2019 Scheduling News

Some of this broke a few days ago but the Rapids have been so busy making moves that I haven't had a chance to cover it.  Today's Rapids-centric news is a good time to go through it.

The Rapids will open the season at home on March 2nd against Portland it was announced today.  Kickoff will be at 4pm.  Hard to believe that's only 72 days away!  10 weeks from Saturday!

The Rapids also announced their preseason schedule today.  Cam opens January 21st (a month from tomorrow!) and after a couple of days of getting everybody worked up the team immediately heads to Florida for a week of training in Bradenton capped off with a scrimmage against new MLS team Cincinnati FC.  Then after a couple of days in Denver its out to Chula Vista, CA for 3 weeks of training including matches against the PDL Ventura County Fusion, University of San Diego, a morning scrimmage against the USL Las Vegas Nights followed by an evening game against them at their home field in Vegas (I assume the morning game will largely be reserves while the evening gated admission game will largely be starters), a game against the Galaxy at Dignity Health Sports Park (the new name of the Stub Hub Center) and then another scrimmage the next morning against LA (again, likely reserves that didn't play the night before).  Only the evening games against Vegas and LA are open to the public.  Then the Rapids return home a couple of days before the opener.

The one odd thing about this schedule is that the team only spends about 7 days in Denver during the preseason, the rest of the time they'll be at sea level in Florida and California.  Kind of a surprise given the first game is at home at mile high altitude.

Last week the league announced new scheduling for the season and playoffs.  The season starts March 2nd but finishes in early October, about 3 weeks earlier than recent seasons.  This allows the league to get the whole playoffs in between the October and November FIFA windows, with MLS Cup on November 10th.  The league also changed the playoff format, adding an additional 7th team per conference and switching to a straight singe game knockout bracket with the higher seed hosting.  So in the first round the conference champions get a bye and the 2nd seed hosts the 7th seed, 3rd hosts 6th, and 4th hosts 5th.  The key here is that the brackets won't be re-seeded after each round so the 7th seed gets the winner of the 3-6 game if they win, they don't switch to playing the 1 seed and so on.

Overall I find this a mostly positive change, though it feels too early to add a 7th team to the playoffs, I would have preferred they waited until the league got closer to 28 teams.  Also there's a pretty solidly confirmed rumor that starting in 2020 the season will start in February, the compressed schedule this year is due to CBA requirements for offseason length that prevented them from starting any earlier than the first weekend of March because of when the 2018 season ended.  With 2019 ending earlier they'll be able to move the start of 2020 earlier.  That's going to suck for us Rapids fans if we have to sit in the cold for a home game in February again.

One last piece of news today unrelated to scheduling.  The January National Team camp rosters were unveiled this morning and both Acosta and Rosenberry will be heading out to Chula Vista early to take part.  That's great for them and the Rapids.  I'm guessing Acosta will get playing time in the January friendlies, Rosenberry may or may not.

Barring any big news tomorrow this will be my last update before Christmas.  I hope all my readers (if there are any left after my hiatus) have a happy holidays!

Rapids Make Yet Another Move

I'm not used to a Rapids FO that's this active before Christmas (or even before the Desert Diamond Cup!).  Colorado made another move today, sending bags of MLS funny money to Philly for RB Keegan Rosenberry.  Officially we sent $150K in GAM and $50K in TAM this year and $100K in GAM next year.  There's another 100K in GAM that could go to Philly next year based on Rosenberry's performance.  Like I said, lots of funny money.

Keegan is 25 years old and played for Philly's youth team, but not long enough to be considered a homegrown player.  After going to Georgetown the Union selected him 3rd in the 2016 draft and immediately started every game his rookie year.  He was in and out of favor with coach Jim Curtin in 2017 but reclaimed his starting spot this year, starting all but 3 games.  He's also been on the edge of the National Team picture, getting one invite to the January camp already but not yet appearing for the team.  BTW, this year's January camp roster is revealed tomorrow and some are saying Rosenberry could be on it.

While $300-$400K in funny money is a high price to pay getting a 25-year old borderline National Team player at a position of need is probably worth it.  Nobody settled in and claimed that spot last season and I fully expect Rosenberry to own the spot going forward.  The only down side is that this is Rosenberry's last year of his contract so if for some reason he doesn't want to re-sign he could walk away to another league at the end of 2019 and we'd end put paying Philly in 2020 for a player we no longer have.  I have my doubts that would happen, but it would be great to get him signed to a new deal.

Going into the offseason I said we needed to add 3 clear MLS starter level players, at least 2 in attack, if we were going to be serious about turning this mess around.

• Kamara - Clear starter, attacker
• Rosenberry - Clear starter
• Rubio - Almost a clear starter, attacker
• Mezquida - Not quite a clear starter but serious potential, attacker

I think combining Rubio and Mezquida counts as one, so I have to say the FO came though, and before Christmas!

Guess I'll need to renew my season tickets after the holidays...

Catching Up On Rapids Moves

Ok, lots of moves to catch up on.  I was waiting to post about the goalkeeper moves on Friday for an official announcement about a contract deal but I think it may have gotten buried by today's news so I'll catch up now.  We sent a 2nd round pick in next month;s draft to Toronto for Clint Irwin.  On the surface swapping $175K MacMath for Irwin with a $220K option in his last contract year doesn't look great.  There are heavy rumors though that Clint is signing a new deal with the Rapids that will bring him in under MacMath's number for at least two seasons.  That makes this move a no-brainer.  Arguably Irwin is a better keeper than, certainly he's as good as, MacMath and he's familiar with the club.  He gives us a quality backup for Howard this year and will compete for the starting job in 2020.

We then used the 2nd pick in the Re-Entry Draft to select Andre Rawls from NYCFC.  I don't know a ton about Rawls but he's 26, was drafted by NYCFC in 2015 and spent that first year in the USL while being their back up the last 3 seasons, but never played a league game.  I'm sure he'll spend 2019 in Colorado Springs unless we need him on the bench as a backup of Howard or Irwin are unavailable.

That sets our keeper roster for 2019 at Howard, Irwin, and Rawls, which is a solid 1-2-3.

Today we made a big move, sending Edgar Castillo to New England for Rowe and then sending Rowe, $200K of GAM, and $100K of TAM to KC for Diego Rubio.  The $100K TAM matches what we got in the MacMath trade so you can kind of look at this like MacMath+Castillo+$200K of GAM = Mezquida+Rubio which is a nice piece of work.  Rubio is a 25 year old striker from Chile that has played in Chile, Portugal, and Spain before signing with KC in 2016.  He's been a spot starter/sub for KC, scoring 8 goals in 9 starts/20 appearances last year (averaged 39 minutes an appearance).  He also got his green card in KC so he does not count as an international.

I can see Rubio being a starter in 2019 or competing with another signing to start along-side Kamara.  Either way he's better than anything we had starting up top last year and paired with Kei we could see a combined 20 goals from them, which is better than anything we've had since C+C Goal Factory.

The Rapids still need to shore up the defense, I expect at least one outside back signing, and a couple more solid signings in attack would be helpful, but this is more moves before Christmas than we've ever seen from this organization so these are positive signs.  The question is, can Hudson make it all work on the field?

Rapids Add Kamara In Trade

As expected Colorado didn't lose anyone in today's expansion draft.  Not as expected, they ended up gaining a player.  With their second pick Cincinnati selected Kei Kamara from Vancouver and immediately traded him to the Rapids for an international spot in 2019.

Kamara is a 34 year old striker who is originally from Sierra Leone but came to the U.S. as a kid as a refugee and eventually became a citizen.  He has had a well-traveled career starting in 2006 with Columbus and eventually playing for 5 other MLS teams, a return to Columbus and time in Norwich City and Middlesbrough in-between.  That's 10 teams in 13 seasons.  In the last 3 seasons he's had 38 goals in 89 appearances over 3 teams (Columbus, New England, and Vancouver).  At that rate he's averaging 15-16 goals over the course of a season, a significant upgrade from anyone we've had since C=C Goal Factory in 2010 (and actually those numbers would be slightly better than either of them).

All sounds good, right?  Well, there are some downsides.  First, as mentioned, he's 34 years old.  So this is not a long-term foundation move.  Second, he's developed a rep for being a problem in the locker room.  The fact that he's changed teams so often has certainly played into it, and things ended poorly in Columbus.  The third is that he's not cheap.  Reportedly he signed a 2-year deal with TAM at $750K, with incentives that could drive that to a million (he was making a million in Vancouver last year).

The money can be dealt with, especially with a team that seems more interested in stop gaps until Howard and Gashi get off the roster next season.  If the locker room issues are accurate then this is a place where I expect Tim Howard to earn his money.  He's team captain and has a well-earned rep for not taking any crap, he'll need to keep Kamara in line and focused if necessary.

Overall I think this is a decent move for the team right now.  My biggest concern is that once again its not a long-term signing.  Since then end of 2016 you could argue the only successful long-term free agent signing we've made has been Jack Price.  I know the team is focused on 2020 and while I don't fully agree with it I can give them a chance, but I don't see how a move like this fits in.  This does meet my requirement of signing MLS-ready players, just not quite how I envisioned it.  Overll though a team as bad as the Rapids doesn't have many options, beggars can't be choosers, so overall its probably a good move.

One other wrinkle, the traded international slot means the team now has 7 slots for 2019 and 7 international players.   We should probably hope that Ena Patel and her team is working on some green cards this offseason if we want to get any more international help.

Expansion Protected List Released Today

The protected list for tomorrow's expansion draft for FC Cincinnati has been released, the Rapids protected:

• Kellyn Acosta
• Nana Boateng
• Marlon Hairston
• Tim Howard
• Niki Jackson
• Nicolas Mezquida/Zac MacMath (both were protected but its unclear which one was protected by the Rapids and who was protected by the Whitecaps)
• Sam Nicholson
• Jack Price
• Dillon Serna*
• Tommy Smith
• Deklan Wynne

and then automatically protected by their Homegrown Status are:

• Cole Bassett
• Kortne Ford
• Sam Vines

*Dillon Serna is a senior roster player now, so despite being a homegrown he's no longer automatically protected in an expansion draft and we must use a spot to protect him.

This leaves the following unprotected: Barnes, Blomberg, Boli, Calvert, Castillo, Colvey, Da Fonte, Dykstra, Gashi, Hamilton, Martinez, Sjoberg, Wilson.

I can't say there are any surprises here.  A bit of an eyebrow raise as Gashi being unprotected but that's probably a (safe) bet that Cincinnati won't want to take his DP contract on.  The only real question is protecting Boateng or Wynne over Sjoberg.

I expect Cinci is taking a long look at Sjoberg tonight but in the end will probably pass on all the available Rapids players.  I can't see them being interested in anyone other than Sjoberg from our unprotected list.  There are likely 5 better players for them elsewhere.

Our First Move Of The Offseason

There was a half-day trade window in advance of this week's expansion draft today (forget explaining why, its MLS) and the Rapids made a move.  They, surprisingly, sent Zac MacMath to Vancouver for attacking midfielder Nicolas Mezquida and $100K in TAM.

This is a surprise because by all accounts MacMath was the heir apparent to Tim Howard.  I even heard a rumor late in the season that they were talking about a platoon system in goal next year where Howard would play home games and MacMath would play road games.  Its odd and makes me question prior decision making (largely under Hinchey/Bravo/Pablo) that we would hold on to MacMath when he was hot after his half season as a starter in 2016 only to trade him when his value might be the lowest here in 2018.

As for the trade itself its largely meh, with a catch.  Two bad teams traded backup players.  Mezquida is a 26 year old Uruguayan #10 who has started occasionally in his time in Vancouver.  He's also able to play the wing or as a #9.   He's essentially going to take Enzo Martinez' role.  The catch is that he's an international and I don't love using up an international spot on a backup midfielder.  The $100K of TAM could be used to get us another international spot but I think the trade would have been better, even a notable positive, if instead of getting the TAM we had gotten back the international slot we traded to Vancouver through 2031 (not a typo) for Sanna Nyassi.

Year-End Roster Moves

After a month of quiet nothing from the Front Office we got the list of year-end roster moves today:

Out of Contract and Released: Yannick Boli, Andrew Dykstra

Options Declined and Released: Giles Barnes, Caleb Calvert, Kip Colvey, Mike da Fonte, Sam Hamilton, Enzo Martinez, Jack McBean, Ricardo Perez

Options Picked Up: Kellyn Acosta, Dillon Serna, Deklan Wynne

Everyone else is under guaranteed contract for 2019.

No real surprises on here and no real complaints.  Calvert and Perez as homegrown players being released are not shocking but a little unexpected.

Just because a player has their option declined doesn't mean they won't be back, it just means that the Rapids didn't want to pick them up ad the agreed on salary.  I wouldn't be surprised if Martinez, for example, gets a new offer and re-signs.

I know this is kind of minor, but I think the Andrew Dykstra signing really encapsulates the failure of the 2018 roster building process.  We traded a 2nd round pick to KC for him.  We signed him for over $100K.  Then we sent him to Charlotte all season and other than a couple of times when MacMath or Howard wasn't available and he had to be the backup on the bench he never put on a Rapids jersey.  Now we've released him.

Why couldn't we have signed a 22 year old rookie at minimum salary to do the same thing?  Yeah, the 2nd round pick next year and the $50K difference in salary really doesn't mean much, but at the same time a team likes the Rapids needs to maximize its roster everywhere it can to compete with the big spenders.  If we aren't doing the small things right are we surprised we aren't doing the big things right, like signing Boli, Mason, and Aigner?

Taking Stock And Moving On

Yes, after 3 months I'm back.  I needed the break from the blog with how bad this season was, I don't think I would have made it if I were doing game previews/reviews and news analysis on a regular basis.  That would have been far too much negativity to handle.

We're moving forward now though, hopefully I still have some readers at this point.  Unlike most years I'm not going to do a player of the year, a season recap, or a keep/trade/cut roster analysis.  The focus going forward will be looking at the steps the Rapids take to improve, not looking back at this disaster of a season.

Before we do that though, this one statistical post of how bad this season was.  I'm going to list all the ways this team sucked, then wrap it up, put it away, and never look at it again.

One note, pretty much all of these statistics ignore the first four years of the league when the shootout was used to break ties.  The further away we get from that time period the less those stats are going to be relevant anyway.

2018 Statistics:

• Second worst point total ever (23 in 2001)

• Second worst points per game ever - 0.912 (.88 in 2001)*

* - I've spent the latter half of the season saying this is likely our worst season ever.  It turns out the list I've been working from had the wrong pts/game total listed for 2001, and has had it wrong since it was first posted in 2014.  This turned out to only be the second worst season.

• Second worst total number of wins - 8 (5 wins in 2001 with only 26 games)

• Longest losing streaks in Rapids history - 8 and 7 games (not including the USOC loss)

• Worst loss in team history - 6-0 to FSL (this ties the infamous Joe Nasco game in LA but I'd argue that losing at home to your rival is wore than losing to the league's premier team on the road)

• Most goals allowed - 63 (62 in 2014)

• Worst goal differential - -27 (-20 in 2017)

• Lowest ever goal total for Golden Boot winner - 4 by Tommy Smith (Jovan Kirovski, 6, 2007)

I'll stop there.  Needless to say it was a horrible season.  Time to look to 2019.  I expect things to be quiet for a couple of weeks but if there's news I'll post.  Otherwise when we start getting information about contract options and such we'll get into roster planning for next season.

Catching Up On News

There's been a few pieces of news this week:

• First, Azira has been loaned to the Colorado Springs Switchbacks.  Considering Wilson has been crap as a dmid I don't know why we're doing this but so be it.
• Secondly, we sent our extra international spot back to Minnesota for $50K in General Allocation Money (GAM).  We got this spot from Minnesota in the Nicholson trade.  They send us Nicholson and the international spot, we sent them Miller and $50K in GAM.  So really we gave up Miller for Nicholson and an international spot for 3 months at this point.  Still a decent trade.
• next Thursday at 6:30pm Padraig Smith will be doing another online town hall.  Questions can be submitted in the Rapids subreddit.  More details here.

Acosta Trade Is Better Than First Reports

So the Acosta trade was made official today, as expected, and it was actually better than first thought.  Let's list it all out first:

Colorado gets:

• M Kellyn Acosta, who's under contract through 2018 with team held options for 2019 and 2020
• Dallas' first round 2019 pick
• Dallas' second round 2019 pick, conditionally
• 50% of any sale of Badji if sold before the end of the summer 2020 transfer window

Dallas gets:

• F Dominique Badji
• International slot through the end of 2019
• Colorado's first round 2019 pick
• 50% of any sale of Acosta if sold before end of the summer 2020 transfer window
• 33% of any sale of Acosta if sold after the summer 2020 transfer window

The condition on Dallas' second round 2019 pick is based on how far down we drop going from our first round pick's to Dallas'.  If its a small drop they keep the pick, if its a large drop we get it ( no info on where the break point is was released).

To me the real key differences in what was reported last night was the fact that Acosta's deal goes through 2020, along with getting picks back and part of any sale of Badji in the near future.  Odds our those latter opportunities don't pay out much but it allows us to hedge our bets a bit.

In then end this is a medium-risk/high-reward trade for the Rapids.  Best case scenario is that Acosta finds his old form, elevates the team at least through 2019, and then we either sell him for a large transfer fee (as he's been clear he wants to go to Europe) or he decides he likes it here and re-signs.  Both outcomes are wins for the Rapids.  Worst case, he doesn't find his old form, he's an average MLS midfielder, and we get him on a lesser deal or we trade him away again.  Not great but the real loss in the move would be Badji, who has largely plateaued here anyway.  And if he suddenly gets better and is bought we get half of that.

Acosta flew in early this morning, was at training today, and may play against Boca Juniors tomorrow.  Hopefully we see him start on the 4th against LA (starting on Saturday in DC might be asking too much).

Rapids To Announce Significant Trade At Noon Tomorrow

The Rapids have announced a press conference tomorrow at noon, and its presumably to announce the trade that broke tonight (and that I've been hearing about for about a week an a half).  Assuming reported details are correct here's the swap:

Colorado gets: M Kellyn Acosta
Dallas gets: F Dominique Badji, an international spot through 2019, our first round pick in 2019, and part of any transfer fee if Acosta is sold

Acosta is a 22 year old homegrown player who has 116 appearances for Dallas and 17 caps for the U. S. National Team.  He's fallen out of favor in Dallas due to injury and a disagreement with Oscar Pareja over his best position.  He wanted to make the jump to Europe but Dallas never received a good enough offer for him.

This deal is a lot to pay but Acosta is a great addition to this team. This is an all-in move though. If the Rapids juju gets him and he fizzles out its going to be overpaying and another massive mistake. If he keeps playing like he has at the MLS and international level though, he's somebody you build the midfield around. Overall I like the move, but its not a total slam dunk.

This is clearly a 2019 and future move. I don't believe we have a striker lined up to replace Badji right now but I don't think we care. 2018 is a write-off at this point and we'll have to muddle through with Barnes, Boli, McBean, and Gashi.  We need to sign the right striker for 2019 and beyond, not worry about the rest of 2018 and make an emergency move.

One concern is that Transfermarkt has Acosta's contract expiring at the end of the season (and he signed a new contract at the end of 2015, so a 3-year deal would be about right). So this move better include signing a new contract.  Paying this much for a rent-a-player that jets for Europe at the end of the season would be a disaster.

I'll update tomorrow if the deal is any different than what's been reported tonight.

Badji Away, Rapids Playing A Friendly In Memphis

Two pieces of news this week.

• Badji is back in Senegal finalizing his green card

Lousy timing, what with the Rocky Mountain Cup this week, but the government offices involve set the timing and the Rapids have no control.  He's not expected to make it back in time for Saturday's game.  On the plus side, we have 2 international slots open now.

• Rapids will play the USL's Tulsa Roughnecks FC in a friendly Sept. 1st in Memphos

This is a kickoff event for Memphis' USL team that will start play next season.  Since they were announced in January Tim Howard, a Memphis resident in the offseason, has been a special adviser to the team.  They'll be unveiling the team logo and such as part of the event.  The Rapids were invited, obviously, because of Howard and will presumably be getting paid for the appearance.  I'm not sure why Tulsa was invited, unless they just happen to be one of the USL teams that have a bye that weekend (the Rapids have a bye because its an international weekend).

Rapids Sign Barnes

2017: M Stefan Aigner - 5 starts, 9 appearances, 2 goals, 1 assist
2016: M Sebastien Le Toux - 8 starts, 11 appearances, 2 goals, 1 assist
2015: D Sean St. Ledger - 12 starts, 12 appearances, 0 goals, 2 assists
2014: D Zat Knight - 3 starts, 4 appearances
2013: F Gabriel Torres - 5 starts, 7 appearances, 3 goals, 1 assist
2012: F Edu - 3 starts, 9 appearances

For the last 6 summers the Rapids have gone out and acquired a, lets say notable, international player.  To that track record today Colorado added F Giles Barnes after he had been released by Mexican side Leon.  Barnes is a Jamaican international but does hold a green card so he doesn't take up the open international slot left by Mason's departure.  His contract is for 6 months with a team held option for 2019.

Another commonality in the names above is their lack of contribution both in the season and they acquired and beyond.  Gaby Torres is actually the only one to get any significant playing time after the season he signed and even that was less than successful.  I sadly expect the same from Barnes.  He's going to be 30 years old probably before he gets his first start in Colorado (Aug 5th), he's only played 3 times in the last year for Leon, and his production has been dropping off from the highs of his career.  By the time he gets here and gets fit and acclimated to the altitude we're probably looking at mid-August at best.  I'll put the over/under at 9 starts and 3 goals (there are currently 16 games left).

I don't see him making a big enough impact to have his option picked up for 2019 so I think this is going to be a depth signing for this lost 2018 season and then we'll move on.

Hello....Is This Thing On?

I said I'd be back when there's news, and after a month to the day of saying that, we have news again.  Today the Rapids terminated Joe Mason's loan and he'll return to Wolves in England this month.

Mason was not a success here, but I think that's less about him and more about the situation he was in.  Inconsistent playing time and an atrocious midfield gave him no chance to find his legs.  I felt like, while he wasn't a top tier player, he could have contributed more than he did.  There were some questions about his fitness though, which is something that he is responsible for.  I have also heard that Hudson didn't take a liking to him, which is why he didn't see as much time as we had hoped.

That last bit is concerning to me because Mason was signed right before the season after Hudson had gotten settled here.  So that suggests one of two things to me.  First, that Smith and Hudson aren't working as closely together as they claim and Smith is making signings without Hudson's input.  Second, that they are working together but their scouting isn't revealing what it needs to reveal about players before they get here.  Either way, its not a good sign for the team.

As a replacement for Mason the Rapids have been linked with Leon (and former Houston/Orlando/Vancouver) striker Giles Barnes.  He was waived by Leon today and reportedly there's another MLS team also interested.  I say, let him go.  Barnes has averaged about 24 appearances and 6 goals a season over his career and he's now on the backside of that career.  He's not a long-term solution and by the time he gets here and gets fit (he only made 3 appearances for Leon in the last year) he won't be a shot-term solution either.

There are some other rumors swirling around the team, so I'll post when/if anything solidifies.  This season is still lost and today Marco Cummings had an interview with Padraig Smith where he reiterated the 3-4 transfer windows before the team is where they want, so essentially 2019 is already lost too.  So I'll continue to be a part-time blogger on the team until they decide to be more than a part-time team.

Rapids To Host Boca Juniors July 24th

The Rapids have announced that they'll be playing a friendly against Argentina's Boa Juniors on July 24th at 7pm at the Dick.  Ticket information will be released on Friday.  Really, they should be giving the season ticket holders their tickets free as a makeup for this debacle of a season.

Depending on pricing I may or may not go.  While it would be cool to see a storied team like Boca Juniors I'm not sure I want to pay a lot to either see the Rapids gets steamrolled or play against the C squad from Argentina on a Tuesday night.

Game Tomorrow - Don't Care

I was going to write a basic game preview tonight but then Rapids Rabbi published this.  No criticism of Mark, its a good article with interesting information.  My issue is this quote from Hudson:

We know the changes we need to make. It’s going to take a couple of transfer windows. It’s going to take more time on the training pitch.

That's a B.S. excuse in a league where Chicago went from 31 to 55 points in one offseason.  Where Atlanta came in as an expansion team and put up 55 points in an inaugural season.  Where LAFC is on pace for 58 points this year and they have yet to play a home game in their first season.  This isn't a case where we've got leadership stuck with a mess not of their own making.  Every player on this roster (except maybe Serna) signed their contract while Smith was either part of the player management team or GM.  Hudson is Smith's picked coach to take all these new players we got this offseason and mold them into a playoff team this year, by the standards they themselves set.

Essentially the Rapids are once again playing the fans for suckers, promising that with just enough time they'll build something we can be proud to support.  In reality, these statements are code for "Smith and Hudson don't know what the hell they are doing".  Until they do, or they're replaced with somebody who does, this team will be a laughing stock and not worth the time I've been spending writing about them.  Expect nothing but news analysis here until something changes.

9 Times

Yep, we've lost 9 times in a row.  We could talk about this game but we've talked about this game before many times.  No offense, defensive mistakes, loss.  We are now tied for the 3rd longest losing streak in post-Shootout league history and the 2nd longest losing streak in all competitions in league history (10 is the record for both, set by FSL in 2005).  Our 0.7 expected goals on Saturday is the third lowest since they started tracking the stat.  We are not just bad, we are historically horrible.

Really, there's not much more to say.  This is another wasted season by the Rapids with the same excuses and the same promises.  Abbie Mood over at Burgundy Wave said it best in her article today:

We just want someone—anyone—to say: “We messed up. We over-promised and under-delivered and here are the steps for how we plan to fix it.”

Which is exactly what I've been asking for for literally years at this point.

Houston, We Have Many Problems

Tomorrow we try to avoid our team record setting 8th league loss in a row (and record extending 9th in all competitions) in Houston.  Game time is 7pm and the game is on Altitude.  C38 will be at the Celtic for this one.

Badji is out due to yellow card accumulation.  Ford is still out injured, Hairston and Sjoberg are questionable.  Houston has 6 players out injured, including Jared Watts, one questionable, and one out on international duty.

I could throw a lineup out there but I think we all know its going to be the same 3-5-2 with players that shouldn't be starting.  Until that changes its not worth putting much into these previews.

Prediction: 2-0 loss.  Houston has one of the best offenses in the league and I don't see our broken defense stopping them.  Our best attacker is suspended so I can't see us scoring either.

Aigner Released

You know yesterday when I said I wasn't sure how much I'd write but I'd cover news?  Well, we have news.  The Rapids announced today that the club and Stefan Aigner had agreed to a mutual termination of his contract, effective immediately.

This brings to an end the issues with Aigner which, as more and more stories leak out, appear to have been caused as much by him as Hudson.  Players were calling Aigner out for his lack of effort, he reportedly had multiple run-ins with Hudson, and generally never appeared to do anything this season but pick up a paycheck.  I'm sure as time goes by we'll hear more from both sides but whatever happened, it was bad and the faster the Rapids could move on the better.

MLS rules don't allow salary relief for a contract terminated mid-season.  Whatever buyout was agreed on still hits our cap for this year.  We do remove Aigner's cap hit in 2019 and 2020 with this move though.  Aigner was due around $2 million through 2020 and I can't see him giving that up for free just to get out of the contract.  Unless he already has a new deal lined up somewhere I assume he got something for agreeing to leave early, but obviously not the full $2 million.  Whatever that is will still hit our cap this year.

So as far as this season goes, barring any future info, all we really get back is an open roster spot.  Since Aigner got his green card in the offseason this doesn't even free up an international spot.  It does remove a problem in the locker room though and lets everyone move on, so in the end it was the right move.

Hey Hudson

Really, I'm done at this point.  There's no analysis to be done with this team.  We just got shutout by a USL expansion team and couldn't put a shot on goal.  We're horrible and this is easily the low point in team history.

We're on the longest losing streak ever and its not like there's light at the end of the tunnel.  When we lost 7 near the end of 2014 we knew we had a rookie coach that was left a mess by Pareja leaving and the FO wasting the offseason before giving him the job a week before the season started.  We also had hope that with the end of the season near there was a chance we could fix the problems in the offseason (we didn't, but we had hope).

What do we have now?  12 games into a rebuild directed by Smith with coach hand picking players.  Players that are clearly not MLS quality.  The coach has a 3 year deal and we still have over a year and a half on Pablo's deal to pay off.  KSE isn't firing anyone until that's taken care of.  We're out of the CCL without a win, we're out of the USOC without a win, and we're out of playoff contention with only 2 wins in the first 12 games.  There is no light at the end of the tunnel, just a long slog through the rest of this season and 2019 before we can get some staff (and player) contracts off the books and maybe return to being a minimally competent MLS team in 2020.

So I don't know how often I'll write here in the near future.  There's just so many times you can throw your hands up and say WTF?!?! before it becomes a chose instead of fun.  Certainly game previews and reviews are going to be abbreviated if not skipped completely.  Any actual news will be covered, but I don't expect a lot of that.

For those of you that are willing to slog through this with me, I'll see you at the games and in the forums.  for those of you who are walking away, I completely understand.

Will The U.S. Open Cup Be A Breath Of Fresh Air?

The Rapids are in Nashville tomorrow night to see some old friends in the Open Cup.  Kickoff is at 6:3-pm MDT.  Fleming will be calling the game for Altitude radio, and the U.S. Soccer site says there will be a live stream.  The team is saying all the right things about taking this competition seriously this year, but I don't have to detail how many times we've heard that over and over again.  We haven't made it past the Round of 16 since 2006.

In my opinion the odds are against us.  First combine a team in a tailspin with an organization that doesn't take this competition seriously.  Then you put them on the road against a team getting their first shot ever at a MLS team in competition as they prepare to make the jump to MLS.  Then for the cherry on top, Nashville is coached by former Rapids coach Gary Smith and has Matt Pickens and Kosuke Kimura on the roster (not to mention 20178 draftee Alan Winn who skipped MLS to play in the USL).  Those three are going to want to show the Rapids what they're missing.

I never make roster or game predictions for the Open Cup, as I'm never really sure what mentality we're taking into the game.  If we put out a true best lineup (not what Hudson has been running out there during the 7 game losing streak) we should be able to beat Nashville.  Anything less than that though and I expect to lose.

Record Setting Night

Credit to Michael P for the picture

With another loss on Friday night the Rapids tied their worst ever losing streak (7 games) and their worst ever home losing streak (4 games).  The latter was set in 2001, where the league played a 10 minute golden-goal overtime and 3 of the 4 losses back then were by 1 goal.  So there's a very good chance this is the first time the Rapids have been losing at the end of 90 minutes in 4 straight home games.  (The 7 game losing streak was in 2014).

We could spend time rehashing the game but there's no point.  Its generally the same issues we've seen all through the losing streak.  While not as bad as the NYCFC or Portland games it still wasn't great and our opposition was significantly weaker than those other two teams, which might be the reason.  Our season is over.  The Bodmer Line is now at 1.72, which is higher than our pts/game average in the great 2016 season.  This team is not making the playoffs.

Instead I want to make one point, and one suggestion.  I've been thinking this weekend about what's gone wrong and how to fix it in the short-term.  By "what's gone wrong" I don't mean this season, I mean over the last few years it feels like for the most part the Rapids haven't even been competitive.  Colorado (2016 aside) has never been great, but for a long time we were solidly average.  Lately though we haven't even been that.  So I decided to take a look at the point totals across the league over the last few seasons.  I decided to start with 2012.  After the 2011 season Gary Smith's contract wasn't renewed, Jeff Plush was fired, Tim Hinchey was put in charge, and that was the start of the Rapids attempting to move up to "MLS 2.0" (or whatever you want to call it).  This was the era that brought in DP's, affiliations with Charlotte, homegrown players, etc. and it feels like an obvious line to draw between the "old" Rapids and "new" Rapids.

Total points since 2012:
RBNY: 355
Kansas City: 345
.
.
.
San Jose: 287
Toronto & Chicago: 275
DC: 271
Montreal: 266
Philly: 263
Colorado: 256
(this only includes teams that played in every season from 2012 to now)

That's right, the Rapids have been the worst MLS team since 2012.  99 points behind the leaders RBNY.  31 points behind the next closest Western Conference team.

Clearly all the attempts at #OneClub, "attacking soccer, and The Rapids Way have been failures.  Say what you want about the quality of "MLS 1.0" but at least we were competitive.

So, how do we fix this?  Long-term the options are obvious.  Sign a competent coach and let him build a decent roster.  We also know that's not going to happen for a couple of years at least.  So working with what we have, here's my suggestion:

1. Do whatever it takes to get Aigner's salary off the books during the summer transfer windows.  Let him go on a free, trade him for peanuts, whatever.  Freeing up the salary cap space is more important than anything we could get for him.
2. Drop the obviously failing 3-5-2 and go back to a 4-4-2.  Either GK is fine (I'd go with MacMath just to mix things up), Defense: Hairston, Ford, Sjoberg, Castillo:  Midfield: Price, Blomberg, Nicholson, ? Forward: Badji, Boli
3. Use the freed up cap room and the DP spot to sign a #10 to fill the hole in midfield this summer.  This will hurt KSE but they need to do something to get out of this hole.

The downsides to this plan are the amount of money on the bench (Howard, Smith, Wilson, Gashi, Mason) and the ability of Castillo and Hairston to play in a flat back 4.  I think they're better as wingbacks.

The upside is that I think this roster can at least be competitive in games.  We won't make the playoffs regardless but we won't be embarrassed.

If the #10 signing is a bridge too far the Rapids could also move to a 4-3-3.  Play Badji, Boli, and Mason up front, put Price and Azira in midfield with somebody like Blomberg (or maybe Gashi) in front of them, and use the same back line.  This lineup won't be as strong but still better than what we're seeing.

Man of the Match: The baby bird that entertained 108 for the first 15 minutes of the second half.  He had great positioning in our defensive half, moved well, and was able to avoid any fouls by being run over by Vancouver attackers.  Generally a better performance than we've seen from anyone this season.

Once More Unto The Breach Dear Friends

For some reason the idea of watch another Rapids game this season reminds me of Henry V encouraging his troops into one more attack.  Its a rough job, but they wouldn't call us fans if it was easy. ;)  Tomorrow we get the Whitecaps coming to town, a team that's also looking to turn their season around.  Join C38 for a post-work happy hour starting at 4, with kickoff at 7.  Altitude TV for those who can't make it.

Player Availability:

Injuries:

OUT: D Kortne Ford (L MCL sprain); D Marlon Hairston (right knee surgery)

Discipline:

SUSPENDED AFTER NEXT YELLOW CARD: F Dominque Badji

No changes there, but the real question is will there be changes in the starting XI?  Vancouver is missing Watson to national team duty and has one player out and one questionable.  My guess at the starting XI:

I really hope I'm wrong, but I expect Hudson to make small changes and be stubborn about his system and his guys, namely Boateng and Wynne.  If he does actually make changes, starts Serna and Gashi in the midfield, we might have a chance to end this downwards spiral.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Badji,  If Hudson makes real changes we can win this game, but like I said, I don't expect him to.  Vancouver is a bad team though, so even our bad team can get a point.  A point isn't enough though, and this result (should it come to pass) essentially ends our season on June 1st.

A New Low

To be frank, outside of Edgar Castillo, this team is crap.  The team didn't belong on the field with the Timbers on Saturday and regardless of how close the score looked, the Timbers didn't worry about the result much into the second half.

They had a great first goal (helped by a poor play by Danny Wilson) but their other two goals were just ripping apart a Rapids backline that it not MLS quality.  Both goals were started by horrible passes from Boateng.  Both could have been stopped if Wynne, or anyone else, had marked the back post.  As we've seen all year, that didn't happen.

After the game Hudson said, in multiple ways, that he feels that we were competitive and we're just a few tweaks away from figuring it out.  We're not.  Even with a healthy Hairston and Ford taking Boateng and Wynne's spots that still leaves a questionable Wilson, a midfield that has no consistence or creativity, and a set of forwards that coming into June aren't fit, other than Badji.

I'll be honest, this feels like a new low as a Rapids fan.  This is the second worst losing streak in team history.  The worst is a game longer and a much larger goal differential from 2014 (it ended with that 6-1 debacle in LA).  But that was the end of a season with a rookie coach with some hope we'd figure things out in the offseason (we didn't, but I didn't know that them).  This time we're 11 games into the new era of the Colorado Rapids and it feels like there's not light at the end of the tunnel.  I can't see KSE allowing another manger change (note, I'm not calling for Hudson's job, yet) since they're still paying Pablo through the end of next year and they'd still have to pay Hudson, so they won't pay a third manager.  I don't see them firing Smith (again, not calling for his job, but getting close) since they just gave him the permanent position.  Without any sign from the FO that a change in direction is coming, I have ton assume things aren't going to get much better for a long time.

Really, any hope we have rides on Friday night's game.  Currently the Bodmer Line* sits at 1.65 pts/game.  Losing on Friday would push it to 1.72 over the final 22 games.  In our best season, 2016, we played 34 games at 1.71 pts/game.  Failing to beat Vancouver at home on Friday means it would take a miracle run to make the playoffs.  I have no belief that a team that can't beat Vancouver at home has a miracle run in them.  Essentially the season would be over by the first day of June.  This is not the improved "Rapids Way" Smith talked about.

* - The Bodmer Line is the rate the team needs to gain points over the rest of the season in order to reach the average number of points the 6th placed (and final playoff) teams have accrued in the 7 years the league has played 34 games.  That's 46.5 points.  Names after C38 Grand Poobah Mark Bodmer, who helped me refine the idea.

Man of the Match: Edgar Castillo.  The only one that looked like an actual MLS player out there for 90 minutes

Rapids Try To Snap Losing Streak By Snapping Trees

Any chance to salvage this season starts tomorrow with the first of 4 out of 5 at home.  Portland comes to town on a roll so it won't be easy.  Game time tomorrow is the normal 7pm so the tailgate starts at 4.  Altitude TV for those who can't make it.

Player Availability: 
Injuries:
OUT: D Kortne Ford (L MCL sprain); D Marlon Hairston (right knee surgery)

Discipline:
SUSPENDED AFTER NEXT YELLOW CARD: F Dominque Badji

Despite not appearing int he injury report Johan Blomberg has already been announced as the guest for "Tailgate Live"  in front of Eighteen36 tomorrow during the pregame, so we know he won't be available.  Portland has 4 players out and 1 questionable.

Sadly I don't expect many changes despite a lineup that's not working.  Maybe we see Gashi start, maybe we see Serna instead of Blomberg (but I doubt it) but that's about all I expect.  No Aigner in the 18, no Boli starting.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Badji.  Portland is scoring about half a goal more per game than the Rapids while giving up about the same number.  I expect it to look like a close game, the Rapids won't get blown out but I think the Timbers will largely control the game.  Colorado makes it interesting but in the end its another loss.

Rapids Visiting Old Friends For USOC

The USOC Round 4 draw was held today, which is the stage that MLS teams enter.  The other Colorado teams were eliminated in earlier rounds, including Colorado Springs earlier this week.  This left Colorado to be placed geographically in a wide E-W group stretching from Salt Lake to Nashville and also including KC.  The good news, we were drawn against USL side Nashville SC while FSL and Sporing KS play each other.  The bad news, we're going to Nashville for the game.  Date and time have not been set but we know it will be June 5th or 6th.

Nashville is in their first year as a USL team but its in preparation for an already awarded jump to MLS in 2020.  They are coached by one Gary Smith, the best coach in Rapids history.  To help him build out this new squad he brought some old hands in to help, Matt Pickens and Kosuke Kimura.  I would have loved to have been drawn at home to welcome all three back to the Dick.

I don't hold out much hope for this draw.  Historically the Rapids have never put much effort into the USOC.  Add to that a road match against a team facing their first ever MLS competition and wanting to make a splash and three key players who want to show their old team what they can do and the odds are not with us.  I expect Hudson to treat this like the CCL, a glorified friendly, and I expect a loss and a short end to our USOC run.

Well, that sucked

At least I hope Saturday was rock bottom because if we're still falling I want to just impact and get it over with.  The team was outclassed in every way.  Out coached, out played, out hustled, the Rapids didn't belong on the same field as NYCFC, or any other MLS team this weekend.

We've lost 5 in a row while being outscored 12-2.  The last time we lost 5 in a row was this time last year, and that was by a combined 7 goals.  To find a 5 game run this bad you have to go back to the dregs of 2014 and that 14 game winless run which included a 7 game losing streak that was capped off by the embarrassing 6-0 beatdown in LA.

This team is a mess and I don't see a long-term plan for getting better.  We have multiple players starting that belong in USL, a coach and a high=priced attacker who can't get along, and injuries and fitness issues keeping our best players off the field.  This season is likely already over, 4 of the next 5 at home might save up, but only if we win them all.

Man of the Match:  Anyone who watched all 90 minutes of that match (I didn't).

Colorado Tries To Break Streak In A Tough Place

Rapids looking to swamp the Big Apple

Colorado takes an East Coast trip out to Yankee Stadium to face NYCFC trying to snap a 4 game skid.  Not the easiest place for a struggling team to visit as the New Yorkers are a top-4 team this year so far and their stadium presents some unique challenges to a team not used to playing there.  Kickoff tomorrow is an odd 11am start here  in Colorado.  The game is on Altitude and C38 will be meeting at the Celtic to watch the game before the Preakness (and after the royal wedding, if that's your thing).

Player Availability:

Injuries:

OUT: D Kortne Ford (L MCL sprain); D Marlon Hairston (right knee surgery)

Discipline:
SUSPENDED: M Jack Price (yellow card accumulation)
SUSPENDED AFTER NEXT YELLOW CARD: F Dominque Badji

NYCFC has one player questionable, otherwise they're at full strength.  The Rapids missing Price is going to hurt.  There's no good replacement for him on this team right now.  Since I've been out of the country I haven't been tracking who is likely to replace him.  I also don't know Badji's status but as it seems any injury of this teams knocks a player out of the starting lineup for a week or two I'm assuming he won't start.  My guess on what we see:

Gashi starting is more a hope from me, to give us some chance.  More likely it will be Aizra, or maybe Boateng in the middle with Serna at right back.  Regardless, this is not a great lineup to be going onto NYCFC with.

Prediction: 3-1 loss, goal by Mason.  This will be ugly and the Rapids will be outclassed across the pitch.  We'll get one but it won't matter as they will be the second best team tomorrow.  Honestly, I won't watch this one live.  Middle of the day right after getting back from a long trip and just before starting a new job, I have things I need to get done.  I'll try to avoid all spoilers and watch it a few hours later.

Back On The Rapids Beat

Sorry I've been quiet for the last week and a half.  I was in Hong Kong (seen above from Victoria Peak on Saturday) on vacation before I start my new job on Monday.  We'll get back to normal tonight with a preview of tomorrow's NYCFC game and the next week we'll talk about where the team is at after the first quarter of the season.

Meet The New Boss, Same As The Old Boss

Starting players clearly worse than other players on the bench (or not in the 180.  Playing boring defensive soccer.  Multiple game losing streaks when nothing changes.  Is this the 2018 or the 2017 Rapids?  Saturday night in KC looked exactly like the Pablo-ball we all got sick of by mid-2015.  Kc should have won by multiple goals, so holding them to one is a positive to take out but right now this team looks a lot like the Rapids teams of the last few years with a bit more (largely unused) talent.

• Kip Colvey is not a MLS player.  I know Serna has issues too but he should still be starting over Colvey.
• Boli has been here 7 weeks and can't start over McBean?  Clearly somebody is failing.  Either Hudson is ignoring his talent or Smith signed a lemon.
• Wynne shouldn't be starting over Sjoberg.  He's a decent bench player but there are better combinations of the back line that don't involve him.
• Hey, Aigner, Hudson?  Get over it.  Its ridiculous that we're starting Martinez and just-arrived-in-the-last-72-hours Nicholson while Aigner can't make the 18.
• The reason KC should have won bey 3-4 is that they had that many unmarked looks in the box.  On their one goal three different unmarked players touched the ball in the box before the goal.
• I'd talk about our offense, but there wasn't much.  Badji had one good look that he curved outside the post, and he did a lot of the work to get that look.  Yeah, you want him to hit that shot but if our strategy to get points depends on Badji hitting his one or two looks he gets every game we're not going to see a lot  of points.  No team would.
• After all that, Mcben actually had better statistics than Mason and Boli combined.  McBean had a shot and a shot on goal, the other two combined for one shot.  That doesn't mean I want McBean starting though.
• Somehow Price has gone three games without a yellow card.
• Somebody did the research.  Looking back at our last 10 road wins the 10th was in 2014.  We lost to Chivas USA, a defunct team, on the road since then.
• Right now we're on pace to finish 1 point better than last season.
• Until Hudson can wake up and actually put together a real MLS starting XI this team is going nowhere and likely won't be very entertaining while they do it. 

Man of the Match: Tim Howard.  Made a couple of good saves and not at fault on the goal.  Though to be honest it was really choosing the best of the worst in this one.

Cinco de Mayo en Ciudad de Kansas!

Yeah, that's about the extent of my Spanish.  After spending 4/20 weekend in Salt Lake the Rapids are spending the anniversary of the Battle of Puebla in Kansas City.  Let's hope that Sporting KC is playing the part of the French this week!  Kickoff tomorrow is at 6:30 with the game on Altitude.  C38 will be at the Celtic for a doubleheader with the Kentucky Derby.  There will also be watch parties at Blue Spruce in Centennial and Backcountry in Boulder.

Player Availability:
Injuries:
OUT: D Kortne Ford (L MCL sprain); D Marlon Hairston (right knee surgery); M Nana Boateng (concussion)

Discipline:
SUSPENDED AFTER NEXT YELLOW CARD: M Jack Price

No real surprise on the injury front, I'm sure all three of those guys will not be available.  The question is who's not listed that won't make the 18 due to injury.  No sign that the issue around Aigner has changed so I assume he won't be available either.  KC is also down 3 players to injury so both teams start out at equal strength.

(I'm guessing/hoping we'll be in burgundy and not yellow)

We could see our new guy, Nicholson, in place of Serna and Gashi in place of Blomberg and I wouldn't be surprised.  I expected the DisCo to suspend Wynne this week but I guess he got away with that kick.  I still think Sjoberg is a better option but Hudson seems to stick with Wynne.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Mason.  KC has a better offense and defense than us and we're on the road.  These are not good combinations.  We can hang with them but given our lack of mental focus in almost every game this season I don't think we're likely to get points out of this one.  The only time we've been shut out this season though was the debacle in Sandy, so I expect we'll get at least one.  Badji hasn't scored on the road yet so I'm going with Mason.

Woke Up To A Deadline Trade!

The MLS trade deadline and transfer window closed at 11pm last night.  There was some talk about Aigner possibly being moved but nobody really expected any other moves.  Everyone was surprised waking up this morning to find out that Minnesota and Colorado worked out a deal late last night.  Defender Eric Miller and $50,000 in GAM was sent to Minnesota in exchange for winger Sam Nicholson and the international spot we need to add him to the roster (the spot goes back to Minnesota at the end of the year).  Reports are that Minnesota is picking up most of Nicholson's salary as well as taking on Miller's.

This looks like, at worst, a swap of spare parts by both teams.  Miller didn't appear to be in the plans under Hudson and he's from Minnesota so he gets to go home.  Nicholson has been playing for United and the fans there seem less than pleased about the trade but he wasn't in their plans.  If things turn out for the better the Rapids likely got the better of the deal.  I could see Nicholson in the 18 in KC with our issues at right wingback and he could rotate both at wingback and possibly in the midfield if necessary.

While we're talking about the roster we should catch up on some other loan moves that have happened in the last few weeks that I got behind on reporting due to my job search (a concern that is now solved, thankfully).  Niki Jackson and Sam Hamilton are now currently on loan down in the Springs with the Switchbacks.  Meanwhile goalkeeper Andrew Dykstra was recalled from Charlotte before last week's game with Howard suspended and Academy keeper Kainoa Likewise went to Charlotte in his place.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Dykstra return in the near future now that Howard's suspension is over.  The full list of loanees is below:

Charlotte:
GK Kainoa Likewise
D Sam Vines
M Ricardo Perez
F Caleb Calvert

Colorado Springs:
M Sam Hamilton
F Niki Jackson

Phoenix:
D Mike DaFonte

Rapids Lose Heads, and Points, Again

Once again the Rapids lost focus for 15 minutes of the game.  Once again this cost them points.  Once again we're talking about the mental fortitude of this team.  This week the "lose our focus" minutes were the 60th through the 75th where we picked up 4 (count them, 4!) yellow cards and gave up the winning PK.  Until Hudson can get this team to play focused for 90 minutes we're just a more entertaining version of the same old Rapids.

Other observations:

• That ref was brutal.  Reportedly he was a last minute swap for the ref originally assigned the game and you can tell he hadn't done his "leg work" to prepare for the last minute assignment.  The first half he let them play, the second half he started cracking down after things got out of control.
• Credit to Orlando, they figured out the ref's change and took full advantage while the Rapids didn't.  I had no issue with any individual call but the ref really should have looked for a way to balance out the scales a bit before things got out of hand.
• Ok, one issue I had was the foul call on Boateng on the play he got knocked out on.  In a regularly controlled game that's probably a good no call.  In this game with the tenor of things it was really unfair to call it on a player who just hit the ground lights out.
• Not to pile on, but Boateng did not have a great game.  Combined with Aigner apparently being in Hudson's doghouse it appears both or major 2017 signings are now busts.
• Good to see Gashi start.  Bad to see Gashi go off injured, again.
• Serna, I love you kid but ouch, bad game.  A choice to clear a header to the middle of the box led to Martinez's failed bicycle kick and the first Orlando goal.  Then he game up the PK for the second.
• On that first goal MacMath's lack of effort is the exact same thing some fans have been criticizing Howard for over the last 9 months or so.
• Badji was the well places shot again!  Clearly the most improved from 2017 to 2018 so far.
• Mason and Boli were both in this game, they combined for as many shots and shots on goal as Tommy Smith.  Not good.
• 7 points dropped this season with goals allowed after the 75th minute.  That will come back to bite us.

Man of the Match: Edgar Castillo.  He is quietly putting together one of those seasons where he's rarely the best player in a given match but is clearly the best player on the team.  The quality and effort were there all 90 minutes on Sunday, which is more than you can say for most of the guys wearing burgundy.

Rapids Face Mickey Mouse Team On Sunday

After the disaster ins Sandy last week we're back in Commerce City on Sunday facing Orlando and former Rapids draft pick Dillon Powers.  We're actually on national television this week (ESPN) so kickoff is at 2pm.  A nice 77 degree day is forecast so those of us on the East side will get some nice sun while watching this one.  The tailgate will start at 11am, with some brunch items to celebrate.

Player Availability:
Injuries:
OUT: D Kortne Ford (L MCL sprain); D Marlon Hairston (right knee surgery)
QUESTIONABLE: D Danny Wilson (undisclosed)

Discipline:
SUSPENDED: GK Tim Howard
SUSPENDED AFTER NEXT YELLOW CARD: M Jack Price

As we found out last week the injury report (which is the same this week) that we see at this time is largely meaningless.  Given Wilson was on the bench last week, but didn't play, I assume he'll at least make the 18 this week.  He may start as reports from practice had Sjoberg back with the second team.  Those reports also said that Blomberg was nursing an injury so I wouldn't be surprised to see him start on the bench.  The Rapids made a move today, bringing back Dykstra from Charlotte for a week (presumably) to back up MacMath while Howard is suspended.  OCSC has three players out injured and one questionable.

Mason was reportedly back and practice so I think he goes in for McBean.  If Blomberg is on the bench as I expect Boateng will likely be his replacement, unless Aigner or Gashi is ready to start.  Hudson confirmed this week Aigner's absence is by coach;s choice so I doubt we'll see him.  With Boateng moved up to midfield, Serna likely gets the right wingback spot again.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Mason and Badji.  Orlando is allowing about 2 and scoring 2 a game while Colorado is allowing and scoring about half that.  So its the more open play of the visitor versus the tighter play of the burgundy boys.  I think the home edge give us the difference in this one, though a draw would not be shocking.

Rapids Lose Focus, Face Plant In SLC (again)

Sorry for the lateness of this recap.  It took some extra time to calm down after the debacle on Saturday (combined with the time spent on my job search).  Fans and the Front Office can talk all they want about the new "Rapids Way" and how the team looks different and is playing better.  Until we can play a full 90 minutes without mental lapses, especially in Utah, this is the same old Rapids.

Other observations:

• The first 20 minutes the Rapids controlled the game in a way I haven't seen at the start of a game in a long time.  It really looked like we were going to run FSL off the field.
• A key, (almost the key) rule for goalkeepers is that if you come out you must get the ball.  Howard wasn't even close.  He made a poor choice and paid the price, along with the rest of the team.
• In that first 20 minutes where we had almost total domination the Rapids had 6 shots, none on target.  FSL had 1, the one that led to the red card.  The rest of the game FSL outshot us 28-6 (and we still didn't get one on target).  Its great to dominate play, but if we can't turn it into scores its meaningless.
• Up until the penalty you could easily argue that the Rapids were playing above expectation down a man more than FSL was up a man.  FSL looks bad right now and, to quote Dennis Green, we let them off the hook!
• No idea what Tommie Smith was thinking on the PK.  A second stupid mental blunder.
• Once the PK was conceded the gates opened.  Disappointing that the team couldn't see the game through.  Losing by 1 or 3 won't matter much for league standing but its critical for the Rocky Mountain Cup.
• Quite frankly, we've already lost the RMC this season.  The only way for the Rapids to win it now is to go back to Utah in July and win and then win in Denver in August, or get a draw in Utah and win in Denver by 4 goals.  This team is clearly snakebit in Utah and will not win in July, and there's almost no chance we beat them by 4 goals at home (we've never beat FSL by 4).
• I appreciate Hudson's attacking attitude, but I question the idea of going for the win in this one by subbing in Gashi and Boli instead of somebody like Azira or Serna.  On the road, in a rivalry match, down a man, play for the scoreless draw.
• That said, this loss is completely on the players being unable to stay mentally focused, not on Hudson.
• The Rapids have now dropped 6 points by giving up goals in the 82nd minute or later this season.  Obviously this game was a bit different than the prior ones but its still evidence that this team is not mentally strong.  That has to be fixed starting with Orlando on Sunday.
• No Aigner, again.  We're up to 23 competitive matches with the club with 5 starts and 5 other appearances.  I think he's now solidly in the bust category.
• Also its clear the injury report is meaningless.  The "official" report in the game preview did not include Mason or Miller but included Wilson.  The lineup report list released an hour before game-time with the eighteen man roster included Mason and Miller but not Wilson under the injured category.
• Neither of them included Serna, who apparently had a knock as well.

Man of the Match: Zac MacMath.  Called off the bench due to Howard's blunder, immediately made a first save on the first kick of the ball, and came up big the rest of the way.  He shares some blame on the third goal for setting a bad wall but that was hardly the only mistake made by a Rapid on Saturday.

Bring On The Rocky Mountain Cup!

The first of three matches (with the first two in Sandy this year) in the 2018 Rocky Mountain Cup is upon us.  The trip out to 3.2 beer land is a highlight(?) of the season, and this might be the year we have a chance to get a win, something we haven't done since 2006.  Kickoff tomorrow is 7pm and for those of us who haven't made the trip 'Celo and Fleming have the call on Altitude.  C38 will be gathering in a few places on the Front Range but the major watch party will be at the Celtic.

Player Availability: 
Injuries:
OUT: D Kortne Ford (L MCL sprain); D Marlon Hairston (right knee surgery)
QUESTIONABLE: D Danny Wilson (undisclosed)
Discipline:
SUSPENDED AFTER NEXT YELLOW CARD: M Jack Price

Also Nikki Jackson has been loaned to the Switchbacks so he'll be staying in Colorado for their game tomorrow night.  FSL has 3 players out and 4 questionable.

Hudson hasn't shown much desire to tinker with what's worked so I think it might take a while before Boli, Aigner, and Gashi get into the starting XI.  I'm hopeful that the Colvey/Serna swap in the first half last week showed that Serna needs to start in Hairston's absence.  The rest is the same as we've seen for a few games.

Prediction: 2-1 win, goals by Badji and Gashi.  Honestly, as long as we don't drop the points in stoppage time, I won't be too upset with a draw as it guarantees that the Cup will be up for grabs at the home game in August.  That said, if we're going to get a win at Rio Tinto, this might be our best chance so far.  FSL is giving up 2 goals a game while barely scoring over 1, while the Rapids are averaging just under 2 a game while giving up 1.  Even with being the road team those stats are solidly in our favor.

And a reminder of what we're playing for:

B Team Rapids Handle B Team TFC

The Rapids did what they were supposed to do and beat a weakened TFC side on Saturday.  A number of people are discrediting the win because we were facing TFC's B team while they rested for the CCL.  Its true, they didn't have many regular starters (other than Drew Moor!) but many of these analysts are ignoring what the Rapids were missing, upwards of 7 starters weren't in the starting XI.  Ford, Wilson, Hairston. Gashi, Aigner, and one of Boli/Mason (and arguably both of them) were expected to be pat of our best eleven but didn't start the game.  Really it was our B+ team against the B- team of the "best team in MLS history" and the Rapids got the job done.

Other Observations:

• Gotta love starting with a goal before half the fans have sat down.  Great shot from Price and its the only goal this season not from a striker.
• Colvey started again, which seemed a poor choice early as TFC relentlessly attacked his side of the defense.  Kudos to Hudson for seeing the problem and making a first half tactical sub to bring in Serna.  That shut down TFC's hope of going up that side.
• The Rapids could have, and probably should have, had a multi-goal lead at half as only some great defense and a big save kept them off the board.
• Meanwhile TFC only had 2 good looks at goal until late in the game and things were pretty much wrapped up.
• Badji's PK call is one I'm happy to see called.  If he went down on first contact its a no-brainer PK but he tried to fight through it and didn't fully go down for a couple of steps, making it look more like a dive.  By rewarding him for trying to fight through it, even though he failed, it sets a good standard to avoid diving on easy contact instead of staying alive to take the shot.
• We had a Gashi sighting!  Great PK, good goal celebration, and wicked shot that looked like a certain 3rd goal late until Irwin came out of nowhere to save it.  Reminded everyone of what we've been missing.
• Also Boli made his debut!  Up 2-0 and just trying to kill the game off he didn't have to do much but good to see him get minutes.
• Sjoberg looked good again as a starter.  There's no reason he shouldn't be starting in Ford's place over Wynne.
• Castillo is having a very-quiet very-high quality start to this season.  Probably the most consistent player we have.
• McBean made a good run on the first goal.  Other than that he was largely quiet.  He's at best 4th in the pecking order now and I'd rather see Jackson and make McBean 5th.
• Price's yellow late was dumb.  There's no reason to go into that tackle up 2-0.  As good of a game as he had that was a blemish and I'm guessing, with the high intensity FSL game this weekend, he'll pick up a 5th and miss the next home game.
• This was probably the most complete game the Rapids have played this season.  They've been better in spurts but not for the full 90.
• Despite that we still lost the possession battle.  I think we just have to get used to that.  
• Great to see Irwin and Moor back at DSG.  Moor is one of the all-time greats and we'll see his name in the Gallery of Honor once he retires.
• The Rapids have 9 goals in their first 5 games.  The last time we did that was 2006!
• Next up, Rocky Mountain Cup Part 1.  All I ask is that we get a least a point (though I think FSL is beatable) to make sure the final game in Colorado is meaningful.

Man of the Match: Dominque Badji.  He didn't show up on the score sheet in this one but he had a hell of a game.  He's turned into a complete player over the last few months and this game really showed how dangerous he can be.  He was causing trouble for the TFC defense all day and was heavily involved the whole game.

Deja Vu At The Dick

Stop me if you've seen this before...

For the 3rd time in 7 games the Rapids face Toronto FC tomorrow out in Commerce City.  It will be warmer (but not much) than the 3 degree kickoff we had in February at least.  Toronto has been preoccupied with their success in the CCL (which started on that cold night by beating us 2-0) and faces Chivas in the first leg of the final next week.  Because of that TFC coach Greg Vanney said this about the Rapids game:

It’s very simple: We’re not prioritizing the Colorado game, there’s no sense even saying we are. Anyone who is healthy and hasn’t been playing a ton will find their way onto the field. I don’t know what my lineup will be. I don’t know what my shape will be.

 So, we have that going for us at least.  Because of Canadian TV kickoff is an odd 1pm tomorrow so the tailgate starts at 10am.  Come join us for brunch!  Those who can't make it can catch 'Celo and Fleming on Altitude as usual.

Player Availability:

Injuries:

OUT: D Kortne Ford (L MCL sprain); D Marlon Hairston (right knee surgery)
QUESTIONABLE: D Eric Miller (calf); D Danny Wilson (undisclosed); M Shkelzen Gashi (calf injury); M Enzo Martinez (undisclosed)

So, yeah, that's not great.  Essentially we're as limited as we were last week in Dallas.  I'd look at TFC's availability but from Vanney's comments it sounds like he's just going to run the second team out there anyway (they even made 3 signings from their USL team this week to fill out the roster for this match).

That selection of Serna is largely wishful thinking from me.  Colvey did not look good last week so I really hope we see Serna getting a chance.  Otherwise I don't think there's going to be any changes from what we saw last week unless Gashi, Martinez, or Wilson are a lot closer to being healthy than it appears.  I do think we see Boli as a sub this week though.

Prediction: 1-1 draw, goal by Mason.  Despite the talk of "the greatest team of all time" (which, to be fair, they appear to be backing up in their CCL play) TFC hasn't beaten us in a game we wanted to win since 2015.  They haven't beaten us in Colorado in almost 10 years (Aug of '08).  I don't see those streaks ending tomorrow with a makeshift Toronto lineup.  Toledo is the ref, which means something crazy is likely to happen, and we haven't played 90 minutes of soccer yet this season so I doubt either side gets a clean sheet.

Rapids Drop Points At The End...Again

For the third game (out of four) this season the Rapids dropped points by conceding a goal in the 89th minute or later.  Colorado has now dropped as many points this way as they've gained this season, 5.  Its an unacceptable pattern.  Seeing it happen 3 times during a season would be border line unacceptable, to see it in 75% of a team's games is atrocious.  Until Hudson and the players can solve this problem this team is going nowhere.  Last year 5 points was the difference between 8th place (missing the playoffs) and 4th place (hosting the wild-card game).  There's a very good chance that this year we'll see a similar difference and we really don't want to be on the wrong side of that.

Other observations:

• The second big takeaway from this match is that our big offensive signings can't get on the field.  Of the 21 competitive matches the team has played since Aigner was signed, he's started 5 and came off the bench in 5 others.  I understand the club is trying to let him feel physically comfortable with playing but at some point he either needs to start earning his salary or get out.
• For Gashi its not much better, 41 starts and 6 sub appearances in 74 possible matches.  So combined for those two that's 46 starts and 11 sub appearances out of 95 matches.  That's a horrible rate for a DP and a TAM attacker.
• Similarly I think it might be time to call the Boateng signing a bust.  He looked ineffectual in this one as a starter and he hasn't looked good in any match since his injury.
• Price is a card magnet, with 3 straight yellow cards now.  I like what he brings but we have to expect he's going to miss 2-3 matches this season due to discipline.
• Gotta love Badji and Mason running towards goal like they did on the score.  That's going to make some defenses play back this season.
• Its also going to make it hard for Boli to get on the field, a nice problem to have.
• Our midfield is non-existent this season.  We have yet to break 46% possession in a game and our midfield's inability to hold the ball is largely why.
• Wynne was beat on the goal, again.  He's just not MLS starter quality.  I understand we were limited in choices for this one due to injury but Miller would be a better choice.  And once Wilson is healthy Sjoberg should take Ford's spot.
• Colvey was,,,not good.  The kid got a chance but he's not ready.  Serna should play the next couple of weeks while Hairston heals.
• Howard did not look good on the goal.  Could he have saved it?  Probably not.  Should he have at least made an attempt?  Yeah.  His habit of standing there watching goals go bye this season is not exactly confidence-building.
• But hey, he got us some national media coverage after the game!
• Odd subs in this one, bringing Azira in after the tying goal had been scored.  Glad to see him finally but we needed him before the goal.
• I love the fact that we've scored every game but the stats don't back up us being that dangerous.  We rarely get corner kicks and as mentioned, we aren't controlling the ball.  I'm afraid a reversion to the mean is coming.

Man of the Match: Joe Mason.  Yeah, I went the easy route and chose the goal scorer.

Rapids Head To Their Favorite Playoff Stadium

In case you missed it :D

We're off to see our old friends in Dallas tomorrow.  Sadly its a regular season game where we're hit and miss in Texas, unlike our general success in the playoffs.  Of course Oscar 'traitor' Pareja is still in charge of F*C* Dallas though most of the former Rapids have moved on from the roster (Figueroa is still there).  Game time tomorrow is 6pm and the game is on Altitude 2 (channel 900 on Denver Comcast systems).  C38 will be at Celtic, which has been announced as the permanent home for C38 this season, with the exception of some special occasions.

Player Availability:

Injuries:

OUT: D Kortne Ford (L MCL sprain); M Shkelzen Gashi (calf injury)
QUESTIONABLE: D Marlon Hairston; D Danny Wilson

Dallas has 4 players out and another two questionable, so both teams are hurting.  Losing two key components of our defense hurts.  I feel confident with our backups for Wilson, less so with Hairston.

We could also see Wynne pushed out to Hairston's position and Miller playing in the middle but I'm guessing Hudson will want to minimize changes on the back line.  The forwards are a toss up but I expect Boli to come off the bench before he gets a start.

Prediction: 2-1 loss, goal by Mason.  The Rapids have not been a good road team for a while (one win in the last 19 road games, with never more than a single goal scored) and the Dallas is finishing a 4 game homestand to start the season.  Odds are not good for Colorado to break its road woes tomorrow.  I think we continue to improve and we don't look outmatched, but Dallas gets the result.