remaining 24 games the Rapids need to gather 36 points to be in the playoff conversation.

Doing the (easy) math that means they need to average 1.5 pts/game the rest of the way, or about 50% more than they've averaged so far under Pablo.  Overall he's coached at .95 pts/game, 1 pt/game so far this season.

Overall the Rapids have only averaged 1.5 pts/game over the course of a season 4 times.

1999 - 1.59
2010 - 1.53
2002 - 1.5
2013 - 1.5

Here's where those seasons were at the 30% point (just about where we're at in 2015):

1999 - 1.7
2010 - 1.78
2002 - 1.625
2013 - 1.2

(As you can tell, the annual "summer swoon" of the first 15 years was a real thing :D)

Obviously the only year that's close to our current situation is 2013.  That was also the second year for a coach (Pareja) like 2015 is.  How did we do it in 2013?  Most of it came from a 9 game undefeated streak between June 26th and August 31st where we picked up 19 points and the Rocky Mountain Cup.

To have any shot at the playoffs the 2015 Rapids are going to have to find their own streak where they play at 2.0 pts/game for 10 games.  Each game they lose at this point raises that average by .06 (so a loss in KC Saturday puts the number at 1.56 pts/game the rest of the season).  A draw raises it by .02.  So essentially if we don't win in our next two games we're going to have to play as well as we have ever played over the course of a season the rest of the way just to have a realistic shot at the playoffs.

For all intents and purposes, the Rapids playoff run has to start now!

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