Wednesday, August 27, 2008

MLS Cup, U.S. Open Cup, Supporter's Shield - Where do we stand? Part 3

This was originally scheduled for last Wednesday,m but with the news of Clavijo's departure I pushed it off to this week. We're two-thirds of the way hrough the season, so let's reexamine where we stand. My last analysis is here.

USOC: Out after loss to KC
MLS Cup: To be decided at the end of the season, currently we are out of a tie for the last playoff spot by 2 points.
Supporters Shield: Goes to the best regular season record

Right now that's Columbus, with 37 points from 21 games and the goal differential tiebreaker. We're at 24 points from 21 games. Lets do some figuring to see some best case/worst case scenarios.

Best case:

  • Nobody played better than .500 ball the rest of the way, or 1.5 pts/game. That would put Columbus on top.
  • That gives them 13-14 points the rest of the way.
  • Added to their current 33, that's 50-51points.

  • Lets say the Rapids play really well and only get 1 draw the rest of the season.
  • That means they would have a maximum of 49 points (8-0-1) and would miss the Supporter's Shield.

What's all this mean? The Supporter's Shield is lost to us. We would have to win every remaining game and hope that both Columbus and New England play no better than .500 over the last 9 games. That's not going to happen. Our only hoe for hardware this season is MLS Cup.


henryo said...

Nice Analysis...

Do you also count MLS Reserve Division & Rocky Mountain Cup?

Jason Maxwell said...

Nope, only the big three meaningful trophies

henryo said...

Ops, COL fell to rock bottom for the 1st time this season, how much chance is still left after rnd 22?