Sunday, June 22, 2014

U.S. Advancement Scenarios

I don't want to talk about the game other than to say that Bradley has played his two worst games in a U.S. uniform in years and cost us advancement tonight.

Here's how the U.S. can advance:

  • Beat Germany - They would win the group
  • Draw with Germany - They would finish second in the group
  • Lose to Germany - They advance in second in all of these scenarios
    • Portugal - Ghana draw
    • Portugal win and the goal difference in the two games is less than 5 combined
    • Portugal win, 5 goal differential exactly, and Portugal doesn't outscore the U.S. by more than 1
    • Ghana win, both games are 1 goal games, and Ghana doesn't outscore the U.S. by more than 1
The horror scenario is a Ghana and Germany win, that's the most likely scenario for the U.S. not to advance.  If the U.S. can't get a point then they need to be rooting for Portugal to keep it close with Ghana.

Oh, and if the U.S. loses 3-1 and Portugal wins 3-0 it would be a random draw of lots between the U.S. and Portugal to see who advances.

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